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Axioms and guidelines

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  • #11717
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Not quite the right words, but I sometimes go blank for an appropriate expression.

    Are there any guidelines for betting or selection that you believe in, even though you don’t strictly follow them?

    One of mine is to only back a horse in the second part of the (Flat) season that has already won a race that season. The difference about this guideline is that I made it up myself, rather than reading it or coming across it somewhere else.

    Because it is my own invention, I don’t know when the second half of the season starts! I suppose strictly it is about Glorious Goodwood time, but I’ll have a go seeing how it works from July 1st. I’ll start a thread in Daily Lays & Plays, and see how it goes (h’caps only).

    The idea behind it is that horses and other athletes have good years and bad. If the preparation didn’t go right and there are some niggles, the situation probably isn’t going to improve until you’ve had an end-of-season break and a preparation for a fresh season.

    #233491
    Tuffers
    Member
    • Total Posts 1402

    Don’t back a horse in a 3yo only handicap (soon to be don’t run a horse in a 3yo only handicap :roll: )

    Don’t back 3yos against older horses before Royal Ascot and don’t back them at all against older horses in sprint handicaps.

    #233513
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    Don’t back a horse in a 3yo only handicap (soon to be don’t run a horse in a 3yo only handicap :roll: )

    Especially if Jamie Spencer is up! 8)

    #233514
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    I have to disagree, 3yo handicaps are a good betting medium, each to their own

    #233516
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I think Tuffers is talking slightly tongue-in-cheek here in reference to his filly Feet Of Fury – see thread entitled "Expert Opinion Required" a bit further down the page.

    #233562
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1988

    Never back the offcasts of top trainers on their first run for Peter Grayson.

    #233583
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    The Race Planning Cttee, or whatever, seem to have arranged it so that 3yos don’t meet their elders in h’caps in the first part of the season anymore.

    I don’t know about 3yos against their elders in general, but I always oppose or ignore horse having their sprint h’cap debut, especially if they’re favourite. (Erm, I oppose virtually every favourite anyway.)

    #233625
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Ignore all speed figures, they are just made up.

    #233634
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Ignore all speed figures, they are just made up.

    In 2003 I had my biggest bet of the season on Bonus at Lingfield, after he had recorded an enormous figure at Salisbury. Later that season I realised my par figure for 6f at Salisbury was a second out . . .

    (Just looked up the horse – sadly he died or was put down earlier this year.:cry: )

    #233639
    Trickmeister
    Participant
    • Total Posts 96

    I should come clean here and say that I treat my betting rather like racehorse ownership – a journey of hope rather than expectation. It’s likely to cost me more than I get back, but it allows me to back my judgement (such as it is) and be more involved.

    At one level my betting strategy is undisciplined, emotional and subjective – Horse/Jockey/Trainer has ‘done me a favour in the past’, backed the creature last (dozen!) times, back the only C&D winner just to have an interest in the race, or I even remember someone mentioning the beast on this forum in the past! On its own an approach that would wipe out any more carefully accumulated profit!

    Having said that I do try to minimise my losses,

    I like to analyse a race, where I have time, but I do find myself applying my Dads axiom of not backing a horse to do something it’s never done before. I use it particularly in relation to combinations of Distance, Class of Race, Going, type of track and Handicap Mark. It’s not a binding rule and you have to apply some judgement (especially in the case of fast improving animals), but it’s handy for older horses in specialist circumstances like 7 furlong or 9furlong races on the flat or 2m 6f and 3m 2f over fences.

    Another principle handed down to me is ‘better a 3/1 winner than a 20/1 loser’. Now I know the more serious punters will tell me it’s all about value, but what about the punter like me who likes to back winners (don’t we all)?

    It frustrates me when I hear a telly pundit say that they think a horse will win but they’re too short a price, or ‘I fancied him at 10s this morning but I’m not so sure now he’s down to 9/2. Surely a winner’s a winner, especially to some one like me.

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