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Max
Saw the Anduril race and both that & Alasil never really got competitive at all. Also managed to see the last race where Morbick hacked up and I thought at one point I might be in with a chance of the forecast with Candy Anchor. Candy Anchor travelled really well but when push came to shove the young lady on top didn’t impress.
I quite like three at Wolves tonight , no write up I’m afraid as my 2 year old has the sickness and diarrhoea thing but they are
650 Gifted Heir
850 Danetime Lord
920 JustcallmehandsomeNot great prices but if they win that’ll do.
Hope you had the conviction to back Fajr at Lingfield. Like Maverick I strongly fancied Troubadour but the pace for that one was too slow I think
Regards
Hi aaron, best of luck with those tonight. I had a little on Fajr, but 5/2 isn’t something that keeps me awake at night.
I backed Danetime Lord last time and the worry I have with him is his running style.
I’ve virtually given up backing at Wolver until the executive quicken the surface up – if your horse isn’t in the first three coming round that bend then forget it. And the market knows that, hence the tight prices.
However, Justcallmehandsome looks to have loads in its favour.Hope your daughter gets better soon. I’ve had that s & d thing recently and it is gruesome.
Cheers. Max
Good start to the evening with Gifted Heir.
"Hope your daughter gets better soon. I’ve had that s & d thing recently and it is gruesome. "
Tell me about it ! As soon as it goes in it comes straight back up again. She’s a boy by the way !
Nice night’s work, Aaron.
The Handsome one was never headed and the front runner bias worked in 5/6 races. Danetime was ridden more prominently than usual and if you ask me, I don’t think it gets 7f properly.
The stewards have enquired into where the this poster got the idea that you wrote "daughter" in your last message. The trainer offered no explanation.
Hope your young un is better.Back Tuesday.
Three Classified Stakes tomorrow at Kempton and Wolver. There are no clear trends I can see – except losing – but I do enjoy the challenge of finding Banded winners. Three front runners:
1.50 K Bollywood, (EW). Form figures in January. 2177 Slight doubt about whether this one stays. Dane O Neill rides for the first time in 21 runs: Record 2 and an unlucky 6. Might also get an easy lead. The rest of the field find winning difficult.
2.00 W Makfly. (Win). If there is a trainer in hotter form than the ageless Reg Hollinshead, I’m not sure who it is. The yard have made a blistering start to the year. This hard puller, at first glance, looks dicey. However, he was hit hard by the handicapper for a win at Donny and has come down in the weights. Makfly has been tried at all trips and he plainly doesn’t stay 1m4f and doesn’t enjoy jumping. Over this mile, drawn 1, in Class 7 for the first time, and under the bang in form Miss Turner, I have a feeling that he could bounce out and make all. Even for a Banded stakes this one is gruesome and the wily Reg will have noticed that.
4.30 Charlotte Grey (Win) looks very difficult to meet under the very competent Jack Mitchell. However, I’ll also be backing Stargazy at a massive price. Drawn 1, this one led most of the way over a trip too far last time and drops back to the trip of it’s finest hour, a Class 5 fourth last December. That would be good enough to place in this at least.
Best of luck
Max
Bollywood finished 4th of 13 by a short head, Makfly was punted from 24 last night to 8.5 at the off and 10 – 13/2 at the course, before running mulishly; Charlotte was in no danger except from my dark horse, Stargazy who I got at 22 finishing a closing second.
Tomorrow:
1.00 Favouring (EW) Follows some typical MC Chapman trial and error race selection by racing once again under his ideal conditions. Class 6 6f. Southwell. 22362 Big price and up against some horses not particularly suited to fibresand. Particularly suited to a larger field, well drawn and well handicapped. The stable is in decent form and the currently vogueish P Donaghy rides. Currently a big price and a few of Chappers’ horses have been punted just lately.
3.00 Kylkenny (EW)What’s noticeable about this race is the lack of Class 4 form. I’m a big fan of Class limits on the AW and most of the opposition is Class 5/6 in this. This old warhorse, when running over the Derby trip, at Southwell in Class 4 is 1132217 Nothing else has this kind of form – though this sexy Prescott thing could be Cesarewitch class of course and Three Boars is a lovely horse to watch.
The best of luck. Max, (where is everyone?)
Morning Max
My boy decided it would be good if his Dad had a dose of the lurgy so I have been ejecting bodily fluids from all angles for the last two days ! Too much information ?
Don’t like Southwell today apart from the first at 1.00. I wouldn’t put you off yours, 6F at Southwell seems to be his best C&D but I’d be surprised if there wasn’t one or two more likely winners.
I shall be backing Imperial Sword who admittedly is on the downgrade but ran a little better last time out and if reproducing that effort should go well. For the forecast I am taking a chance with Trinculo who if on a going day will go close and finally for the tricast I’ll nominate Soba Jones who wasn’t too far behind Imperial Sword LTO
With regard to the 3.00 I can’t see past the Prescott horse so I wish you luck with Kylkenny
Afternoon Aaron,
Favouring was 4th at 55 and 9.
I don’t have the analytical skills/vocabulary to explain the result of the 3.00. Hope you’re feeling better!
Max
Maxilon
1st MASLAK (IRE)
Last three times out has improved each time by an improved corrected time by 6.717 and then 2.041. Has run previously in a corrected time of 154.204 on 21/9/07 which is the fastest time over this distance. Has the 3rd fastest average for the last three runs at this distance. Has the fastest corrected time over ANY distance.
2nd CALCULATING (IRE)
Won LTO in a corrected time of 162.229, which was a corrected improvement of 6.118 on the 3/1/08 run. Has run in a corrected time of 156.179 on 8/12/07.
3rd BENTLEY BROOK (IRE)
Won 2nd LTO in a slower corrected time than LTO. Last three times out has improved each time by an improved corrected time by 4.837 and 0.785. Has run in a corrected time of 154.320 on 28/4/07. Has the second fastest time over this distance. Has the best form for the last three races run at this distance. Has the 2nd fastest corrected time over ANY distance.
Quadrilla
Are they your own corrected times ? If so am I right in assuming you base the going allowance on the times of all races on any particular day to ascertain the correction per furlong ?
A corected time of 6.717 equates to about an improvement of over 30 lengths doesn’t it and I believe that was run at Wolverhampton and not Southwell, which is 50yds further and therefore more difficult to compare best times over the distance or are you comparing to your or RP standard times ?
Were you on Maslak per chance ?
aaronizneez
Extract from Picking Winners – Andrew Beyer.
“The only time-consuming part of the process is the compilation of a set of average times for all the classes that a track offers. With these averages, a horseplayer can construct a parallel-time chart so that he can compare, at a glance, the performance of horses who have been running at different distances. With averages he can use the par-time method and make track variants in only a few minutes a day. He will be able to assess, more accurately than the vast majority of bettors, the real meaning of horses’ times.â€
Quadrilla
Apologies if my post seemed to you to be critical in any way, that was not the intention. I was merely trying to find out how you came to your figures or what factors you took in to consideration.
On the AW I take alot of notice of times. However historically I have found it difficult to equate the times to the different courses because of the different surfaces and therefore tend to concentrate on previous course form. I’m alright at Wolves, Lingfield is OK, Southwell I think still needs to settle down after the floods and Kempton I’m useless at.
I am still unsure as to how you calculate the corrected time. In my previous post I assumed you attributed a going adjustment however obviously I was mistaken.
Am I right in thinking you take the average time achieved in the class and equate that to the time completed by the horse ?
What I mean by this is that you ascertain how good that horse is in its class as a percentage and then equate that to the average time of the race it is running in today and therfore who ever comes out fastest is the top rated ?Do you take weight in to consideration ? Do you input any factors in to increase / decrease of race distance ie 10f form but running over 12f ?
I have never read Beyer but am aware of him through reading other bits and pieces, maybe I should take a look ?
Quadrilla
Forgot to ask do you use only the winners time to calculate the average time ?
A bit of a throw-away selection in a race I am quite fond of after last year…
8:50 Kempton
With all eyes (kind of) on Legend Erry who appears to have been mullered for waltzing away with two non-events at Southwell, I am drawn towards the talented hurdler (and promising if error-prone chaser) Dont Call Me Derek.
He has plenty of ability and has won on the all-weather, and is of considerable interest at a massive price against a field with similar question marks against them (many of whom should go well or at least could but might not based on previous efforts and these conditions).
Selection
Dont Call Me Derek
(a bit to win, and a much smaller bit in tricasts to beat the field ignoring Legend Erry)[/color:1jvfp80u]Back to good old Wolves tonight
750
Desert Opal – Reasonably consistent sort who has done most of its winning at Wolverhampton although only win on AW in the last year has been a claimer. Place chance at best for me
Fizzlephut – Both wins on AW have been over course and distance and down to its last winning mark. A tad disappointing LTO, however not sure leading from the start suits. Jockey on board has ridden Triskaidekaphobia to two recent wins but keeps faith with this one.
Triskaidekaphobia – Won 3 out of last 4 over C&D but a stone higher than it first win in Dec. Should still get the lead and if left alone could prove hard to peg back.
Strathmore – Running respectably without winning at Wolves before opening all weather account at Southwell over 6F. Back to 5F today which I don’t think will help. passed over today.
Multahab – A little disappointing when last seen in October however was drawn wide that day. His win in September would probably be good enough and trainer isn’t adverse to landing a touch so watching the market would prove indicative.
Hawaii Prince – Poor run on first try on AW LTO. Best left alone today
Lord Of The Reins – Reasonable AW record though would seem to prefer 6F, however will be fininshing better than most so wont be far away at the death.
Music Box Express – Won its maiden over C&D in December but has come up short in two C&D hcap appearances since. Not for me.The two Tooth runners Fizzlephut & Triskaidekaphobia could hold the key to this with my fancy being Fizzlephut to pick up Triskaidekaphobia late on. I do fear Multahab if back to his best but once again he is drawn wide.
No time for a write up I’m afraid but I do fancy a couple at Wolves this afternoon
140 Commander Wish
250 Run From Nun (Forecast Tahlamahana)Silver Pivotal looks a potential pattern filly in the 2.50 at Lingfield and yet is able to run off a mark of 98. She won a listed race at York on her last start by a neck from Promising LEad who went on to finish placed in the Pric de L’Opera later in the season. Graduation finished 2 lengths further away in third, and her run, when second in a competitive fillies handicap at the Jukly meeting off a mark of 92 highlights that 98 is an absolute minimmum mark for Silver Pivotal to be running off.
She’s obvioulsy had her problems not to have run since May, but she won on polytrack first time up as a 3-y-o. SHould have no problem with step up to 10f and I’ll be surprised if she isn;t rated better than 98 mid way through the summer.
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