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Max
I also like the look of Commander Wish in the first so that’s put the mockers on that ! Both Miss Firefly & Towy Boy are closely matched and could give the Commander most to do.
Albero Di Guida looks the one to beat in the second but I’m going to risk a little EW on Well Of Echoes who ran OK over C&D in a seller a couple of runs back.
Of the rest I’m rowing in with Rich on Kersivay in the 4.50 who as Rich says if reproducing its second to Gassin shouldn’t be far away. Just Timmy Marcus might place if on a going day
Good luck all
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Captain Bluebird (3.50) and Kersivay (4.50) were the two I settled on for today. I missed the 9/1 and 10/1 about the former, but I’m still happy to back him at 13/2 now upped in trip (he’s not bred to improve for the extra distance, but on the evidence of his previous run he should do so).
Great thing about running one meeting is that there are no distractions and you can really narrow down.
I’ll definitely be backing CW and TK now there is a consensus.
Further look at the 3.50.
Riviera Chic looks one paced and tricky to me and as far as I’m concerned, Jim Crowley’s riding skills fade by fifty percent the moment he passes northbound Toddington services
Claddagh’s damsire is Magic Ring, the brilliantly fast Paul Cole/Fahd Salman sprinter who won the Norfolk and Cornwallis in Whatcombe’s annus mirabilis. I don’t think he’ll get this trip.
Media, Captain Bluebird is by Captain Rio and I think he’s travelling a furlong too far this afternoon – though you have to respect money from this yard. Mapletoft has just tipped him which seldom fills my confidence saucepan to the brim, I don’t know about you.
The Great Husk is paceless and hapless. I love Lily Lily but will be waiting for her return to Southwell. The Market Puzzle race at Southwell looks a bit ropey – Red Valerian Two is blue whale slow – but I was told that day that Mr Brisbourne really likes the ex-Weld import (backed once for that yard)
First blood to Aaron!
Had that filly down as gutless but she was brave enough there. Gower is even more so – off my list altogether – and the poor Featherstone horses are still under the weather: She’s a bloody good trainer too. The ride on the third is a classic of amateur riding – like a frightened oversized duck being chased across a pond by a poacher.The lizard watchers are out in force after that race, with Mr Howling standing accused as the Head Armadillo, but they ought to have been watching the ride given to MisterIsland. A masterpiece of semi-competence, I had to contact the hospital to have my dislocated jaw reset after I noticed it finishing like Dancing Brave down the outside.
Madder still, I appear to have tipped a favourite in the third.
…and a winner too. Desperate price though. I’d need thirty 3/1 shots in a row to dig myself out of the value betting comedy hole I find myself in.
Riviera Chic looks good for a better class handicap than this. The Great Husk ran as you would expect. Tuscan King needs to drop another five pounds. Market Puzzle will win a race when Mr Brisbourne livens up. Claddagh didn’t get the trip though ATR were overly negative about the horse. Has a nice actipn. I can see it running over six or seven. Captain Bluebird missed the break and is now in my horse alerts. Lily Lily won’t be seen at Dunstall again; she loves the long, sweeping elegaic straight at Southwell where she can get down and
boogie
them into submission.
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Well, the conclusion of the 4.50 marked the end of my interest in betting on the all-weather. An otherwise competitive handicap was made to look like an Irish maiden hurdle, with Tom Eaves seemingly the only jockey wanting to win the race.
Tony Culhane’s ‘effort’ aboard Just Timmy Marcus was embarassing.
Media, I take your point about Mr Culhane, who carries the Mark of Cain with each ride he takes, but in this one, Eaves rode them to sleep.
Word around Southwell is that Eaves is unrated amongst the media types and Betfair chattering classes, but I think they are wrong. I’d back him against Winston, Fanning and Makin any day of the week. A good, solid jockey who deserves more mounts. Clever today for hot stable.
Off to Wigan tomorrow so I’ve got to go fill my flask and pack my "Go County" Foam Fingers so here’s tomorrow at the ‘pit.
Race 1:
Aaman
is the unoriginal mention here. A strapping big arsed dapple grey thing with legs like Cyd Charisse and a head like Einstein, he absolutely knocked the eyes out of the assembled paddock watchers last Thursday. But it was like the old Mark Coton joke. “We were all too busy looking for a winner that when a winner came calling, we told him to go away because we were looking for a winner!” So we let him go off at 2/1 in a field of non-entities. One bet like that a month and you can pack in your ice cream round. Unfortunately, the jockey went mad in the face of glory and he’ll be 30/100 tomorrow if you’re lucky.
Race 2: Can’t see my old favourite Black Falcon beating
Dream in Blue
in this. If there is a danger, its Boss Hogg but that’s only because of the influence of the now-seventy strong Midgely yard.
Race 3: If fit,
Young Gladiator
has chances. 332136 over 6f.
21
over the sandpit’s 6f. Westwood, Zefferelli and Where’s Reiley like the course. A combo exacta wouldn’t go too far amiss in a tough race.
Race 4:
Whitbarrow
is well drawn, fancied, fit and dropped in distance and grade. Likes Southwell: The safest option. Stonecrabstomorrow might make him itch a bit late on for the in-form Harris yard. (
12
Sandpit 6f)
Race 5: Coherent cases can be made for all seven racehorses. An easier task might see Gentle Guru conjure up a victory in the toughest contest of the day. Poets Place could be anything and had the locals gasping first time out.
Race 6: If 10/1 was available on
Celestial Girl
I’d steam into her like a munchcrazy pothead spotting a Creme Egg in the fridge.
Ancient Times
is from the Braveheart monastery so only The Almighty knows what is expected; bred (by Smart Strike), to go like the clappers on Fibresand. We all know how much confirmed Home Counties stalwart Peter Makin loves coming this far north so the fact he makes the arduous journey with the choicely bred Balcombe might be a tip in itself.
Race 7: This is a tough race. If Lily Lily runs after today then I’d back her for sentimental reasons. Loves the air round here but Winston jumps on the Barry Hills animal who hung like a non-trier last time. Wedding Dream is up in class but was like a sharp knife through the layer cake last week.
Bet: Lucky 15 first four in bold.
Lucky 31 with Celestial Girl (NAP)
Whitbarrow – SCrabs2moz Exacta 2pts- Total Posts 17716
Used to avoid the AW like the plague. But during the winter when it was the only game in town, slowly came to understand the form. Its low level, but actually quite consistent. These are my picks for LAYs at Southwell..
2.00 Dream In Blue.. small field will be against him here. Nice short price for a confident LAY.
3.00 Whitbarrow…11yo, just not fast enough.
3.30 Charles Parnell…the AW form is low level, but his form is even lower. Confident LAY.
4.30 Paintball.. for the AW , some improvers in here, he is not one of them. Confident LAY again.
1 pt LAY on each, if drifts to over 5/1 NO BET
cheers
Kersivay a bitter disappointment yesterday.
I think Lily Lily is interesting today back on fibresand after finishing last on polytrack at Wolverhampton yesterday. 6lb higher for the win LTO at Southwell, a bold front runner could take some stopping. 16/1 looks value to me.
2.00 Dream In Blue has a good record on the AW and looks the obvious choice . I’m going to oppose though with Inside Story who generally runs well at Southwell and may be able to score off an all time low mark.
2.30 Young Gladiator was caught close home over 7F LTO and with a good jockey booking looks likely to be involved. Wheres Reilly stayed on well over 5F at the course LTO and has won over 6F on good/soft so could go close again. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Quiet Mountain run a decent race as he travelled well for a long way over 7F LTO. The choice however is Not My Choice who has run respectably the last two runs over C&D and can register its first win on the AW.
3.00 Dig Deep would have every chance if reproducing his C&D effort when 2nd in November however two disappointing runs since are a concern. Music Box Express was caught close home LTO in a C&D seller, its first bit of worthwhile form for a while and if reproducing should be thereabouts. Stonecrabstomorrow has a decent record on the AW and has run two decent races over C&D lately in claimers. Should place at the least. Whitbarrow is usually there or there abouts but has one win over 7F in the last two years and is worth opposing. No real confidence about any of them but if pressed would just prefer Stonecrabstomorrow over Dig Deep.
3.30 Poets Place looks the one beat after its debut win however I’m going to chance Ponting who has three recent C&D wins to his name.
Good luck all
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Selections are doing well. Will be coming over to UK to set up my Betfair account and bank account. Been told to go for a basic account with the bank, I have both British and USA passports. Anybody any advice? I have two weeks to get organised. Thanks in advance..
- Total Posts 17716
Selections for both AW meetings ..
LING. 12.40 Chanrossa 1.10 Obe Gold 1.40 Ceto 2.15 Striker Torres 2.50 Totally Focused 3.25 Prince Sabaah
4.00 Zero CoolKEMP.5.00 Benedict Spirit 5.30 Peak District 6.00 Takajan 6.30 Exceedthe…7.00 Lady Brickhouse
thats all
Another pension job. Apologies for lack of write up
215L Rondeau Alt I Confess
250L Hawaana Alt Prince Of Thebes
400L Whodunnit
435L Lopinot
500K Dream Of Fortune Alt Sadeek
530K Glamorous Spirit Alt Absa Lutte
700K Josiah Bartlett Alt Reigning Monarch
800K InquisitressGood luck all
Pretty miserable yesterday but hopefully dear old Wolves tonight will get me a winner. Brief notes for today at Southwell & Wolves
200S Miss Bootylishes has been running well of late and should take a hand in the finish
300S General Tufto is pretty versatile and loves the course. Won over a mile LTO but is effective over todays distance and should give a good account. Charging Indian has a couple of wins recently over C&D and may give GT most to do.
400S Lujiana looks on top of her form recently winning twice over C&D and can go in again. Handsinthemist disappointed LTO behind Lujiana but can be given a chance if returning to its form of last March and is the danger.
430S C&D winner Fulford showed up a lot better LTO and if building on that should be able to take this.
450W Welcome Approach has been running well over C&D and looks the one to beat, however Fantasy Fighter has been in good form also and the form of her second in December to Sarahs Art has thrown up five more winners since the latest of which was Sarahs Art yesterday. So Fantasy Fighter it is for me.
520W A pair of Justs to juggle with in this. I’m going for Just Bond who is consistent at this level and should take the beating. Justcallmehandsome has bits of form that could get him a look in today. Not a bad EW alternative at around 16/1.
620W Minimum stakes for this one but Kirstys Lad has been running consistently well recently and is more likely to run his race than most. Libre is another who is more likely to run his race than most and rates the danger.
750W I have this as a two horse race. Although he is a C&D winner I’m not quite sure that Our Kes gets a truely run 12f however he looks the only alternative to Shandelight who if reproducing his LTO run will take all the beating and Shandelight would be my bet of the evening.
Good luck all
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