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Would the track be a bit of a disadvantage for Adayar.??
I know he handled Epsom but that is a long enough straight for him to hit his strideCharles Darwin to conquer the World
He,s not slow , look at how he put the Derby to bed in a few strides , I think he,s really underated
I wouldn’t under rate him he is a massive danger but just thinking this track perhaps will not see him at his best
I know he is not slow but he is such a size on him his stride is also a big weaponCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Don’t understand the Adayar thinking about the track at Longchamp being a disadvantage – if there was one track that you could have raised doubts over not suiting him it might have been Ascot’s and we all know how well he coped with that.
Longchamp’s home straight feeds right off of the false straight with a somewhat sweeping turn so I can’t see how that will be anything but a plus for a big long striding horse like Adayar.I think the ‘no chance’ comments are a minority and the horse is not underrated by most.
It would be wrong to underestimate Adayar, I believe Timeform have rated him at 133 which is enough to win most Arcs, I don’t think he is ground dependent and the track won’t be a problem, I guess the question is how good are Snowfall with her weight concession and the horse I’ve backed Tarnawa who probably would have won it last year if allowed to take her chance.
I wouldn’t say adayar has no chance but I think the bookies have it about right. The arc is still 6 weeks away and anything can happen. Snowfall deserves to be favourite with the allowances and her acceleration. She has hit the front too early in her oaks races because the field wasn’t going fast enough for her. If the arc is ran at a decent pace she will kick later and provided she gets a clear run must have a very good chance.Adayar outatayed mishriff and he won’t be able to out stay the likes of tarnawa imho.
Inasmuch as I don’t bet ante-post nowadays and won’t be having a bet on the race until the final declarations I shouldn’t really be commenting on any of these threads!
But FWIW my view is this.
Adayar is the strongest Arc contender in paper at this time.
He won The Derby decisively and followed up in the King George at Ascot (which is actually a sharper 1m4f overall than Epsom if, as I have done, you have walked both courses and looked at the course records and standard times).
The Ascot runner up won the International Stakes subsequently, Adayar is a big progressive beast of a colt and any horse that can act round Epsom and Ascot will have zero problem at Longchamp.
He is the best Derby winner since Golden Horn and what beats him wins it.
Snowfall and stablemate Hurricane Lane remain unexposed and would rate the main threats if they showed up.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Ah yes.
For some reason I had Chantilly in my headCharles Darwin to conquer the World
It is early doors for this race but the one chink with Snowfall is she’s yet to take on the colts and she doesn’t get all that much weight from the 3yo boys in the autumn.
Update from RP…
Derby and King George winner Adayar will miss Sunday’s Prix Niel after picking up an infection in a hind leg and will instead head straight to the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on October 3.
Trainer Charlie Appleby said: “Adayar missed a couple of days, and after discussions, we felt there was no need to press on to a trial (for the Arc). So, the decision was made to head straight to the Arc.
He has resumed full training, and as a Derby and King George winner, he fully deserves to be running in what is shaping up to be a vintage Arc.”Right decision to miss the prep race but it is less than ideal to have that big of a break between runs going into the biggest assignment of his career. Hopefully this injury isn’t going to be used as an excuse if he gets beat.
It definitely will be used as an excuse
I was contemplating adding him to tarnawa as a bet as he has miles better form than snowfall but is double the price
But that is enough to put me off
There will be some interesting angles and opportunities on this race I think. Snowfall is a very vulnerable favourite in my eyes.
BUY THE SUN
Starting to look like a race I might have a bet in.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"If you’re going to have a bet now probably isn’t a bad time with the news about adayar and with both snowfall and tarnawa set to run this weekend
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