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Thanks Bos’ unfortunately (for me) you make good sense and I take your point about scope. I just thought Free World was a target Arkle horse and the Old Course would suit him better than Sandown.
Can’t say i am a big fan of Calgary Bay though…his profile and connections previous history would not point to the Arkle for me.I wouldn’t dismiss CB too quickly. I had a tickle at 40/1 as I don’t think anything is outstanding.
I would be happy to back him on Friday against Afsoun who Mick Fitz reckons is a long cry from a natural jumper.of fences…….John Quinns Kings Quay was backed for plenty by connections, when he took adavatage of Afsoun falling last time out. He won so well he may well have beat him anyway as he had gone off way to ast when fallng at the 6th.
Afsoun no doubt will start favoute but if this horse can beat him they will cut him to shreds in the betting.
Calgary Bay has an enormous following on here and I must admit I am puzzled why that is. He seems to get beaten at short prices on a regular basis, to my eye there is a suspicion about his resolution and when he went into Festival conditions he disappeared out of the back of TV.
As well as some respected contributors on this forum Tony McCoy and Henrettia Knight rate him an Arkle prospect and so I must be missing something. Tomorrows race is exactly the kind of event he usually finishes 2nd in …at about 11/10. I just don’t get CB.I think you will find he was a big backward bugger who looked the ideal chasing type.
Anything he was going to do over hurdles was always going to be a bounus and give him racing experience for the future.
If he is what he looks lke he should do very well over fences but in this game there are no guarantees.
Calgary Bay has an enormous following on here and I must admit I am puzzled why that is. He seems to get beaten at short prices on a regular basis, to my eye there is a suspicion about his resolution and when he went into Festival conditions he disappeared out of the back of TV.
As well as some respected contributors on this forum Tony McCoy and Henrettia Knight rate him an Arkle prospect and so I must be missing something. Tomorrows race is exactly the kind of event he usually finishes 2nd in …at about 11/10. I just don’t get CB.I can understand why you question his resolution, Shabby. He’s only got his head in front once in eight starts, despite travelling well on almost every occasion.
There’s a number of things in his favour, particularly his undoubted physical potential as a chaser. He won a tactical affair at Cheltenham (another big plus that he handles the course) where he beat Snap Tie and I’msingingtheblues, so he obviously has a good turn of foot.
His hurdles form looks stronger now than it did at the time and, given the bullish comments by connections and Tony McCoy, he could be really useful over fences.
His trainer is very good at bringing horses along slowly and educating them, especially those she’s really fond of. I think she’s always seen him as a chaser and anything he achieved over hurdles was a bonus.
Again, I understand why you question his resolution, but I’m willing to believe that his defeats were a case of needing a fence more than anything. When he was beaten by Oscar Bay, I think it was the trip and at Cheltenham there were just too many sharper than him and he never really got into a rhythm.
I wouldn’t give up on Free World. He’s a good horse (although I expect to see better by Cheltenham) and Paul Nicholls will have him primed for March.
Fair enough Bos’ I am certainly looking forward to seeing him run now but he just doesn’t look like a horse that is quick enough…although I accept his best performance was off a very slow pace at Cheltenham.
Still I am hardly putting my neck on the line with my 33 to 1 on chance that he won’t win the Arkle.But what he looks like Fist …is far too slow for the Arkle.
Perhaps you should be using the word was instead of is….you are simply not allowing for any improvement in a horse who was said to be a big backward sort by none other than Tony McCoy.
Irrespectie of what you thought about his Cheltenham win he showed enough pace to leave Snap Tie and Imsingingtheblues behind last December.
I doubt if anyone expected too much of him at the festival, perhaps the owner wanted to run him as many do but he was never really put into the race by Timmy Murphy and had a nice quite run round at the back.
On his final apperance when 2nd to Planet Sound he had a couple of nice horses behind him in PN’s Free World and Nicky Henderson’s Working Title. Both of which won over hurdles the latter having won 3 times.
I would think for him he did enough for a big backward type to suggest when he goes over fences he will be a totally different proposition……..Granted he may not have been the fastest hurdler around far from it, but he is far from being slow. He travels well in his races will be a much stronger horse now, has gained a fair bit of experience and I can understand why his connections are looking forward to him running and McCoy is looking forward to riding him…….Good enough to win the Arkle? I honestly think he could be and that’s why I backed him at 40/1……compared to Free World at 14/1 I think he’s a good sportin bet,
You make some fair points Fist and maybe you are right and I haven’t factored enough for improvement…but there is something in his gait and approach that I instinctively dont like.
Free World is 20/1 this morning and Calgary Bay is 33/1…to me the Nicholls horse is the better bet at those prices.
Different story perhaps for those already on at big prices, good luck.I’msingingtheblues and Calgary Bay have been declared to run in the John Murphy Novices’ Chase at Doncaster tomorrow (13.45).
I’msingingtheblues beat Greenbridge impressively on his chase debut at Kempton, but the form has not worked out well. The Alan King trained runner-up was well beaten next time.
He returned to the track next time and found Briarius, who had been sidelined for nearly two years, one length too good.
Calgary Bay defeated I’msingingtheblues in a Cheltenham novice hurdle this time last year. He has always been considered a ‘long-term’ project and there’s no doubt he would’ve been well schooled for his chase debut.
CG also holds an entry in the 12.30 at Doncaster on Saturday.
I’msingingtheblues looked a natural over fences on his debut, but was pressured into a few mistakes on his second start. It will be interesting to see how he handles Calgary Bay if the Henrietta Knight-trained horse jumps fluently and travels well.
With Free World looking vulnerable at Sandown over the weekend, a defeat for I’msingingtheblues will leave little doubt that Tatenen will be Ditcheat’s number one for the Arkle.
It will be a tough call tomorrow. I’msingingtheblues has the benefit of an outing and the experience, but Calgary Bay showed his class when beating Snap Tie last December, with ISTB back in third.
Interesting…
*EDIT 17.45* An interesting article…
A good run from Calgary Bay. As good a round of jumping from a novice I’ve seen this season. He was economical, clever when he got in close and his jump at the last when under pressure was awesome.
What a great big, good looking horse he is.
Fitness and match sharpness told in the end. I’m not sure if I’ve seen an Arkle winner, but his jumping, Cheltenham experience from last season and a stronger pace will see him to greater effect.
I’m delighted with that.
If he can do that when he was obviously unfit I can’t wait tosee what he does when he’s spot on………horse jumps like a stag and looked like he ia born chaser… Hen and Terry could really be onto something’……looks to have a great future and you won’t be seeing any 40/1 after that.
A few people now questioning his resolution, Fist.
I can see where they’re coming from. He’s only got his head in front once in his career and took a lead at the last before being battled out of it.
Was it due to resolution or fitness? We’ll find out more next time.
That’s the only reserve I have about him. That’s why I’m not sure if I’ve seen an Arkle winner, but on pure ability he’s a really attractive ew proposition for the race.
On class, potential and jumping he has nothing to fear. Ability can get you close, but I think you need guts to win an Arkle and this horse will need to fight in March.
Of course, I’d rather have a horse that has an engine to start with because guts can only get you so far. CG ticks all the right boxes for the Arkle. He travels, jumps, acts around Cheltenham and picks up well in his races. I think he’ll be better off a stronger pace over fences and on the whole I’d be delighted with what I saw today.
Interesting that he’s only won with AP in the saddle. If there’s one jockey that can push a horse to the finish, it’s him. I hope he’s on next time.
As one who has questioned his resolution, I would say it is difficult to tell if it was lack of resolution or lack of fitness today. The symptoms are sometimes similar. I wouldn’t say he was obviously not fit.
A nice horse but is fairly experienced now and not a raw recruit, not the Arkle for me still and Terry B said, "you won’t see him at two miles from now on"…they will move him up in trip.As one who has questioned his resolution, I would say it is difficult to tell if it was lack of resolution or lack of fitness today. The symptoms are sometimes similar. I wouldn’t say he was obviously not fit.
A nice horse but is fairly experienced now and not a raw recruit, not the Arkle for me still and Terry B said, "you won’t see him at two miles from now on"…they will move him up in trip.Interesting comment by Terry. The horse didn’t appear to stay two miles-four at Exeter last season, but it could be a different story in this discipline.
I wouldn’t exactly call a 5YO with just nine runs under his belt, making his debut over fences as being experienced, especially one that was considered immature last season.
Raw is one word I would use to describe him. Judging by his size as a 5YO, I guarantee you won’t see the best of him for another year or two. He has more potential than most and Henrietta has always considered him a long-term project.
I haven’t seen a novice jump better than him thus far and whatever novice event connections decide upon at Cheltenham, he’ll be thereabouts.
He travels, jumps and picked up really well today when asked. A horse with resolution issues wouldn’t come to challenge the way he did. However, I’m open to the possibility that he isn’t the greatest fighter in the world.
He has more attributes than most I’ve seen this season and the potential there is immense. A horse to seriously look forward to.
I would agree with you Bos’ that he looks a two miler and I was surprised by TB’s remarks, but they were right after the race so with reflection they may take another view.
He has run 9 times now (thats a career for most NH horses) so he shouldn’t be raw imho. His jumping wasn’t raw it was fine, he ran straight and seemed to know his job as you would expect from a horse with his number of runs. Its just a matter of putting his head in front…was it fitness or was it resolution?
I not at all sure that a big field will suit him as he was uncompetitive in those conditions last year. As to his resolution I think you can make a case both ways …I would like to see him win a battle though.
I think its fair to say I am still in the sceptic camp but thats probably because I tend to look at every horse from an ante post perspective and he is one I would definetly swerve from that POV.
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