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Snowfall recorded a quicker time than previous winners Love, Enable, Sea Of Class, Seventh Heaven and The Fugue (all on good ground or quicker). And it was hands and heels to the finish line.
There are still some doubts for me as Wonderful Tonight clearly needs give to be anywhere near her best (if it came up real Arc soft she is still a big player) and Snowfall reminds me a lot of Love last season who was also beating up on an average 3 yr old bunch of fillies and didn’t get the expect competition in last year’s Yorkshire Oaks renewal.
As they say it pays to follow a filly in form during the Autumn but I do think Adayar just based on his size/scope is still open to much more improvement than the filly as he has taken giant strides forward since his first two runs this season – I was rather underwhelmed by his Lingfield run as I thought he would love the soft ground (considering that he bolted up on it on his final 2yr old run at Nottingham) but I guess he may have been still filling into that frame at that stage – it will be interesting to see what ground he encounters in the Prix Neil as by that time he would have strengthened up even more. Fingers crossed he stays in training next year as he will be a right beast with another year on his back.
I do have a sneaky feeling that Hurricane Lane will not run in the Arc as I wouldn’t be surprised if he got turned over in the Leger and even if he did win, it can be a brutal race regardless and with only a 3 week turn around until the Arc it might be too much of an ask to do both.
Interesting point about the time Mike except for the fact the first 4 home today all ran to at least 2.28.05 and therefore they also beat the winning times of the excellent fillies and mares you mentioned. The ground is very fast and the pace presumably was plenty honest enough to produce a good time. If its stays that quick tomorrow or gets quicker, with the likely pace scenario I can see the Nunthorpe record going.
It’s bleeding obvious to me anyway that snowfall prefers a little cut in the ground and doesn’t stride out as well on a faster surface so to run a time like that was astonishing. If she gets October soft in the arc and she retains her form she must have a great chance in the arc. Aiden and the team where clearly delighted and Aiden was as happy as I’ve seen him. Great run by albaflora which I’m cheesing with as I’ve got snowfall and her in my tote top ten to follow. Pity about smbasilica yesterday but swings and roundabouts. I Hope snowfall stays in training as I can see her getting even better as a 4 year old.
Hit the nail on the head there mickeyp. Connections say Wonderful Night is 10 lbs better on soft. Snowfall is about half a stone better still at least on that surface as well. Adayar on the other hand has his high rating on good to firm. Arc ground will be key.
Snowfalls acceleration yesterday was still a sight to behold but in the oaks was breath taking. On good to soft she is as much a good thing as enable was. Don’t think she appreciates firmish ground and an arc trial on good french ground should set her up perfectly. She seems to be getting stronger and faster if anything. She reminds me of the french filly all along who was a very muscular powerful filly. You could see the joy in Ryan moores face knowing how good she is.
Shes beaten nothing
Horse she beat in the musidora is rated 101
2nd in the oaks 100
Irish oaks 106
Yorkshire oaks 108Gonna be a very very different test in the arc
Fair play anyone on at nice prices but 2/1-5/2 is not good
Tarnawa and adayar have much more depth to their form.
Tarnawa wont win the Arc imo unless the ground is G/S or better. The same may apply to Adayar. Snowfall won the Oaks by 16 lengths in conditions that may well be similar on Arc day. Numbers are all well and good but a horse needs his or her conditions as well.
Tarnawa has won on heavy so no concern from me ground wise
And that was over a trip short of her best
Shes got a turn of foot so will be better suited by decent ground but clearly handles anything
She handles it but can she win a championship race in it? That turn of foot she has will be blunted on testing ground imo.
Adayar won by 9L on soft ground as a 2 yr old so I don’t think he is ground dependant, although by his size and galloping action you would have thought that good to firm ground would have been more of an issue – Wonderful Tonight seems to be the only one that is ground dependant, so conditions on the day will dictate what chance of winning she has, the law of averages say she will get some give in the ground come October though.
Snowfall is all style over substance at the moment (which is reflected in her Arc price) as her Oaks winning distance was greatly exagerated by the fact that on the whole the 3yr old fillies aren’t a great bunch and pretty much nothing else handled the soft ground and those that lined up against her in the Irish Oaks were at best G3 standard (and that is pushing it).
The Yorkshire Oaks would have been a better test of her full ability against a better G1 opponent but conditions went against that rival so we didn’t learn much more – yes I know she can only beat what is put in front of her but the Arc (which can be a pretty rough race) will be a whole different kettle of fish for her to deal with.
That being said looking forward to them all showing up (fingers crossed) so we can finally have all these questions definitively answered.
Point was that he has won on soft ground and as such I wouldn’t use that as an excuse if he gets beat on it in the Arc, if he hadn’t have won on it previously then it would be a major cause of concern going into the race as to whether he would handle it or not.
FF, isnt wonderful tonight rated 117 or am i missing something? Or are you only including those defeated into 2nd place?
SMB is the best 3yo colt about, by a considerable margin IMO
Adayar no chance
Snowfall or tarnawa will win this but SMB if he makes it wont be far away, adayar mid field at best
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