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I’ve heard a few poo pooing the AL RIFFA form from pundits et al this week but I thought he showed a sweet turn of foot to win by 5 lengths in a group 1. German race so it’s poo pooed. Finishing 2nd to City Of Troy? poo pooed because soft ground.
Yutaka Take to get Japan closer to winning the Arc by victory on an Irish hoss. 17/2 5 places. Good luck and good luck Botchy, 100/1, that’s sweet.Ive been on look de vega since the start of summer, never a fan of the campaign hes had though, and id say even at 8s hes shoet enough now (im on at 16s and id say thats about the price he should be)
Sosie for obvious reasons looks like the charyn of the 3yos, just improving as the season goes on, although i dont like how close delius got lto compared to there previous run, tamfana and co in behind so form has substance, i may add in but havent yet
Did fancy bluestocking for this but i think she’ll come up short again, a solid e/w bet though, hard to see her outside the 4 imo
Los angeles has been a favourite of mine this season, but i think the price is all wrong and id be more a layer than a backer at current prices, hes versatile in his run style but imo i can see him having a bit of a nightmare trip here
Its a solid race with no apparent stand out, the others i havent mentioned have a chance
Ill be have a score on haya zark @140s though and a bit more on him to place in the top 5, albeit the ganay run was early in the season, a replication of that will put him in with an outsiders chance, id probably have him about 40-50/1 rather than 140/1
In the Irish Champion, Los Angeles ran to pretty much the same rating at 10f as he’d previously achieved at 12. That – with stamina as his known forte – strongly suggests to me he’ll do better / improve (possibly significantly) back at 12f. Especially with softish ground placing even more emphasis on stamina and the stable in brilliant form. imo LA should be favourite.
I’d have been very keen on the Japanese horse had the ground been better. Shin Emperor was 3rd in the Japanese Derby, beaten only by a couple that ran more prominently in a slowish run race. Then staying on 3rd in the Irish Champion. But although his sire is known for getting plenty of soft surface horses, to my eyes Shin Emperor doesn’t have a soft ground action. So there is at least a question mark against him being as effective today which brings his chance down.
Bluestocking is perhaps the best value in the race. Disappointed in the International, but that was 10f on good-firm – insufficient test of stamina. Looked beaten in both the Pretty Polly (10f) and the Vermaille (12f) before staying on strongly to win. Only found one too good in the King George on a sound surface. That form is right up with the best of today’s field and an even greater stamina test may bring a bit more improvement.
The Prix Niel first and third have obvious chances. Look De Vega beat Sosie 2 1/4 lengths in the Prix Du Jockey Club. But that was a slowly run 10f on soft ground where the winner seemed best suited by the test of speed. LDV did well to win by 2 lengths, but the closeness of the second and fifth First Look and Mondo Man that day (on the face of it) keep the form down. Sosie has improved since then – over further – in the Grand Prix De Paris beating Illinois 2 lengths. Then reversing places with Look De Vega (who reportedly badly needed the run) in third. The second – Delius – hasn’t had much racing. Placed behind Sosie in both races and probably flattered to split the two more fancied runners last time out. LDV is lightly raced himself, so almost certainly has more improvement in him, but whether that will be under these circumstances is in question. Of the two I can understand why Sosie is shorter in the betting, but he too needs to improve to win this and is currently imo a bit short in the betting.
Al Riffa is Timeform top rated. So they are certainly not poo pooing. Although that is still a fair way behind the median average for an Arc; which to me means this is likely to go to an improver. For me – Al Riffa’s form both in Germany and in the Eclipse is very good, but others are more likely to improve or improve at a greater rate. That said, he is imo at least a little over-priced. I’ve saved on him.
It is unusual with such a seemingly open race that few of the outsiders appeal.
Zarakem ran an excellent race in the Prince Of Wales behind Auguste Rodin – that form gives him a chance. But then ran an awful race in the International. A market move would be interesting but the trainer is in nothing like the form he was in at the time of Royal Ascot.
Haya Zark won a slowly run Ganay before beaten by Mqse De Sevigne in the D’Isphahan and by the Channon horse Certain Lad in a Listed event. Latter was getting 6 lbs though, so a pretty good effort by Haya Zark at least in the context of his own form. More needed here.
Mqse De Sevigne herself is the winner of 5 Group 1’s and is in form. But never won by far and does not seem to be improving, hasn’t beaten a top notcher either… And the way she wins her races at lesser distances doesn’t indicate improvement upped to 12f – far from it.
Fantastic Moon has some very good German form and did win last season’s Prix Niel. Form that could see him placed here. However, in a close, open contest where the winner will probably be one that shows improvement – Fantastic Moon has had plenty of racing and seems unlikely to progress further.
Sevenna’s Knight hasn’t won at Group 1 level even at staying trips. Unlikely to figure unless a monsoon hits Paris.
Continuous is one I am interested in at a price. His Leger form is good and only beaten 3 1/4 lengths in (what looks on paper) a better quality Arc last year on good-firm. It’s possible more of a test of stamina could bring more improvement. Trouble is he’s been a bit disappointing this term, including 2 1/2 lengths third in the Foy when a fraction of odds-on. However, the excellent form of the O’Brien yard means there just might be a return to form. 33/1 worth at least a saver.
Sunway is fancied by some. Quite close to the idling Los Angeles in the Irish Derby – staying on. But didn’t do any better when 4th (placed 3rd for interference) in the Leger. Not beaten through stamina. If he was to win an Arc I’d have expected more at Donny.
Survie was second in the Prix De Diane, but may have been flattered that day in a slowish run affair. Winner of a Group 2 since but a well beaten 7th behind Bluestocking last time out in the Vermeille. Appears outclassed.
The Vermeille second Aventure looked the likely winner before Bluestocking fought back, but that was still a PB for Aventure… And with only 7 runs to her name there could be more to come here. I make her a fair 16/1 shot and is available @ 22/1.
My latest 100% Book:
4/1 LOS ANGELES
11/2 Sosie
7/1 Shin Emperor
8/1 Al Riffa
8/1 BLUE STOCKING
8/1 Look De Vega
16/1 AVENTURE
25/1 Continuous
33/1 Delius
50/1 Fantastic Moon
50/1 Mqse De Seigne
66/1 Sunway
125/1 Zaracem
200/1 Haya Zark
500/1 Sevenna’s Knight
500/1 SurvieI’ve backed:
Los Angeles, Bluestocking and Aventure, with savers on Al Riffa and Continuous.Value Is EverythingNot the greatest renewal , good to see money for Los Angeles who I covered early in week , I’ve added Sosie , if there is a star in the race then this it
16 runners and many would be suited by a good pace, but I can’t really see a proper front runner in the field.
Maybe a second string will go on?
Value Is EverythingCost too much to declare him a non runner apparently.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
I’ve been with Delius all season and hoping for a tactically better ride today
That said, I could back about seven of these today and be most interested in Los Angeles, who might outstay Sosie when the pace picks up
Continuous now a “main bet” and gone in again for Los Angeles.
Value Is EverythingI’ve added Zarakem ew, stamina should help considering the ease in the ground.
Mqse de Sevigne 33-1 3pl
Zarakem 80-1 4pl
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