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Wolverhampton 16:20 5f 216y Class 4
1. Harry Up
Tried to make all at Lingfield last time out (no easy task), he ran IMO a decent enough race, only getting overhauled towards the final furlong. Suited by fastish ground on turf – his previous two runs on that surface can be ignored. His record at Wolverhampton makes good reading, 2 wins from 3 visits. He appears on a stiffishish mark, and although his jockey claims 7lb – I have not seen the lad ride a winner or ride at all!! – Has the inside birth and looks certain to try and make all. Got to be on the short-list.
2.Pieter Brueghel
Another who likes to lead and will probably have enough pace to be pushing Harry Up early on taking into account this is a drop in grade for him. On a decent enough mark and no surprise to see him go close – but with this being his first run at Wolverhampton there has to be some doubts to his effectiveness.
3. Campo Beuno
Highly tried on his only 5 starts for new connections, he has performed with credit on a couple of occasions and he is tough to way up. His lack of experience might count against him here, but he is difficult to discount.
4. Will He Wish
His recent form looks on the decline and would need to recapture some of his old sparkle to get involved here, that though is enitirely possible and tends to pop up at big prices. Holds decent course form, albeit when in form himself.
5. Grimes Faith
Has bits and pieces of form that give him a squeak, but overall not too impressive – first to Wolverhampton and a possible to make the frame but not much else. Another who likes to be up with pace.
6. Foreign Edition
Lightly raced and appears to have come back to form in his last two runs, comes right into the reckoning on his most recent outing when staying on after hitting a flat spot – the out and out gallop likely on here should suit.
7. Connect
Appears on a good mark and his recent effort took a couple of judges eyes, dropped another 2lb since that effort and his hold up style of running likely to be suited by this strong pace race, goes onto my short-list, but clearly needs a bit of luck in running.
8. Rosein
Has hit form recently and on last time outs run holds similar credentials to Connect. Must be on the short-list.
9. Kingscross
A belated attempt at A/W racing, if he takes to the surface has a chance of placing – inexperienced jockey and a poor win to run ratio puts me off – a watching brief.
10. Law Maker – DOUBTFUL
11. Stellite
Reasonably handicaped and has experience on the track, but not conviced this is his trip and could find things happening to quickly for him here.
12. Nusoor
Not shown enough to deserve a win in this race and would be IMO a unlikely winner.
<br>A tough race to call – but with plenty of pace on it looks made for one of the come from behind – chasing leader type runners.
I like the look of in no particular order: Connect, Foreign Edition and Rosien.
If Harry Up is given a soft lead – he could be difficult to catch, but I think there will be a little too much battling up front and he could get found out, a bunch finish is in prospect – and depending on the price old veteran Connect could be the one to back E/W.
I’ll be back on tomorrow with a final decision.
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 2:46 am on Nov. 16, 2006)
After having a chance to review the some of the ATR video footage – I’ve become more conviced with Foreign Editions chance today. The strong pace will suit him and at anything over 4/1 he looks a good E/W bet.
After having a chance to review the some of the ATR video footage – I’ve become more conviced with Foreign Editions chance today. The strong pace will suit him and at anything over 4/1 he looks a good E/W bet.
My lesson from yesterday is basically that you can’t win them all.
I went to bed with a shortlist of 4 and a plan to back these in 30p exacta combs, 10p tricast combs, plus £2 wins (*) on the two biggest priced runners (the same tenner I eventually invested unsuccessfully).
The shortlist, as can probably be deduced from my previous comments, consisted of:
EFISTORM*<br>ANFIELD DREAM*<br>MATUZA<br>DANCING MYSTERY.
D’oh!
In the end, having looked at the early trading and available prices, I decided that Efistorm offered much the best value and built the whole thing around him. I was put off Anfield Dream because the apparent tissue value appeared to have gone. I also appended two more runners who I thought had some kind of ‘value’ chance to my list, these being Graze On and Turn On The Style.
The four on my overnight list finished 1-2-3-5, and I lost. (The two I added finished 4th and 7th).
Obviously value is important but perhaps I am too ‘greedy’ and too reluctant to settle for a smaller price than I expected, even if this still potentially underestimates the true chance of that runner.
Also, maybe, were I not a full-time worker, there were opportunities for guaranteed exchange profit here on Efistorm, whose price effectively halved. Having identified that it was too big but still no more than a possible winner, perhaps I should have taken advantage of this.
Good call to those who picked DM, and well done with Little Edward, FSL. <br>
Thursday…
5:20 Wolverhampton<br>For me, the best opportunity today comes in opposing Mantle in the 5:20. There are already 3 non-runners taking this down to 7, and I’m even vaguely hopeful that it may be a good placepot leg now.
The form of Mantle is not progressive and connections might even appear desperate to get a win into her now (before it’s too late). Whilst boasting the best form claims, she does not have as much in hand over GO AMWELL as their relative handicap marks suggest. Added to the fact that the Jenkins runner ran his best race last time, seems likely to appreciate this trip, and the yard remains in excellent form, I think this looks worth taking a chance on.
None of the other runners makes much appeal at all making the chances of total surprise result pretty slim. Of those that remain, the only positives I can see are that Drumfergus Boy has only had one start on very soft ground and has been sent over from Ireland, Monte Major has run ok a couple of times recently and seems to stay albeit moderately, and Mr Kayos has been perservered with having hinted at a little ability once or twice.
Conclusion<br>Whilst I don’t have access to current prices, I don’t expect there to be any each-way value available, so I’m going with the following sick squid…
GO AMWELL £2.50 win
GO AMWELL to beat MANTLE £2 exacta
GO AMWELL to beat {Drumfergus Boy, Monte Major, Mr Kayos} 3 x 50p s/f/c
<br>4:20<br>For what it’s worth, I looked quite long and hard at this and ended up with a short list of three, these being Foreign Edition, Will He Wish and Harry Up. I don’t think Connect will have the pace to get competitive and Rosein will do well to get involved in such a competitive heat from that draw.
Harry Up tends to race very prominently and drawn on the inside, his inexperienced rider will do extremely well to make all on him, so he is reluctantly passed over.
Another sick squid here…
Foreign Edition £3 win<br>Will He Wish £2 win
Plus a 50p reversed exacta<br>
Nice one NV,  ;) ÂÂÂ
(Mantle had it in the bag but went lame and was pulled up)
still, a 6/1 winner and a nice f/c which paid £60.15
Thanks Jim, but yes, a bit of a hollow victory and I’m not convinced my f/c strategy was sound in any event – it should probably have been a straight win (or at 6/1 e/w) bet.
Am not averse to luck though…
17:50 Wolverhampton 5f 216y Class (5)
1. Stoic Leader
Doesn’t look to be in the best of form and the trip of 6 furlongs wouldn’t look to be his ideal distance. He is on a winning mark though, has won over the course and the distance and is difficult to discount if coming back to form. A look at his career history suggests he is difficult to predict and could easily pop up.
2. La Motta
Irish raider and very difficult to evaluate, clearly has plenty of pace, but this trip might be a furlong to far – we are going to have to discount, although the market should give us some indication to his chance.
3. City for Conquest
Popped up in a 3-y-o only handicap 2 starts ago, but her last run, in a claimer, a race she probably should have won, raises concerns. She been claimed and now runs under trainership of T.Pitt. She has been given a good month off since that run and steps up in trip a furlong for the first time here, has strong claims based on her recent improvement in form. Her good course form is a bonus and has to go on the short-list.
4. Cape Presto
On the balance of his recent form looks a little high in the weights and the drop back in trip doesn’t look like to suit on breeding. He will need a career best effort to win here.
5. Steel Blue
Out of form and impossible to fancy.
6. Ten to the Dozen
Showed a bit of pace last time out and this drop back in trip is clearly a result of that – looks harshly handicapped and would be major surprise if he could win from his outside draw.
7. Catspraddle
Looks like she likes Windsor with 2 wins from 3 starts there. Feasibly weighted here, but I can’t have her on this new surface for the first time.
8. Tag Team
Always runs creditably here and gained his first win over CD recently under Jamie Spencer. Stepped up in grade slightly last time out and dropped back a furlong. The combination did for his chance and he ran on one pace. Back over 6 furlongs he has place claims – but could be in the grip of the handicapper win wise.
9. True Magic
Down to a reasonable handicap mark after some poor average efforts on the turf. She can go well after a break, showing that winning here back in March, albeit in a weaker race. The market is usually a good guide to the trainers expectations. She will need to step up a little on her form and I just can’t see her winning this.
10. Cool Sting
First start at Wolverhampton and would need to show a bit of improvement to get involved here – passed over.
11. Count Cougar
His 3 most recent efforts inspire no confidence and it would be a major shock if he popped up.
12. Johnstone’s Diamond
An inconsistent winner and his effort 3 days ago was nothing special – would need a major effort from his wide draw to trouble the judge.
13. Dance to the Blues
Race didn’t pan out for her at Kempton last time out – leading early and the losing a couple of places close home. This drop back in trip should suit and has a chance off her current mark.
I’ve got the race down to three probables… Stoic Leader, City for Conquest and Dance to the Blues. I feel City for Conquest has the most improvement and a repeat of her recent efforts would already see her go close – if we can get 4/1 a decent E/W bet is in prospect. Depending on the price of the other two I could go for a small win saver on Stoic Leader and E/W on Dance to the Blues…
<br>(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 6:46 am on Nov. 17, 2006)<br>
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 6:49 am on Nov. 17, 2006)
I looked at the 5:50 but decided it fell into the too difficult tray.
I don’t like the fact that there is so much potential early pace, without there being too many out and out trail-blazers. Overall, it looks like a race for stalkers/closers, but there is little to separate most of the field, so I can see tons of traffic problems early on in the straight.
For placepot purposes, I have plumped for:
Stoic Leader – inconsistent, as Sailing Shoes says, but might benefit from not being quite able to keep up with the front-runners early on, and should be finishing strongly with any luck. Shame that the RP Spotlight selects him.
True Magic – seems well treated now and could be dropped out and brought through late on. Weak in the early exchanges, but should be overlooked by the majority of placepotters.
Cool Sting – stepping out of non-handicap company, but again is one who will be away from the likely hecticness ahead and is actually not badly weighted imho.
Have not had a penny on any of these three so if they romp home, I’ll be feeling even more of a mug than usual!!!
(Dance To The Blues might run ok, but the plethora of what are basically speed merchants here puts me off, whilst City For Conquest has a reasonable form chance but is taking on older horses and the general feeling that the sun is currently shining from the Pitt yard’s bum leads me to think it might be seriously over-selected)<br>
3:50 Wolverhampton<br>Just an ordinary maiden, but one which looks solvable and might offer a little value…
Basically, the early money seems to indicate support for the chances of a couple of runners I don’t see getting involved. Bold Indian looked very slow in two Irish runs on soft ground, so I have big doubts about him having sufficient pace here. Also, Giant Slalom looks a big no-no for me, with one ok turf run followed by one very moderate polytrack run – the excuses made for that run don’t seem to be a proper explanation for a non-performance in a very weak heat. Finally, I’ll chance that Cape Thea won’t be up to this first time out – most often this will be right, especially concerning a cheaper horse where it is not absolutely hammered off the boards.
Given that there are several very poor looking animals littering the remainder of the field, this leaves me with three:
Vadinka – hugely consistent, although potentially always likely to try and find one to beat it
Chasing Memories – valid excuse when hampered last time and previous form easily good enough to get involved here
Stoneacre Gareth – only two runs so open to some improvement and looks to be going the right way (as does the stable form). Should be a nice price for one with a chance.
Hopefully the interest in three ‘rejects’ will ensure a reasonable spread of stakes across the race, and my hope for a return is a 6 x £1 exacta combination, with fingers very much crossed…<br>
Prefer sprint distances so ignored the 2:40 & 3:15 at Lingfield
2:10 7f – iBetX.com Betting Exchange Handicap (Class 2)
9/2 Areyoutalkingtome, 5/1 Qadar, Vortex, 8/1 Secret Night, Mr Lambros, 16/1 Bar
Trappy :o With tonnes of pace in the race I’ve plumped for horses that will come from off the pace.
Selected are
Areyoutalkingtome: 3lbs rise not excessive for 1¼ length win (ran in the best time of the day). Horse and jock combine again.
Qadar: Stamina concerns should have made him a ‘no bet’, but with some much pace in the race, at a price I’m hoping he can pick off exhausted horses in the final furlong. Signs of coming back to form in recent race and favourably handicapped on all-weather form
Vortex is passed over today due to current form, draw and recent form of the trainer. But I’ll pop down the local bookies throw him in a small (50p) reverse forecast with the other two.<br>
(Edited by slipperytoad at 12:52 pm on Nov. 18, 2006)
Lingfield 3.15
Off to the football today, but have looked at this race and have come to the following conclusions.
Front running winners at Lingfield are as rare as hens teeth and I can’t have Group Captain. He is better over 1m 4f and needs cut in the ground. I cannot see how Charlton’s admirable handicapper can win this despite the rave reviews everywhere.
At Leafy, horses which are held up often have an advantage and if there is sufficient pace, (admittedly it is not clear whether this will be the case), then the race could be set up for a hold-up animal. ÂÂÂ
Case in point, the two Cambridgeshire runners could be well suited by the demands of this race; Charlie Cool and Blue Bajan.
The former is from an in-form stable, is a fast improving 3-y-o, needs a firmer surface than encountered last time, is ready for a step up to Listed, is at an ideal distance, and looks to have been laid out for this. Too many positives too ignore. There is a slight worry about his low draw, but in Jimmy Fortune, backers have an ally who knows Lingers like the back of his hand.
In case Charlie finds trouble, I’ve saved on Blue Bajan who finished ahead of Charlie Cool at Newmarket and is consistently underrated by the market due to his connections. Has a rare turn of foot and horses with his extreme hold up profile do well at Lingfield.
Interesting to see how that old heartbreaker Nayyir performs in first time blinkers!
Good luck today, whatever.:biggrin:
Too busy with the jumps and only had time to look at the 2:40 Lingfield.
Tissue: (100%)<br>Cold Turkey 2/1<br>Orcadian 5/2<br>Sweet Indulgence 9/1<br>Country Pursuit 10/1
With my ‘novice aw’ head on I seem to have overlooked any need for aw form, and the supposed notion you can’t make all at Lingfield. In doing so I’ve put the class horse in short against very little. So, let’s see!
With 8 runners Country Pursuit would be the one to interest me for ew (double) purposes but I can’t find a complementary race.
I’m measuring how well I fare at this aw experiment both on my own AND after learning from this thread. So with no-one having studied this race, this bet will have to be down to me alone!
Orcadian 8pts win at 7/2 (6pts = 1% of starting bank)<br>
These early starts are a pain in the bum! Have managed to squeeze in a sight test as well this morning, somehow, so everything is a bit rushed. See – I’m getting my excuses in early!!!
I’ve also concentrated on the 2:40 at Lingfield…
Punta Galera – normally a furlong or two of dodgy stamina wouldn’t be much of a concern round here, but for me this horse clearly doesn’t stay even a truly-run 10 furlongs, and with Orcadian in the field there should be plenty of pace on. Two wins both came after getting a pretty soft lead, so looks a very unlikely winner in this heat.
Mighty Moon – both wins were on soft turf and untried off grass, with nothing much in his pedigree or relatives to sway us one way or t’other. Very good win last time makes him interesting though, as does the fact that this small yard had a nice winner yesterday.
Postage Stamp – stable appears to be in shocking form and no obvious excuse for a weak effort last time. With a definite stamina query to boot, this looks one to leave alone.
Sweet Indulgence – yard have had 4 winners from their last 9 runners (over +50pts to a 1pt stake) in the past fortnight. Has not run that fast recently, but style of last win over C&D was impressive and well worth considering.
Country Pursuit – didn’t expect much from him at Southwell over too far during the week, but he has now shown very little three times since a summer break. He seems to thrive on racing however, so ought to do better over his ideal course and distance, but big question marks remain…
Honduras – two promising runs back after a year off have been followed by two awful efforts, so has to rate an unlikely winner. Am nagged a little but him though and can’t quite rule him out entirely for some reason!
Cold Turkey – fantastically reliable come-from-behind sand-lark, but for me may have lost a little speed now and races as though he would benefit from going 2 miles more often than not. Can see him placing but looks poor value for the win at less than 2/1.
Orcadian – loves testing ground and front runs (wildly at times). Personally, I very much doubt that he will be able to hold on and make all round here, and I can see him getting swamped and ending up nowhere. That said, remains a dark horse and one about which I (we?) can only guess!
Conclusion<br>My head tells me that Cold Turkey is too short here, although he clearly has a chance.<br>The most appealing runners are SWEET INDULGENCE and MIGHTY MOON, with the first named of that pair clearly preferred.
SWEET INDULGENCE – £4 win<br>MIGHTY MOON – £1 win<br>2 x 50p r/f/c
For the record…
2:10 – This looks very tight and the Scandinavian raider is an uncomfortable unknown. Three horses I think will go well are Orchard Supreme, Qadar and Secret Night, but the market reflects their chances pretty well and it is a no-bet race for me.
3:15 – Very good quality event, which in the past has always been won by a horse rated over 100 by the official handicapper. This puts me off my fancy slightly, but on the clock Bahar Shumaal has every chance here. Of the highest rated runners, Group Captain should go very close with the stable in great form, and of the others I just have a feeling Kindlelight Debut might be suited by the extra distance and hustle of this contest. I will play this trio to the usual small stakes. I don’t like Millville much, with this trip looking all wrong.
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