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- This topic has 196 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 2 months ago by
sporting sam.
- AuthorPosts
- May 8, 2023 at 00:45 #1647071
Japan
Morioka 3.50
Figures8067036343231370-679775
Yamanin Epurer
Each way
Has only run over course and distance once since winning in November.
Good form up to winning and has hated the longer trips since. Change of running routine in three runs last month and switched back to five furlongs today. There is a tissue for the race but it rarely reflects the SP so I make my own. Prices don’t come up until ten minutes before the off and the expected 5/1 can often be 33/1 or much lower than 5/1.
There are very few angles to exploit so I find my own…..
These selections did not fit in the Alexanders or anywhere else.
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Unplaced.May 8, 2023 at 07:45 #1647078Grand Federigo
A Shin Niarchos
Both win
Reverse Forecast
07.50 Morioka
(A very slow burner this one.)May 8, 2023 at 08:14 #1647079It did not take long.
A Shin Niarchos
25/1 winner.
(To be fair I have been working away on this for a while.)May 8, 2023 at 08:23 #1647082Morioka
8 25Prince Charm
Win.
Godolphin runner unbeaten in three runs for new stable.
Different track now though the negative.
Unlikely winner here but in form nonetheless….
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Round up.
Just beaten a neck by stall 6 stall 9 was third.
Selection was in stall 4…..
Three races yielded a Winner @ 25/1
1 step around the world 🌍.May 8, 2023 at 11:12 #1647094There is always one more…..
Saga 1125
Black Aries
Win
twice second to successor and previously rafelle. Both have gone on to win again including rafelle today. If carrying on that line of form, should go well now.
Added
Maruhachi Apollon
Each way
Drawn in stall 1 and on a hat trick todayMay 9, 2023 at 07:09 #16471557.30 Ohi
Hakuai Coral
Each way
Debut for new yard.
Two wins this year and beaten favourite five times over last year. Consistent pattern of placed runs.
Wins have been early in March and February.
Unplaced last few runs.May 9, 2023 at 07:26 #1647156Opened at 7/2
So now a win bet along with
The horse
East way
Each way
East way was a very good second last time outMay 9, 2023 at 07:55 #1647157Great start with the 25/1 winner..✅
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
May 9, 2023 at 10:21 #1647159Thanks Nathan.
I’m running this across two platforms.
So not all the selections will appear on here.
The way around that will be to do it one place at a time. I’m getting feedback there and little here. All of the feedback there is positive and no one says “are you on crack”!! But thanks for popping in positively Nathan.
May 9, 2023 at 10:42 #1647161OHI. 1055
Unendlichkeit
Malabacat
Both winUnendlichkeit
Touched off here on last run by a neck reoposes same runner here. Very high draw and may be able to come over the top.
Third horse home won yesterday.
Malabacat off the track 347 days but a winner here prior to that in only other recorded run.May 9, 2023 at 10:44 #1647162Negativity is best ignored Sam… Don’t let it get to you if possibly, focus on the positives
you are well liked on here and a well respected judge amongst the majority on TRF.
Everyone has different ways of betting and its a tough game to make consistent profits from
The poster you mention called me stupid in around about way in a Cheltenham discussion, my horse finished in front of his and he had picked the favourite …
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
May 9, 2023 at 10:47 #1647164You are so right buddy.
Interestingly the winner of the aforementioned previous race Win Brioso has opened up at 14/1
The other two are huge odds too.
I’m going to do a combination forecast all three.May 9, 2023 at 11:26 #1647169Right
Win brioso
Was placed at 18/1
The others nowhere.
Conclusion.
There is a big angle to work on here, but with limited information.
Obviously I don’t want to be on a 1/10 shot.
But I do want to be on a last time out winner who opens at 14/1 when the form has been franked.
I didn’t expect win brioso to open up at such a big price but I’d already put up the selections.
The ability to change your mind and move quickly once the prices appear are important here. So I’m stopping the thread immediately to do a little bit more research.
I will flag up a race as one I’m doing about twenty or so minutes beforehand in future and then post the selections if I think they are viable.
This suits me as I’m an at the post punter anyway.May 9, 2023 at 12:00 #1647173A test selection for the 1210 Ohi coming up.
May 9, 2023 at 12:06 #1647174OHI 1210
Smart C’est La Vie
Each way
Capano Jacky
Each way
Both course winners and capano Jacky won on 10th may last year.
Smart C’est La Vie was a winner two runs ago.
Both opened up at 25/1 more the sort of prices I’m looking for with form. Short prices are not off putting either of they are not odds on. Both horses are drawn middle and high.May 10, 2023 at 09:58 #1647235OHI 1020
151121830-509
Maen jaran
Each way
( Win if shorter than 5/1)
Went on a run of multiple wins culminating in a win here 364 days ago. 11/5/22
All wins for same jockey, switched yard at that point and just placed once.
Switched to original yard and returns to scene of last win.
Reunited with jockey who won 4 of his last six rides on this horse.
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Beaten a neck fourth
@11/2May 10, 2023 at 12:04 #1647241A quick skip from Japan to Sha Tin
Figures09-454978
Sha Tin 1215
Fingers crossed 🤞
Each way
In form trainer.
This runner drops in grade for dirt debut.
Interesting ( to me) missed prior appointment.
Last time that happened posted a fourth place on return.
Additional headgear on to go with usual tongue tie. Most important factor dropped to lowest mark. The only thing I haven’t checked is the racing weight. Not relevant as he’s yet to win. Retains jockey partnership. - AuthorPosts
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