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hi does anyone agree the price of 6-1 henry the navigator for next years guineas is a joke .all the best two year olds have still to appear there is no guarantee he will even be the best ballydoyle beast. anyway when did the last coventry winner win the guineas.opinions welcomed
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Welcome to the Racing Forum, Victor.
You make a very good point and it is hard to believe that many will be tempted by that price at this time.
Colin
Welcome, Victor.
I entirely agree. It’s worth recalling that George Washington was quoted at 6/1 for the 2006 Guineas in August 2005 after he’d won a Group One by eight lengths. I’m not arguing that that was a fantastic price, although you’d say so now with the wisdom of hindsight, but there were eleven horses within eight lengths of Henrythenavigator in last week’s Group Two.
O’Brien has a habit of running his best horses early. The likes of George Washington, Holy Roman Emperor, Rock of Gibraltar, Landseer, Hawk Wing, Johnannesburg are just a few that were out pre-Roal Ascot.
obviously you are going to have an appalling strike rate backing guineas horses at this time of year, but if the price is right it makes sense. i backed yoursothrilling at 25s for the 1000 with the view she would get much shorter. she may not turn out to be as good as i thought but by arbing it you get a free bet at good odds she will. ive noticed a fair bit of resentment by some for this sort of practice but to me it seems the only way to make ante-post betting worthwhile.
6/1 about henrythenavigator is a ridiculous price that he’ll win the guineas, but seems pretty good if you backed him at 16+ a month or so ago!
just my 2 cents.
Ben,
I don’t think its resentment, just that people were talking about it as though nobody understood the concept and they were informing a bunch of novices.
Pride i’d call it!!! The method your suggesting is a decent one for playing the ante-post markets provided your a decent judge or have insider knowledge ;) But then…… :biggrin:
Have to agree with DJ, I would safely say there will be plenty of improvement in Henry, as Dj said the fact that he won the Coventry, suggests he is one of O Briens best if not the best. Don’t usually back antepost, but if he cleans up a bunch of the top 2yr old races, 6/1 could look mighty pretty during the winter.
Interesting point that is worth some more fundamental reflection. Is flat racing coming down to an evaluation of what might win the Guineas, and little else? 2-y-os are judged on their ability to win the Guineas or the Derby/Oaks on the assumption that they will be retired soon thereafter. And anything else will be an "also ran". Unless, of course you have something that becomes very progressive, like Sergeant Cecil or Red Evie in which case they are presented as "freaks" that keep the game interesting but are really sideshows to the main game- breeding.<br>LL
i take your point about the horse winning group 1s later, and am not knocking the horse he may indeed be a champion, but surely it cant possibly be any value at 6-1 with 10 months to the race.remember teofillio and he won group1,s.you can get 6-1 sublimity for the champion hurdle i know which ante-post price i prefer.
Longchamp it is a very good point you make. when you look at it 3 of the first 5 home in the derby were by coolmore stallions and a fourth (Aqaleem) is out of a mare by sadlers wells. I guess it comes down to money makes the racing world go round and breeding precocious juveniles that are successful at 2 and early at 3 sells better than horses bred to win group 1s when they are 4 or 5 because people want quick results. but then every once in a while a champion comes along who is not immediately dragged off to stud and that horse grabs the publics imagination, like ouija board. shame there arent more like her with similar, racing loving connections!!
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