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I take all that on board Ginger but I think Ballyburn will end up running here. Townend will want one in the Supreme and one in the BB. Of the two, I don’t think Tullyhill looks like he needs to go up in distance.
I don’t see the point of running Ballyburn in the Supreme when they can win that race without him and he’s being trained as a potential Gold Cup horse
He’s 6 – Best Mate, Kicking King, War Of Attrition and Sizing John were all 5 when they placed in the SupremeGet on with his staying career
Ballyburn has pulled hard and taken a strong hold at 2 miles, Mark.
They have to take notice of what the horse does on the track.
Once Ballyburn shows he settles then he can be upped to staying trips.Value Is EverythingWhat Townend wants does not matter, CAS.
It’s the owners and trainers that make the decisions.Tullyhill isn’t in the betting for the Bingham, so he’s fairly sure of going Supreme.
But will JP want both of his best novices to run in the same race?
I seem to remember people saying he wasn’t too pleased Binnocular got beaten in the Supreme by his own (I believe it was) Captain Cee Bee.Value Is EverythingBallyburn would probably get 3 miles and is related to horses 3 miles plus. I don’t buy into this ‘pulls too hard’ theory for 2 and a half miles. He’ll win it imo.
… And I suppose Frankel would’ve won the Derby.
If a horse is rank it can do damage to its temperament and therefore its potential.
Value Is Everything“… And I suppose Frankel would’ve won the Derby.”
Nope. Trainer knew so didn’t enter him.
“What Townend wants does not matter”.
I would not say that, Ginger. I expect he will have an input.
Walsh has made it clear on those “Road to Cheltenham” programmes that he did his best to make sure horses ran in what he thought were the right races for him.
Walsh has also said he thinks stamina horses win the Supreme because they go flat out all the way but classier types are better off in this race.
The JP horses do not matter to Townend. He won’t be on them.
Ginger, I would like to say it’s a surprise that you are still clinging to this pulling too hard nonsense. I tried to throw the idea under a bus, but clearly it’s the only argument you have. The only race he hasn’t finished off relatively strongly was the last one when he was forced to go quicker than ideal to maintain a position. Have a look at the one race in which he was allowed to run over a proper trip. He careered away from the opposition, and looked like he could go round again. Perhaps Mullins had forgotten that race when stating his performances suggested going Supreme. The only thing the performances have suggested is the trainer has only managed to run him once over the right trip. Pulling has been no issue in terms of hindering his performance in any race.
JP’s horses matter to JP and he’ll have his say which race his horses will go to.
ie JP will have a lot more say in where his horses go than Townend.does with the horses he rides.Value Is EverythingJP pissed off he got the forecast in the Supreme. You are funny Ginge…
Blackbeard to conquer the World
“The only race he hasn’t finished off relatively strongly was the last one when he was forced to go quicker than ideal to maintain a position. Have a look at the one race in which he was allowed to run over a proper trip. He careered away from the opposition, and looked like he could go round again”
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I’ve looked at both races several times, Stilvi.
Again you are comparing what a horse achieved in a maiden with what he achieved in a Grade 1. He “careered away from the opposition” in a maiden. This was a horse who’s since proved capable of winning a strong grade 1 impressively enough to probably start odds-on for a Cheltenham Festival novice… So of course he would win a maiden even more impressively than the Grade 1… Even after taking a keen hold.
My arguement is solely that a trainer needs to take into account what’s happened on the track and how rivals are going to try to ruin the odds-on favourite’s chance. I could say that your only arguement is that he’s bred to stay further therefore he will.
I’d be fairly certain of Ballyburn settling well enough in a truly run race – even at 2m5f, but he is far less certain to get that truly run race in the Bingham.
In a Bingham Townend’s first job will be to settle the horse (going over the increased distance) so will need to get behind at least a few rivals (I don’t mean hold him up out the back, just behind a few). But every other jockey will be thinking… how do I (we) get this odds-on favourite beaten? If I were the jockey on the front runner I’d then slam the breaks on. Townend has to reign Ballyburn back as he’s caught… So now they are not even going true 2m5f pace. In those circumstances – looking at his past performances – Ballyburn is highly likely to at least take a strong hold if not worse… And very few horses that take a strong hold at the Cheltenham Festival win races.
Contrast that with if he runs in the Supreme. He travelled well / travelled best of all the runners through the 2m Irish Grade 1. Proving he has the pace for 2m… And was not “keen” at the trip either. So should be far easier to settle Ballyburn at the 2m Supreme trip. Especially as Mullins now has a made to measure front runner / pacemaker in Tullyhill to ensure a sound pace… Ballyburn can go with Tullyhill just as he did with the front runners in the Irish Grade 1.
Value Is EverythingI will try again, it wasn’t strong Grade 1 at Leopardstown. That race only proved that he could win a very poor Grade 1, no more than that. Apologies for repeating myself, but he had the run of the race in beating another staying type. They were the only two horses who featured. The second favourite bombed, and the rest will end up as handicappers. It was about as weak a Grade 1 as you could find. All he did was confirm bumper form with the second. No improvement on his bumper form even though this was his third run over hurdles. It is entirely possible that he achieved a good deal more in thrashing a subsequent winner in that maiden. They took plenty of hurdles out that day, making it a greater stamina test, and if anything, he benefitted from that greater stamina test. That was a field of four, no problems with pace, or pulling. Not a factor at all. In a Ballymore, Townend can dictate whatever pace he wants. It’s the others that will have the problem, and there won’t be very many of them.
That Grade 1 and the Supreme are chalk and cheese. Invariably, they go a million in a Supreme. The field will dictate to Townend. To maintain his position he is going to have to go a lot faster than he did at Leopardstown. At Leopardstown you could see how going faster than ideal impacted on his finish. In a much better race – horses won’t be so easily scared off in a Supreme – he could be literally hanging on in the straight. You could also make one mistake early in a Supreme, and it’s effectively race over. He hasn’t got anything like the pace to risk dropping him out.
So there you have it, an easy win, or a potential disaster, but despite that, the trump card may still be the Mullins ego, and trying to prove that he wasn’t wrong to run the horse over two miles. I think that thought is the only thing that Supreme backers can hang on to. It would be a very sorry state if it were true. The horse should always come first.
What price was Ballyburn for the Supreme and Bingham before the Irish Grade 1 victory?
Value Is Everything“Once Ballyburn shows he settles then he can be upped to staying trips.”
The trainer didn’t get your memo Ginger, he already ran the horse over 2 1/2 this season. On soft/heavy, on a big galloping track with an uphill finish nearly as long and steep as Cheltenham, with omitted hurdles increasing the stamina test. And he won pulling the proverbial cart by 25 lengths.
OK it was only a maiden, but have you watched the replay? He consents to take a lead from inferior horses and settles into a nice steady rhythm till the last hurdle, then turns on the afterburners and powers away, going further clear the further he goes. After the line he’s throwing his head up against being pulled up, he could go round again.Ballyburn was half the price in the ballymore than he was for the supreme before getting entered in the 2 mile at the DRF wasnt he?
Iv him backed in both so not too bothered where he goes as he’d win either easily
Atm I’d be thinking he will go here
Tullyhill/Mystical Supreme
Ballyburn/ile atlantique ballymore makes the most senseI’d fancy those two have an excellent chance of beating Firefox and jeriko in the Supreme. Its a particularly poor renewal.
I’d strongly fancy Slade steel to beat ile atlantique in the ballymore however. He’s weak in a finish and the stiff finish won’t help him.
So I’d think Willie’s best chance of winning both is running ballyburn here.
“In a Bingham Townend’s first job will be to settle the horse ”
His first job in either race will be to settle the horse. I’d rather do that at the start of a Baring Bingham tucked out of the way, than at the start of a Supreme galloping up the straight past a razzed up crowd roaring their heads off with lit up horses and razzed up jockeys trying to get a position.
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