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HOTZAHELL 33/1
While a dissapoint run in America what this needs is heavy or soft ground to be at his best. Beat Delecroix last year in RP trophy
With FOG injured got time to come back but I think the selection worth it ew especially if gets his ground
So many unreliable horses in this race I can see a big priced winner. Anybodys guess which field of gold turns up and lion in winter I’m sure will be placed but will probably find one too good. Id be looking at fallen angel if she goes. Will run her race and that may be good enough.
I had Cicero’s Gift in mind for something at the start of the season, but it certainly wasn’t this. Looks beyond him, but not been able to bet him last few runs because of price, so at 109’s, happy to chance him Antepost
Final Decs
Had top up to four places, and if I see better than 100’s, I’ll take that as well
Cicero’s Gift 100’s EW4Pls
DOCKLANDS and FACTEUR CHEVAL for me . Both Have good course form and Docklands will love the ground if the rain stays away. I couldn’t back either of the front two with any confidence because like someone has already a which one is going to turn up . Fallen Angel might be interesting too if she recovers from her previous run in time but if pushed I would be on Docklands who should love the ground trip and the course which makes him a solid each way pick for me
DOCKLANDS 14/1 e/w
all go to post except the obvious Delacroix ( which i would have probably put up AP
)Fallen Angel – 17/2 (Paddy Power)
The fiesty mare can put up her best fight to beat the boys tomorrow.
The closer they get the faster she’ll run..
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...7/1 for Never So Brave was too big to ignore. 7f group 1 winner last time, group 2 over c+d before that. I’d have been happy with 4’s.
Docklands is better at Ascot than anywhere else. But Eustace was in the form of his life Royal Ascot week. When a stable’s horses are running so outstandingly well (particularly a relatively small stable) they can be confidently opposed afterwards. The performance ratings put up by those horses at that time are often career bests; never quite at that level again… Eustace is not in at all bad form right now, but nothing like he was mid June. So even with Docklands coming back to Ascot I can’t see him being good enough for win purposes… Place only – possibly.
Dancing Gemini would have a chance at his best. But I am convinced he’s a Spring / Early Summer horse.
Fallen Angel was impressive in the Sun Chariot and is the one “in form”. But the amount of chance relies on the ground. Although she has plenty of form on “Good”; there’s a fairly big chance of not being quite so effective on good-firm.
Never So Brave is also “in form”, but is that form good enough? The City Of York was a Group 1 but the actual form doesn’t look real Group 1 standard. That said, that was back at 7f and there’s a chance a mile is his optimum and could yet progress. As is stable Companion Marvelman. However, I’m not so sure the Balding second string will be good enough or whether he’ll stay.
Facteur Cheval has been second in the last two QEII’s but that has been on softer ground (where fewer horses have run to form). He also hasn’t been in as good form this season.
With his trainer in much better form than previously this term, I was disappointed Tamfana couldn’t do better Arc weekend. She was weak in the market so did she need her first start in a long while? At her best isn’t out of this, but needs to find a lot in a couple of weeks and possibly would’ve liked it softer.
Alakazi is one with different form lines. Shouldn’t really be good enough but I can see him outrunning his odds for an in form Johnny Murtagh.
The (forgotten) Lion In Winter was only a neck behind Rosallion in the Moulin last time. On that line of form TLIW deserves to be a lot shorter today. But the Hannon horse was probably quite a bit below his best there in a muddling race. Rosallion hasn’t been at his 2024 best all season. Albeit the sectionals shown at Goodwood strongly hint he’s still capable of it…
However, Field Of Gold is probably a better horse at their bests. The Gosden horse is much better than he showed at Goodwood. In all probability didn’t handle the course. We know from his excellent St James’s Palace he acts well at Ascot. Progressive prior to the Sussex and could still be the outstanding racehorse he looked like turning into early on in the season – especially as the going is not soft. That said, if he is that good, would the money have come for Carl Spackler? CP was one of the very best American milers last year and disappointed for his short term Aussie trainer earlier on in the year. In truth they were better performances than it appeared, having pulled his chance away. If settling well and… Now on first start for the in form Gosden yard…
My two main bets are the Gosden pair.
Value Is EverythingI want to take on Field of Gold.. first run back after a setback. 2/1 for a reason, would be odds on if they knew he was at his best.
Best Miler in the world Rosallion it is then…
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Never So Brave also , he can only beat what’s behind him and he’s done so with authority
Fallen Angel for me.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Jac
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