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Little difficult to get on this site last night so left this until today.
I met the person who is actually doing this yesterday and told him that although it has never been in a loss situation although it has been just 20 days.
I told him about this horse racing web site where everyone is in agreement that it is not possible to win overall he still assures me he has made £9,100 in the past 2 years. He said he has listed all the results.
When I told him the dangers of just doubling up as in a casino he said it is based around the fact that overall just under 30% of sole favourites win horse races overall. In novice hurdles he said it was just under 50%.
In the 20 days I have been paper trading this on 18 days the sole favourite won either the first or second race. On the other two days it took over 6 races until a sole fav won.
If this trend kept on repeating itself that would be the adjustment to make as the max stake would be just £10.00.
So far by stopping if the first 2 favs had lost the overall profit would now be £209.37.The point to make here is that races are an infinite series of events and the probabilities associated with such events are not influenced by dividing them up into days or groups of six or seven.
You could point out to him that there have been several occasions during the 20 day period when he would have gone bust by starting at a different point with his sequence of bets. Any eight consecutive losing outright favourites in a row will just about do this.
If he has won £9,100 using this method, he has been unbelievably lucky. All things are possible – people win jackpots purely by chance – but I wouldn’t recommend anyone else doing it.
I agree about the inevitable unfortunate conclusion to this.
But, thinking about the TV programme ‘Who wants to be a millionaire?", where the risk/reward ratio can lead to changed attitudes, how many people would actually risk a £2.5k bank to win a fiver?
Not me!
Sunday 20th Jan
there was 1 race where again bf market could not decide and eventually had jfs (one of which won)
.It was not until 5th race that a sole fav won sp was 2/1 (easily got 3.125 bf 85/40.
profit (less comm) +95.00
profit b/f +88.27
prof to c/f +183.27mon 21st
Daves Dream won 1st race of day was out so its just s.p
5/6
4.15 profit on day
total to c/f £187.42Tues 22
Hits Only Jude won the first race @4/1 was out so s.p. as dont know what it was b/fair
profit on day £20.00bank to c/f +207.42.
I have a little time before the Aus tennis resumes on Euro sport so will start at least to post some of the facts and figures I was given by the person who still swears blind that this works.
They are not my stats and I dont know if they are correct but I am assured they are.
I am still of the opinion that this will not work in the end.OVERALL PERFORMANCE
‘Over the last 5 years from recording the results of each race in Britain in terms of the performance of favourites favourites have won 34% of all types of race. This is the first and most basic finding. At the present time this has increased slightly and is running at 36% through the middle of 2007.
So much that bookmakers have recently been complaining that too many winning favourites have been affecting profits.
No doubt though tthat the avereage will reduce itself in the coming months.
It is often said that some courses are no good for favourites. (York is one that springs to mind) but over the past 4 years there is no evidence of this. The stats from The Racing Post do not support this either.We (I do not know who wrote this stuff) are not claiming that favourites will win 34% of the time every day, far from it as you will see. We are sayingthat if you took a run of say, ten days the individual figures will swing about but at the end of the ten day period it will be in the region of 34-36%
They then show a 10 day chart taken from random.
date no of races favs won fav percentage running average
28/9 2000 15 6 40 40%
29 14 5 35 37%
30 41 14 34 33%
01/10 20 8 40 37%
02 13 2 15 33%
03 21 8 38 34%
04 20 9 45 35%
05 19 7 35 35%
06 28 7 25 34%
totals 26 12 46 33%DAY TO DAY PERFORMANCE
The chart above leads us into another area- the day to day preformance
of favourites. The average is 34% overall but the daily performance figure will dance around that trend.
They then show various charts which I cannot display here.PERFORMANCE BY SIZE OF CARD
Most meetings have 6 or 7 races on the card. Because favourites are winning 34% of the time this implies that on any given card the favourites should win at least 2 races on average.
If they win less at a certain meeting then you can be sure they will win more at another or over the next few days to make up for that.races on card
RACES 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
6 6% 16% 30% 26% 16 5% 1%
7 7 17 31 21 16 7 2
8 5 11 30 27 11 14 3the table above shows that a six, seven and 8 race card shows the favourites will win 2 races. The second likelest outcome is they will win 3!
They then show some graphs which I cant place on here.
They then show a table
.
WINNING FAVOURITES AT MEETING WITH 6 RACES.
1 RACE 94%
2 RACES 77%
3 RACES 48%
4 RACES 22%
5 RACES 5%
6 RACES 1%On a 6 race card there is a 94% probablity that a favourite will win at least 1 race. Almost as impressive is the probabilty that the favourites will win 2 races 77% of the time.
SO THE SIMPLEST OF ALL STRATERGIES IS TO PICK A 6 RACE CARD AT RANDOM AND BET ON THE FAVOURITE UNTIL ONE HAS WON AND YOU WILL BE RIGHT 94% OF THE TIME. OF COURSE YOU MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE 6TH AND LAST RACE.
IN REALITY IT WOULD RARELY GO THAT FAR AS A FAVOURITE WINS ONE OF THE FIRST 3 RACES 83% OF THE TIME AND A FAVOURITE WINS ONE OF THE FIRST 4 RACES 91% OF THE TIME.
BOTH THESE FIGURES GIVE AMPLE SCOPE FOR HUM DRUMMING TICKING OVER KIND OF STRATERGIES.
Profitablity could be enhanced by devising corrections for losing days and careful manipulation of stakes.more later!
2 RACES
Thanks for posting that Seagull. It gives us some insight into the thinking behind such approaches to betting. This sort of thing will appear plausible to 80% of the betting public.
Rather than looking at the 94% success rate for finding at least one winning favourite in 6, I would be contemplating the 6% chance of NOT finding a winner and the consequences of that for my bank.
Here are the stats for UK Flat only since 9 Nov 2002. The counts are for the number of consecutive (in advertised race time order) losers before a winning favourite, on a daily basis, joint favourite races are ignored.
0, 535
1, 382 (meaning 382 days in which the Fav won the second race)
2, 249
3, 148
4, 111
5, 74
6, 53
7, 31
8, 27
9, 6
10, 10
11, 5
12, 6
13, 4
14, 2
15, 2
16, 1 (no winning favourites on Saturday 20 Nov 2004!)Have a look here for lots of stats on favourites
http://www.adrianmassey.com/fav/fav0.php
This is from a huge sample of data covering 16 years. Strike rates does not vary much from around the 35% mark. If you were to stick to novice hurdles the SR is around 45%.
Proof positive, Jim.
The actual statistics fit the statistical model.
As I mentioned in a previous post;
8 consecutive losers at average odds of 2/1 = loss of bank(£2,500) = 4% probability resulting in losing the bank, on average every 25 days.
The actual stats say 27 lost banks in 5 years and 2 months or one every 64 days on average. This is longer than I predicted at average odds of 2/1, but I’m fairly sure the average odds for all clear favourites is below this price of 2/1, which I used as an example.
Worth stopping yesterday as Tsongo was brilliant in beating Nadal stright sets! Some one not sleeping to well as he was laid £164 for 1,000 betfair
anyway here is the rest from this pamplet.
FAVOURITES BY NUMBER OF RUNNERS
Another chart which I cant place on here.The chart above shows the performance of favs in races with between 3-9 runners. These are races of all types. They do not include races where a horse has been withdrawn and the numbers fall into these figures.
They show in 3 runner races 59% of favs win and this % falls steadily until we find that in 9 runner races the fav wins 33% of the time.
The avaerage winning % of favs overall in runners in feilds of between 3-9 runners is 43%.
The overall average for races over 10 runners is a mere 23% so it may well be sense to restrict bets to races that are up to 9 runners.
As we have said earlier favs win 34% of races overall, limiting our interest to feilds of between 3-9runners significantly increases this proportion to 43%. Because of the higher certainty of winning he return on the odds falls and favourites normally go off between odds on and up to around 7/2.
(loads of other stats leftout by me)ODDS ON FAVS
We ramdomly chose a 6 month period in 1997 but the results hold good today. Out fo 294 odds on favs 184 won which is a 63% success rate but a 37% failure rate. So even nailed on ones often fail to win.
It maens odds on favs have to have a s/rate of 2to1 (2 out of 3 win)
The problem of course is precisely that they odds on …..your winnings are smaller than your stake by definition and it is difficult to see how losing stakes could be recovered in a step to step method of staking.
Perhaps itis just best to wait until one odds on fav has lost because you know the next two have a good chance of winning. (because 2 out of 3 win).PERFORMANCE BY TYPE OF RACE
As one might expect the performance varies by the number of runners and also the type of race.TYPE OF RACE S/ RATE9 OR LESS 9OR MORE ALL RACES
HURDLE 56% 43 49%
CHASE 56% 26 45%
FLAT NON HAND 44 39 42
SELL NON HAND 44 28 37
HAND CHASE 39 26 33
FLAT HAND 35 23 28
HAND HURD 31 23 28
HUNTCHASE 27 46 37
SELL HURD – 57 50
NH FLAT – 39 42
SELL HAND HURD – 36 35AV NON HAND 45 39 42
AV HAND 35 27 31the perios chosen was again by random but the tends have not markedly changed sincethe period under review. Favs are the most prolific winners in chases or hurdle arces with 9 or less runners. They perform worst in handicaps with 10 plus runners. Not a suprise that these are the arces bookmakers tend to promote and sponsor.
PERFORMANCE OF FAVS AW TRACKS
Again the results are taken from a random period of time.
Dec 1999 until Oct 2000 for southwell and wolv and from dec 1999 until march 2000 for lingfield.LING RACES WON BY FAV FAV %
167 64 38
SOUTH 298 97 33WOLV 297 107 36
TOTAL 762 268 35
JOINT FAVS AND CO FAVS
There is pages about these but no likely prospect of returns backing both jf or all co favs so skippedCONCLUSION
If you are a follower of favoutism or just an ordinary punter you should calculate the %s for winning favs every day -just be aware by the type of race and the number of runners that some days are bound tobe harder than others.
In general we hope we have convinced you that with a strike rate of 34% (compared to 6% for the average of non favs winning, The favourite is the most important horse in any race. Betting statergies based on favourites are bound to produce results.My words
Thats what he based it on and it does give some food for thought that perhaps by limiting bets to up to 9 runners and in non handicaps that an overall profit can be acheived???????????24 feb
1st fav lost but 2nd Prideus won 5/4profit on day £7.50
profit to c.f +229.92
To give this a better chance I am going to limit it to non handicap races with 9 or less runners.
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