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Al Riffa @ 100/1
Some way off and looks like the market has not got a clue at the minute. Just had a couple of niggles at the wrong time but got closer to Ace Impact than any other horse last year.
Seems to need a run to get going and appeared just to get a little bit tired last Sunday. I bet connections were quite chuffed with it in the grand scheme of things.
Young Joseph has always talked about stepping him up in trip and is working back from the Arc this year. It’s almost impossible to say where he goes next given that, but you would imagine he has 3 or 4 bites at the cherry to come and would not be the biggest shock in the world to see him win one. It’s all about if he improves for another two furlongs or not, if he does he has got to be a player
If you back anything now you are taking a chance but i can’t for the love of me seeing that price lasting much longer given how things look at the moment.I can’t get another penny on now, but starting to think 66’s is quite generous the more i think about it.
Feed the flame @ 66’s
Could well make into a better 4 year old and probably would of won last Sundays race if not for running wide all the way round. Probably a 12 furlong horse and no surprise if he popped up in a big race either.
Feed the Flame for me too
I was slightly disappointed the other day but all things considered it was a good enough run.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Deirus 75/1 boosted price Ladbrokes
I think Rouget can do something similar to last year this horse won well on debut. Has a way to go but won’t shock me if he does.
After today backed Delius and Aventure.
I think you could mark both up, and I don’t think there is as big a disparity between them and those towards the head of the market. Delius looks to me as if he is continually learning on the job, and Aventure almost certainly wants a trip and preferably soft ground. At least one of those is a given in October.
Delius was given a shocker, and I think he’ll be much closer come arc day. Too many of the British trainers don’t plan their season with the arc as the target. Look at aidans horses. Cot probably breeders Cup. A rodin ,Japan cup the target. Luxembourg probably breeders Cup turf. Continuous possibly arc, but no plan around it. Until the british and irish trainers build their season up to the arc, they will struggle to beat French horses whose whole season builds up to the arc. IMHO, of course.
“Too many of the British trainers don’t plan their season with the arc as the target.
Until the british and irish trainers build their season up to the arc, they will struggle to beat French horses whose whole season builds up to the arc. IMHO, of course.”.
—————————–But British trainers do target the Arc… And many win.
Of the last 10 Arcs:
France has won 4
Britain has won 4
Ireland has won 1
Germany has won 1Britain has never won more Arcs in a 10 year period than the last 10 years; it’s a pretty good record I’d say.
…British 12f horses are trained with the Arc as their main aim / “plan”. It’s just we haven’t really got a player yet in 2024. It should not be the one and only plan of the whole season… And nor does it have to be. Full campaigns didn’t stop Golden Horn, Found (for Ireland), Enable (twice) or Alpinista.
What is the difference between a horse being “aimed” or “built up” and one not being aimed / built up anyway? Does the horse need to miss the Summer season completely? Does it (bizarrely imo) need to run in those good races but lose?
3 of the 4 French horses that won the Arc in the last 10 years also had full European campaigns.
Sottsass had run four times in the season prior to winning the Arc. Including winning the Ganay and being 4th in the Irish Champion Stakes.
Waldgeist also ran four times and won the Ganay, before running in both the Prince Of Wales and King George.
Treve before her 2014 Arc triumph was also beaten in the King George.Enable won the King George, Found runner-up in the Prince Of Wales and Irish Champion, Golden Horn won the Irish Champion. Running in similar races to the French Arc winners. Not surprisingly, most Arc winners had run in some of the best races in Europe.
So running in the Prince Of Wales, King George or Irish Champion, clearly does not stop a horse from winning the Arc if good enough.Found, Enable and Alpinista all ran in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Of the last 10 Arc winners only Ace Impact ran in the Prix du Jockey Club the year he won the Arc. imo Only Ace Impact can be said to have been “aimed at” or “built up” for the Arc and only the Arc from a long way out. Getting the traditional French three year old campaign of not running between the French Derby in early June and an easy Arc trial – in his case mid August – before the Arc… And yet he is the only French 3 year old to win the Arc in those 10 years. A light campaign doesn’t necessarily bring success. Before Ace Impact, I believe you’ve got to go back another 20 years to find the last Prix Du Jockey Club winner to go on to Arc success in the same year, Dalakhani.
This year’s PDJC winner Look De Vega has a fairly good chance of winning the Arc. But needs to improve a good bit further to win an average Arc. Far too short in the betting for what he’s done. I suspect there will be other good horses running too.
Of the Irish: Fact is Auguste Rodin has disappointed on a soft surface… And the Arc is often run on a soft surface. Therefore – even if he’s currently some way above Look De Vega on form – to “aim” him at the Arc would be stupid. That’s not to say he wouldn’t be favourite if it were proper good-firm come October. Breeders Cup and Japan Cup are invariably run on a firmish surface. Similarly, although City Of Troy acts on good-soft, his action is a flowing one, probably favoured by a sounder surface than he’s likely to get at Longchamp… And may not stay a truly run race at 12f on soft or heavy ground either. American racing might suit him better. If there is plenty of give then Los Angeles, Continuous and Kyprios come into it. Opera Singer should step up her form once allowed to tackle middle-distances. Today’s winner Diego Velasquez looks another potential Coolmore Arc horse. Is White Birch equally effective at 12f? Maybe the Champion Stakes would be an easier option and that’s if connections can get him back to his early season form.
British Arc horses look a bit thin on the ground at the moment. Emily Upjohn if coming back to her best, but probably doesn’t want it too soft. Kings Gambit is one with potential. Giavellotto too, although he’s thought to need a sound surface ran very well on good-soft at Newmarket. They seem to be treading on eggshells with Economics. Not run since the Dante and will probably be too inexperienced for this year’s Arc. Passenger is definitely top class, but has had a physical problem, got to prove he’s effective at 12f and may not like a soft surface either. Matsuri was promising in the Irish Derby. I don’t see Bluestocking in the betting?
The Japanese seem to be a bigger and bigger force on the World stage. They may well have a say this year too.
Value Is EverythingThe point I was making was Britain and Ireland have a huge pool of horses and should be winning arcs but at the start of the season very few have the arc as a target. The French,with fewer horses and fewer as highly rated obviously target the race and have a very good record. Isn’t the arc the highest rated race around which makes some trainers attitude strange.
Point is Mickey,
A lot of the top Irish and (from what we have) British horses this season are thought to prefer a sound surface. It would be stupid to “target” a race that (more often than not) has soft ground with such horses.That’s why the Arc is not specifically “targeted” this far away from the race. However, if this year’s ground were to be proper good-firm then those not originally targeted may well run. eg Rodin.
It is particularly difficult for trainers to judge the state of Longchamp’s official going, which is often nothing like what is claimed. Some trainers may be put off by the official going.
What British and Irish horses do you believe should be aimed at the Arc that aren’t?
Value Is EverythingA lot of times for the English/Irish 3 yr olds the Arc will always be an after thought and often comes at the end of a long season (especially if they have started their season in April/May by racing at the Guineas/Dante meetings).
That is why you have to mark up Golden Horn (2015 winner) who did the Fielden (April), Dante (May), Derby (June), Eclipse (July), Juddmonte (August), Irish Champion (Sept) before a 7th run of the season in the Arc (Oct) and then went on to the Breeders Cup (Oct) for his 8th run of the season – he only missed the King George that year.
Also Enable in her 3yr old season (2017) ran 7 times: Conditions Race (Apr), Cheshire Oaks (May), Oaks (June), Irish Oaks (July), King George (July), Yorkshire Oaks (Aug) then had a mini break before the Arc (Oct). As an older horse (2018-2020) she was geared specifically for the Arc when starting her season in July (the Arc being her 4th run) with her 2nd Arc coming off the back off an injury delayed first run in September.
Found (2016) was a complete anomaly in the year she won her Arc, which was her 8th run of an incredible 10 run season which saw her only miss running in the month of July in a season that started on 3 April and ended on 5 November and of her 10 runs, 8 of them were G1 races!
2023 winner Ace Impact ran in April, May and June before an August prep run before the Arc.
2022 winner Alpinista won her Arc off the back of just two prep runs in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud (July) and Yorkshie Oaks (Aug).
2021 winner Torquato Tasso ran in June, July, August and September before his Arc
2020 winner Sottsass ran May, June, August and September before his Arc
2019 winner Waldgeist ran in April, June, July, September before his Arc
2013/14 winner Treve in her 1st Arc ran in May and June before a break and the took in an Arc Trial in September and her 2nd win was off the back of a run in April and June before and Arc Trial in September.
2012 winner Solemia ran in April, twice in May before a break and then ran in August before taking in an Arc trial.It probably very much depends on what type of horse you have as to how you do (or maybe don’t) plan for a specific Arc campaign – with the right horse, all options are possible but the French are much more likely to go the less runs with a break and then take in an Arc trial as a prep.
No horse in particular but going back to Dylan Thomas aidan specifically had his plan mapped out. I know the lads chop and change but had continous gone to the prix noel instead of a sapping leger I reckon he would have gone close. Alpinista was targeted for the arc. I just find it odd that trainers don’t see the arc as adding much value to a stallion when it’s the top rated race iirc.
Look De Vega my sole pick in this with White Birch having had his problems. Looking forward to seeing him again in his trial race.
I really like the look of Shin Emperor in this.
Full brother to Arc Winner Sottsass.
Ran a great trial in the Irish Champion, doing his best work at the end after traffic problems.
Stays 12f really well as shown in the Japanese Derby.Could be the one to finally do it for the Japanese (even though its French bred).
Just too laze to jump on the Japanese bandwagon, but the Wertheimer owned Aventure looks okay to me at 14s WIN.
A positive update from the trainer on Mqse de Sevigne. I backed her at 33s before the Prix Jean Romanet and was a bit
when she actually drifted to 40s with one firm for a bit after that narrow victory, so am happy to read this. Her dam -who shares a damsire with Jukebox Jury- was a neck second in a listed race over 12f and her half siblings were best over a trip too. She’s got a Prix Vermeille winner in the pedigree too so hope the trip will be no bother.
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