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I misread that race much the same as you Max, and just couldn’t have had the winner…
Seems a shame they ran Overstayed yesterday, as there was a winnable entry tonight which they are now bypassing!
Wolverhampton looks desperately trappy, although Vintage Quest has a big turnaround in the weights with My Mirasol in the 4th race (8:20), and is trading at a much bigger price (12/1+). She’ll carry a few win and place sheckels.
At [b:1fxl36ym]Lingfield[/b:1fxl36ym]:
1:45 – I don’t like Honduras [/color:1fxl36ym]much who appears to be on a slippery slope just now. Smallish lay and place-lay[/color:1fxl36ym], because I can’t rule out any of the others.
2:15 – I think Silver Waters has just as much chance as Boy On A Swing here and in a probably weak race, 5/1+ looks a really decent each-way option even with two places, rather than the odds-on fav.
2:45 – Trappy McTrappy, although my feeling is that Solicitude will be overbet, Rosie Cross won’t stay and Nikki Bea has worrying blinkers on. The Jailer should go close with decent figures, and Double Valentine is my other placepot pick.
3:20 – Not convinced that Roundthetwist is all that, Llab Nala surely won’t be allowed such a weak lead, and Hellfire Bay is disappointing/blinkered without looking like that will definitely bring any improvement. I’ll be playing a reversed forecast/exacta on Hit The Roof and Copperbottomed.
3:55 – Not sure. I like Hansinger, but he will probably need this and strikes me as more of a grinder than an ‘accelerator’. It’s hard to rule out Rockfield Tiger, who might be on the upgrade. Nothing solid though.
4:30 – Difficult to have much of a view here – I think Benllech is handicapped about right now and is surely due to go off the boil at some point, but the biggest danger on form Mogok Ruby doesn’t seem suited by the track, and the interesting Chjimes has a tendency to hang his chance away. No bet.
5:00 – Horrible. With three places, I might have backed Only Hope each-way as it is surely only a matter of time with her off this mark now she is fit. Might have a tiny win bet just in case…
I’ve gone in heavily on Hucking Heat to beat Vettorenjoy in a match bet at Lingfield 3.55.
People often comment on how long Lingfield’s last furlong is, and I’ve never known it to feel longer than watching that. Part of the winnings will have to go on getting the trousers dry cleaned!! I got away with that one.
No time so just the bare bones for Wolves tonight
650 Another Genepi, Green Pirate f/c, Gimme Some Lovin t/c
720 One Night In Paris, Casablanca Minx f/c
750 Divine Love (EW), Joe Jo Star f/c
820 Capania, Charlottebutterfly f/c
850 Harry Up, Desert Opal f/c
920 NauticalBest of luck
I have been too busy to make a fool of myself on this part of the forum for a while but here I am again with a horse that caught my eye in the 3:30 race at Lingfield over 10F.
The horse is Philatelist who won a weak 12F maiden at Lingfield last year before running well in some decent turf hcaps. His last run was when he finished 5th over this trip at Beverley and the form of that race has worked out very well. He is up against some reasonable experienced AW horses but if this horse can reproduce last year’s turf form then he will go very close. Fitness after a long time without a run is a concern but looks worth a bet at 6/1 in my opinion.
Pete
I like the look of the 4.05 at Lingfield today. Godfrey Street and Silver Prelude both look like one-dimensional front-runners and I cannot see this race being run at anything but a strong gallop. Ebraam was well suited by similar conditions a fortnight ago where he finished ahead of Fyodor, but he had the run of the race far more than the Haggas horse dd that day. Why Ebraam was switched inside and got a dream run up the rail, Fyodor was shuffled back on the bend and ended up wider than ideal, running on at the death with too much to do. In a smaller field with a low draw, the race should be set up for Queally to track and pounce late, The fact he’s 7 lb better off for 2 lengths with Ebraam looks the icing on the cake. Fyodor at 7/2 is the bet
It will probably be a miracle for me to get another winner this weekend following my 6/1 success yesterday but in the 4:30 Southwell, I like the chances of Zabeel House who has improved on the AW since moving to the John Harris yard. This horse never got into the race at Kempton last time out but ran a decent 3rd at Southwell previously and the form of that race has been boosted by the subsequent fibresand wins of the 2nd and 4th placed horses. Dean McKowen is back in the saddle and I reckon this horse is worth a bet at 9/2.
Pete
Nice 6/1 shot yesterday, SC. Good luck with Zabeel, but I’ve gone with the Harris second string at a huge price in an open race. There is very little solid winning form at a mile in this.
I’ve also backed Liberty Seeker for the stable – the Leicestershire handler could have a good day: one of my favourite stables.
I fancy Sand Repeal at 4.00 in the stayers. A key to this one is the ability to hide in a big field. 313362 in fields of 13-15. He is 132 in Class 6, at Southwell, over todays trip. A place bet to nothing, I think.
But the best bet runs in the first. Astorygoeswithit is one of the biggest twicers in the game. He is a massive price today and yet, he was an unlucky second over today’s exact conditions two runs back. Never seen with a chance on Thursday, a good run today would be entirely in keeping with this one’s personality. Bravery’s horse is 10lb better off with the hyped favourite and is possibly better suited to the bigger field than the Dascombe horse (stays 7f). Despite Thursday’s debacle, I still feel a high draw is the place to be. My chin hit the desk when I saw the insane price.
I’m off down there for Family Fun Day. 200 Pontins holidays to be won. LOL. Remember “Holiday On The Buses”? Best of luck today all.
nice to read an all weather thread
Just to contribute a little guy’s I’ve copied a little off my lay thread regarding the 1.55 seller at Lingfield
Trees Of Green was an ex Godolphin who showed plenty of promise over a few early outing’s but it came apparent through his running style all’s not well mentally towards the end of the season and he proved costly to follow for backers, normally as a rule I keep away from horses trained by the like’s of Wigham/Curley/Martin but I feel this horse will still be worth taking on – hopefully the money will come and give us layers a shorter prrice to get him at, he has the form to win this if he’s sweetend up but these are the kind of horses I like when I’m laying, one that stands out a big price in this race is Carry On Cleo who looks a good for each way theif’s forcasted at 20/1, Cleo faced a tough ask a couple of day’s ago and could go well in this
Anyone else taking Wigham’s charge on?
I too shall be taking on the favourite in the 1.55. I’m going for Northern Desert to put a poor run LTO behind him. Won the time before that and ran well over C&D twice before that. If back to that form should figure. For the forecast I’m going to risk Naughty Thoughts whose C&D form in October would give it a decent EW chance.
In the 3.00 I’m sticking with Joy And Pain who did me a favour LTO. Running against better horses today and a strongish pace ususally suits so a lack of front runners would be a worry. Corlough Mountain however could set a decent pace and Joy And Pain might be able to pick him off. The danger I have as Count Ceprano who ran well enough LTO in a quickish race. Corlough Mountain for the t/c.
In the 4.10 I have it between Play Up Pompey and Josr’s Magic with preference for the former. PUP won over C&D in December with Josr’s Magic behind and 1lb worse off today. That race threw up 6 future winners and if PUP gets the splits at the right time will go very close today. Josr’s Magic usually comes from off the pace also so did well to pinch a race from the front LTO and can follow the selection home if tracking the leaders early on.
Play Up Pompey would be my idea of a good bet, Aaron. Apart from Siena Star, nothing in the field is as suited by todays conditions. If we get another supportive view of the horse in the next hour, I shall back it.
Welcome aboard, Invisible Layer.
Hope you did the reverse exacta in the 1.55 Aaron, good call!
Have followed you in on PUP at Betfred’s generous-looking 10/1, here’s hoping the good form of this thread continues…Thanks Carvills
Actually did the straight forecast thankfully which paid £53 compared to the exacta which paid £40. Is it me or are the exactas now being overbet ?
Can’t get too excited today with Southwell but here goes.
3.10 I’m in two minds over this race but I’m going for Soba Jones to follow up his LTO win. C&D winner 7 times now and still retains enough ability to figure again today. For the f/c I’m going for Phinerine. Its win record is pretty poor but if putting his best foot forward could run in to the places at a decent price.
5.10 Little Wing looks good in this so I will play for the forecast with Traitors Gate who was 3rd LTO behind a big improver with the likely winner of the seller today Mac Dalia behind.
Potentially a favourites day at Southwell, Aaron, so not really my kind of meeting. I did fancy Traitors Gate last night. Interesting breeding profile on age grounds – most of his siblings (including Whaleef) have improved with age and distance (eight flights of hurdles have often helped).
I also heard at the races that Johnston used to think highly of the colt. However Rapidity beat this one a lot further than he did Bold Diva at Kempers, so I’m not getting carried away.
If you take the hyped Little Wing out of the race (beat trees impressively last time) then you’ve got a problem finding opposition with stamina. I couldn’t have Ballycroy Boy or Bold Diva for that reason, Loose Caboose has no chance of getting home at Southwell and my original fancy Easy Wonder is worryingly easy to back.
Best of luck with your selections.
You might think that there isn’t a punter alive who is unsatisfied with today’s racing. Certainly, the Sandmen of Rolleston were more than happy with six winning jollies and plenty of money for old Soba Jones. Despite the cold, there was a good atmosphere down there and for most punters,picking winners was like shelling peas.
However, I managed to get through the day not backing any of them: waiting patiently, all day, like a professional, and having the one single win bet on the above horse. Which finished last.
Congratulations on another good day, Aaron.
Going for as Max calls it a pension bet today
225 Ling Thoughtsofstardom has been running consistently without winning but if he can reproduce its run from November behind Lost All Alone in a quickish time will go close. Zazous who was only a length behind that day likewise shouldn’t be far away for the f/c now back at Lingfield.
300 Ling If Caprio gets to the start in one piece I think he will win well. Won at Wolves & Kempton and ran OK on its first visit to Lingfield LTO. Changed stables since which sometimes is a worry. For the f/c Southwest Star.
620 Kemp Stoneacre Boy won over C&D in October before running poorly on his next three starts. The return to C&D LTO led to an improved run and back off its winning mark of 59 could win this. Hollow Jo ran well the last time it ran over C&D behind Smokin Beau and with a good pace anticapated can run on in to the forecast spot.
650 Kemp I’m going to take a chance on Wizby reversing recent form with Mr Chocolate Drop on 6lb better terms. Yet to win on the AW is a concern though. For the f/c I’m going for a decent price with A Teen whose run LTO was its best in a while.
750 Kemp Silca Destination if able to reproduce C&D running from November would go close.
820 Kemp Chancing Sion Hill to lead from the off and repel all challenges. Jessica Wigmo if overcoming the draw could follow SH home.
850 Davids Mark has been running well over C&D culminating in a win LTO. Off a 3lb higher mark should go close again.Gone N Dunnett is not the most consistent but if reproducing its last run over C&D in November might sneak the forecast spot.
So thats me retired after today
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