An old boy I know swears this one makes money.

[Artemis]

Shame on Ladbrokes, I say.

If they are not prepared to accommodate this type of bet i.e. singles on UNNAMED Favs, they should really not be calling themselves bookmakers.

A disgrace is the only word to describe it. If someone was betting up to a bank of 500K, they should still, as a plc, take the bets with a smile. They really ought to know that they cannot lose.

[Seagull]

Yes I agree the manageress said she had been monitoring his bets and he was classed as a ‘constant winner’.

Monday 24 March
ANY FAV
Sun King won the2nd race of the day @9/4

profit on day £17.50

bank to c/f £3,782.92

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Superior Star won the 3rd race that fitted the filters @13/8

profit on day £35.00

bank to c/f £517.20

[Seagull]

Tues 25 March

ANY FAV
Bouguereau won the 1st race of the day @4/9

profit on day £2.22

Bank to c/f £3,785.14

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
same horse as above
profit on day £4.44

Bankto c/f £521.64

[Seagull]

wed 26 March

ANY FAV
Cerebus won the 2nd race of the day @2/1
profit on day £15.00

bank to c/f £3,800.14

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

There were 4 races that fitted the filters
all lost though.
loss on day -£150.00

bank to c/f £371.64

[Seagull]

Thurs 27 March

ANY FAV
Bridge Of Fermoy won the 3rd race of the day @15/8

profit on day £22.50

Bank to c/f £3,822.64

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Bridge Of Fermoy won the 1st arce that fitted the filter @15/8

profit on day £18.75

Bank to c/f £390.39

[Nathan Hughes]

Seagull

On 26th march ANY FAV NON HAND recorded a loss of £150, could the system continue on the 27th with £160 first bet ?

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[Seagull]

Nathan
Yes of course it could have done (the next bet would have been Bridge of Fermoy a winner @15/8) but I am operating it the same way as Mark does. He starts every day with a clean sheet as it were (i.e £5.00) In my case I am starting with a £10.00.

rgds

[Seagull]

Fri 28th March
ANY FAV
Little Richard won the 6th race @5/2
profit on day £245.00

Bank to c/f £4,067.64

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Dhhamaan won the 3rd race @11/10
profit on day £14.00

Bank to c/f £404.39

[Seagull]

Sat 29th March

ANY FAV
Doubly Guest won the 5th race of the day but @4/9
made a loss on the day of £39.48

bank to c/f £4,028.16

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Doubly Guest won the 1st race that fitted the above filters
profit on day £4.44

bank to c/f £408.83

[Seagull]

With a quarter of the year just about up it has made an average of £47.77 profit per day for the last 88 days.

I started on the best day to start January 1st.Although I did know about it last year.

The current profits allow 9 bets before any money would be needed from the original bank.There would stil be some profit to use so not all the bank would have been used.

The average run of races so far before a sole favourite has won has been 1.86.

There have been several occasions where an odds on winner has ended a losing run and this has ensured a loss on the day.

Yesterday was a good example with a 4/9 shot winning the 5th race but if that had gone on until the 8th race there would have been a massive profit as Boystrada was a 100/30 winning favourite.So £640 on would have made £2,112.00 and left a profit of £1,549. on the day instead of a loss of £39.48

If Artemis is correct in his assumption it could go for 2 years and 8 months on the current margins that is over £40,000 in forecasted profits.

What has suprised me is that the 2 filters I introduced do not work that well but they will I think end up in profit and there so far have not been that many races per day that would have caused me that much worry that I would lose my £2,500 bank in one day.

Mark uses a bank of £2,500 as already stated so he has a stop filter in place. So currently he would stop after 10 losers in a row as he does not have enough in the bank and winnings to continue.

I am suprised it has made this much to be honest but it could so easily have made much more it all depends on not having odds on chances around the 5th or 6th race. Much better to have them early on.

I have altered my view and now think overall using the two filters I have employed will now make me an overall profit.
As to Mark winning with his any clear favourite I remain open minded
P.S.
One furlongout are you actually doing these yourself?

[Wallace]

This really must be the ultimate "Contrarian Selection Method". It performs best following a series of failures. In reality it is just high stakes gambling.

[Artemis]

This system is still going because the average price of favourites in the early part of the year has been lower than I anticipated. I thought it would be around 7/4, but it has been lower. Obviously, the shorter the price of the favourite, the less likelihood of a long and fatal losing run.

No-one can say for sure when the losing run that breaks the bank will occur, only that it will occur on average X days depending on the average price Y.

You can easily set up a model of this system using dice or playing cards or a roulette wheel. There is really no difference between the probability laws that apply to these and those that apply to horses. The model will show that such systems as these are only profitable to those who have an edge – namely, the casino or the bookmaker. You will not find any mathematician who would challenge the validity of this theory and its application to the system on this thread.

It’s very interesting, Seagull, and sporting of you to keep us all informed of the system’s progress.

[Seagull]

I will keep posting up the results as Im doing part of this anyway and I always keep full set of results with all bets I ever have.

Sunday 30 March

ANY FAV
Leading Attraction won the 5th race but @4/6 ensured a loss of £21.64
on the day. (Next race was won by a 3/1 fav which would have been a lot better)!

Bank reduced to £4,006.52

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS
Leading Attraction won the 2nd race
profit on day £3.34

bank to c/f £412.17

[Seagull]

Mon 31 March

ANY FAV

Samuel Charles won the 2nd race @11/10

profit on day £6.00

bank £4,012.52

ANY FAV NON HAND TO 9 RUNNERS

Samuel Charles won the 1st Race @11/10

profit on day £11.00

bank to c/f £423.17

[Seagull]

The total staked in the 81 days has been £6,522.00.
Thats just an average of £80.51 pence a day.

The highest stake has been £1,280 on two occasions.

There has been a 69% strike rate so far of the stake not exceeding £10.00.

28 times (from 81 occasions) the fav has won the 1st race of the day.£5 stake
28 times (from 81 occasions) the fav has won the 2nd race.£10.00 stake.

[Artemis]

Seagull,

I’ll skip the maths, but I’ve calculated that there is a 99.7% chance of the system failing in 137 days.

I had it all ready to post when I pressed the wrong key and It all vanished.
But that was the bottom line, so to speak.

[Matron]

This is interesting Artemis.

If you stopped the system on the 136th day and then carried on the 138th day could, you carry on for another 136 days in theory.

And no, I am not trying to be funny – just interested to hear from somebody that is astute in "maths".

Regards- Matron

[Author]

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