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Mike,
Do you really think a horse that has taken a keen hold (or even pulled hard) in 3 of his 5 races under rules – including his only start at as far as 2m4f – has no chance of doing the same (or worse) when racing at 2m5f in the cauldron that is Cheltenham?Value Is EverythingTrainer remarks after maiden win over 2 1/2 (with omitted hurdle) on soft/heavy:
“Paul told me he appears keen, but it is just the way he carries his head low. He said every time he gave him a little feel on the reins, he came back underneath him.”Jockey remarks after DRF win over 2 (with omitted hurdle) on soft/ soft to heavy in places;
“It’s a bit deceiving, Willie thought I was mad when I said he wasn’t pulling too much the first day and he looked like he was pulling like a train. That’s just the way he carries himself and he can do that once he keeps winning.”Impaire et Passe and Sir Gerhard’s 2 runs before the Ballymore had the race notes “travelled strongly” for IEP and “made all” for SG.
I don’t think they’re too worried about him taking a hold, I think the main reason for going Supreme- if they do- would be to give Townend a ride with a better chance than , well Mistergif probably as he has potential, the other Mullins horses behind Mystical Power are definitely proven beatable.
“He took a keen hold at Christmas over 2 and a half and was still impressive”.
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He was “impressive” in a maiden, Mike.
When a top class horse runs in a maiden it can obviously often get away with taking a keen hold.
A top class horse is far less likely to get away with taking a keen hold or pulling hard in a Grade 1… Especially when it’s at Cheltenham, which is (stamina-wise) one of – if not “the” – stiffest course in the country…And the Festival’s unique atmosphere places greater importance on a horse’s temperament. ie Any horse that shows a temperamental flaw away from Cheltenham can often have that flaw exaggerated in the heat of Cheltenham.
How many Cheltenham Festival winners have the comment “took keen hold”? Not many.
Ballyburn’s record on the track shouts “Supreme”!
Value Is Everything“Impaire et Passe and Sir Gerhard’s 2 runs before the Ballymore had the race notes “travelled strongly” for IEP and “made all” for SG”.
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If there is no other stronger negatives in a horse’s form then there is nothing much wrong with “travelled strongly”, GaG…
But when there are other comments in other races of “took keen hold” and “pulled hard”, then it becomes more of a negative, especially when going up in trip.Value Is Everything“Trainer remarks after maiden win over 2 1/2 (with omitted hurdle) on soft/heavy:
“Paul told me he appears keen, but it is just the way he carries his head low. He said every time he gave him a little feel on the reins, he came back underneath him.”Jockey remarks after DRF win over 2 (with omitted hurdle) on soft/ soft to heavy in places;
“It’s a bit deceiving, Willie thought I was mad when I said he wasn’t pulling too much the first day and he looked like he was pulling like a train. That’s just the way he carries himself and he can do that once he keeps winning.””—————-
I’ve seen many horses over the years with a low head carriage. Some are keen, but others are unenthusiastic and some just race normally. It isn’t difficult to spot considering how much strain the jockeys arms are taking.
Mullins comes out with comments which keep his options open as regards future targets. Besides, if connections admit they are at all worried about a horse taking a keen hold / pulling then their rivals are likely to race ride to find the horse out. ie It makes sense for trainers and jockeys to play these things down.
Value Is Everything“when there are other comments in other races of “took keen hold” and “pulled hard”,”
Comments made by somebody who has perhaps never sat on a horse, not the champion jockey on the horse.“makes sense for trainers and jockeys to play these things down.”
Here are Mullins’ comments on Sir Gerhard after his DRF novice hurdle win:
“He got very keen on Paul around the top bend and when he got keen he didn’t jump well.”It would have been in Townend’s interest to say that Ballyburn was ripping his arms out, to steer the boss towards the Supreme so he got a good horse to ride in that race. He didn’t.
“when there are other comments in other races of “took keen hold” and “pulled hard”,”
Comments made by somebody who has perhaps never sat on a horse, not the champion jockey on the horse.———————–
What do form experts know, eh?
We just as well give up.
Value Is EverythingGingertipster, like you, I never take notice of what trainers say..some folks like to put up quotes, which time and time again are wide of the mark from where the horses actually end up running.
HANDSTANDS is my shout for this, currently 16/1 NRMB. Idled in front when winning a small field listed race (beating a previous grade 1 winner) but travels strongly so this race could be perfect for him.
Yeah and the horse of Nicky’s he beat last time has a lovely mark for the Martin Pipe
I suspect those who took the flyer on Ballyburn running in the Supreme are not feeling quite so pleased with themselves tonight.
It looks as if the stable has at least two viable contenders for the Supreme in Mystical Power and Tullyhill so no need at all to try and fit the square peg into the round hole, not that there should have been in the first place.
If Ballyburn does run here – which looks a lot more likely since Tullyhill won on Sunday – the standout 9/4 on Betfair could be the bet of the week.
If the connections of his nearest challenger are to be believed, they will be doing all they can to avoid him. Some of the others prominent in the betting look more likely to go down the Bartlett route.
He is already odds on with one or two of the NRNB firms.
Yes, there would likely be less than 10 runners in the Ballymore, and Townend could dictate the race. Financially, I would be much better off if some of my other bets won, but this is the potential star of the future, and it would be a travesty if a shocking decision got him beat.
But it’s Mullins, the market sees him playing silly buggers for another few weeks. If sanity prevails it should be a million for the Supreme, but it isn’t. I think you have to take on board the bookmakers want him in the Supreme. They have more than a fair chance of getting him beat in that race. I think that’s why we haven’t seen a graphic for the Ballymore all season. It would be bonkers to take on Tullyhill, Mystical Power, and Firefox, when you have the opportunity to dot up in the other race. I am hopeful, but not confident, clearly there are forces still at work who think bonkers is good.
I could see Ballyburn going off around 5/2 (or even bigger if they really try to get him) for the Supreme, and 4/5 for the Ballymore.
Just as well I took some of it last night, albeit only a pittance (I was close to my daily loss limit).
They were out on a limb and the price would probably not have lasted anyway.
The 9/4 would be 10/11 once the NRNB comes into it.
Whole point of the 9/4 is you might lose if running in the Supreme.
I’d have thought 10/11 NRNB is a better price than the 9/4 all in.On Betfair exchange Ballyburn is currently 2.65/1 for the Bingham and 2.35/1 for the Supreme.
2.65/1 is equal to 27.4%
2.35/1 is equal to 29.85%
27.4 + 29.85 = 57.25%
57.25% of winning either of the two races.So if backing both horses at those prices you’d effectively end up taking almost 8/11 about winning any of the two races.
Value Is Everything
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