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I wouldn’t take a gamble with DD as KK went way off the boil last season and I thought I had done my money. To be honest come the race I forgot I had backed him ante post in the Supreme EW and was so involved in Binocular I never even knew he was running…..so it was a pleasant surprise.
I would expect it’s very possible Kalahai King as Ferdy is a very shrewd man and I don’t always believe what I see where he is concerned.
Calgary Bay was awesome yesterday. .
My one worry as far as my ante post bet is concerned is he has the same connections as Best Mate and they might try and run before they can walk with him and throw him in at the deep end.
The logical thing to do with so little time left between now and then would be to run in the Arkle. I see they plan to run him over 2m4Fat Sandown but that’s a big step away from the RSA trip.
There is plenty time to run him over the longer trip between two fesitivals if he is a possible canditate Gold Cup next season
I see Knight was suggesting Calgary Bay, being such a well built, long striding horse, might get outpaced in an Arkle. She was making a similar point to that which Alan King made about Araldur when he said he feared the horse would be badly outpaced down the hill in an Arkle. I take their point to an extent, though of course two of the last three winners of the Arkle have been well built, quite long striding types (Tidal Bay and My Way De Solzen). And arguably it is not entirely an advantage to be a smaller, nippier type in the Arkle, as the race can get rough, with plenty of bumping and fighting for position, and smaller horses (as with Fair Along in the Arkle a couple of seasons ago) can be disadvantaged in that respect. Though, on the other hand, a bit of tactical speed helps in avoiding trouble in running.
Can I ask if anyone has heard anything about Fiveforthree? I may have missed an update on the horse, but is he still likely to run this season or has there been a setback? I remember the trainer saying he thought the horse had the gears for an Arkle, though obviously the RSA could be another target.
"Fivforthree" is 160 for the Arkle and 46 for the RSA on the machine,
being related to "Celestial gold" he"s the last piece of the RSA jigsaw
in my opinion! Never jumped a fence yet! Clocks ticking!Dont worry about fiveforthree, Mullins said ages ago that he would probably make his reappearance in late january or february with a similar sort of campaign route as he had followed last season, have had a go on him for the R+SA but hard to know if thats the definite target.
Couldnt be ruled out of the arkle as he comes up the hill quite well and it should be a competetive pacy race this year.
The RSA is the target at the moment Bulwark. He has jumped fences for the record just not in public and if he doesn’t go in the RSA but goes to Cheltenham it will be for the World Hurdle.
Calgary Bay looks much more of a career two miler to me than a Gold Cup horse but I have been wrong before.
Interestingly re his jumping… a few good judges have often pointed out that novices who have barely made a mistake before a real big test often come to grief when the hammer goes down in a big field championship race. Examples of these being…Thisthatntother and Mulligan in the Arkle.
Whereas those talented novices who’s jumping has been sketchy in their early chases (Moscow and Tidal Bay for example) have worked things out by the time the big day arrives.I don’t know about how accurate that is shabby but Nick Dundee wasanother brilliant novice who suffered in that way.
I was thinking way back to another huge horse some claimed for a short time was the new Arkle… King Cutler who, if I remember right, hadn’t even jumped a fence when they were banding him with that handle.
I can’t remember where his career went but he disappered of the scene very quickly. Really big horses seem to never quite make the grade somehow
CB does travel very well and did it all very easily. Looks like he could stay 3 miles easily but as I say it seems a silly gamble at this stage of his career to be thinkng about going there. With youth comes speed with some horses a year later they coldn’t win over 2 miles for love nor money. Big horse like him could lose his speed faster than an average sized horse,,,,,that of course is debatable.
Although he failed to win it PN for me did the right thing with Noland……found him a couple of easy races then sent him to Chelters.
That wasn’t what you could call an easy race he won, but if they could find another one like that soon and keep him sweet I think he would benfit more from that than runing ar Sandown which could be a bit too competitive so close to the Arkle,
Following on from Fist’s point about the promising bigger horses often seeming not to make the grade at top level, I suppose these horses often fall between two stools. On the good ground we often get at the major festivals the really big horses tend to lack the tactical speed and turn of foot to make a mark over the shorter distances. But then their size and heaviness can be against them making the grade as out and out stayers over the longer trips in a career of reasonable duration.
Easy enough to think of exceptions though. Among other things, what was so fantastic about Arkle was that he combined amazing athleticism and power with the ability to stay long distances and sustain long bursts of relentless galloping even under extreme top weight. Arkle’s size seemed nothing other than an advantage to the horse on the race track. Likewise, the way Denman engaged high gear and went away from the field on the second circuit in the 2008 Gold Cup was also pretty amazing, but it makes me wonder how much more it takes out of a horse Denman’s size to put in that kind of unyielding effort in a stayers race at top level.
I suppose one of the key advantages that the talented really big horses have is their ability to lengthen their stride, and thereby make up ground or open up a significant lead very quickly, in the latter stages of a race that has been run off a relatively modest early pace, and particularly so on softer ground. I guess Denman’s Gold Cup win was a good example of that. The first circuit was run at a fairly average pace, leaving Denman enough in the tank to really lengthen his stride and gallop away from the field on the second circuit with a sustained burst of speed.
When a lead horse has opened up a gap in the last few furlongs of a race, it is hard for the following horses to make up the ground at the best of times and especially on softer ground. But when the horse in front has the physical advantage of a much longer stride (and often allied to having more scope/length at the hurdles/fences), the task of closing down the lead horse would seem to be made many times harder. In that context, a big horse can look really impressive winning his races (Denman in the Gold Cup, Sizing Europe in the AIG, Detroit City in the Greatwood), But it does seem there are particular race conditions that facilitate that kind of (eyecatching) performance from the bigger horses and those conditions can often be thwarted tactically by opponents or else they aren’t the conditions most typical of the major championship races.
Having said that, I would love to see a size-based 1-2-3 in this year’s Arkle, so a tricast of Original, Calgary Bay and Araldur in that order should fit the bill.
Calgary Bay has been the one for me before he even jumped a fence, but does anyone know why I’msingingtheblues is still a 33/1 chance? I know Paul Nicholls has Tatenen, but he’d be mad not to target this chap at the race, too.
He showed courage to beat CB at Doncaster in December and found King George fourth, Briareus, just 1L too good the time before. He also jumps well and handles the track.
If HK decides to bypass Cheltenham, I’d be inclined to have a few quid on I’msingingtheblues.
I think Terry and Hen have at long last woke up to the fact that this does not have the look of a good Arkle. He looks certain to run now
Calgary Bay holds two entries for Saturday.
The Montpelier Group Lightning Novices’ Chase at Ascot over two miles one furlong. Free World, Palomar and Planet Of Sound could oppose.
However, I think HK would prefer a trip to Haydock for the Altcar Novices’ Chase over two miles four furlongs. Massini’s Maguire is also entered.
Should tell us more about his Arkle prospects. Would love to see him clash with Free World at Ascot but, weather pending, I think connections will take him to Haydock.
Does anyone else not think Free World of Paul Nicholls has a chance. His run at Sandown was pretty smart and Clive Smith came out and said although the horse might prefer Aintree he would like to see it race in the Arkle.
Due to run tomorrow, i think it could turn out to be a pretty smart horse.Calgary Bay holds two entries for Saturday.
The Montpelier Group Lightning Novices’ Chase at Ascot over two miles one furlong. Free World, Palomar and Planet Of Sound could oppose.
However, I think HK would prefer a trip to Haydock for the Altcar Novices’ Chase over two miles four furlongs. Massini’s Maguire is also entered.
Should tell us more about his Arkle prospects. Would love to see him clash with Free World at Ascot but, weather pending, I think connections will take him to Haydock.
Hen was quoted as saying that he would go wherever AP can ride him.
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