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Good afternoon
With only 4 going to post it looks like it could be tactical, but Callan should be wise to this scenario and Millville can prove as his handicap mark implies, far above those that remain in opposition in the 2.45 at Leafy
Odds on poke imo
Good one there, Charlie. Callan is a jockey I never get right but he rode that one competently enough.
6.20 K. Orchestration might be the buzzer in this Banded stakes.
Form at 5f in Class 7: 39133114216
His form at Kempton is inconclusive, bearing in mind he has never run over 5f there and he patently finds winning over 6f, (the distance at which he has raced at Sunbury before) difficult.
Stewart Parr had a good winner – the first for ages – on New Years Eve. The owners love a punt. Orchestration has finished runner up after a short break before, the usual visor is back on, and the Post have it joint top rated. This is a dreadful race – a brilliant punting medium – where the top four have big weakesses. 8/1 is an excellent price each way for the cautious.
Best of luck whatever you back.
Max
2:50 Southwell
Essentially, I’m interested in this 7f handicap as it looks really, really poor. Totally Free is a non-runner now, leaving just 6 runners and the strong possibility of a very moderate early pace.
Elusive Warrior is the likely favourite and runs here rather than the very average looking claimer he was entered in yesterday (‘vets certificate’ of course). That bypassed entry would suggest that connections are far from confident that he is well treated at present and the Fahey yard have had several fancied runners disappoint in the last couple of weeks. He might be good enough in a race this weak and is proven over course and distance, but his recent form figures are potentially slightly flattering and he looks plenty short enough.
Neither Ginger Princess nor Josh have ever raced on fibresand, and it is a specialist surface. Whilst some Irish raiders have done well recently, Oliver McKiernan has not previously tested the water at the track and Ginger Princess might just find this trip sharp enough, especially if the race develops into a sprint from the home turn. Josh, meanwhile, appears to have seriously lost the plot and seems to have no trip (or enthusiasm) at present.
A Teen is not in any sort of form to speak of, has never had a good strike-rate, and with just 5 places and no wins from 26 course efforts, cannot be entertained for all that this handicap is as weak as they come.
Pauline’s Prince is at least running well at the moment, and might be fully fit now, but would almost certainly benefit from being covered up in a bigger field with a strong pace, and this small-field slow-pace scenario has to be a big negative.
And this leaves what I see as the value option. Government has shown signs of life recently and is likely to be the lone pace here and as such able to dictate matters from the front. He has a decent enough course record for a horse so moderate and has done this despite never having recorded a decent speed figure. Normally, this would be negative, but it is in just this type of event that he will be in his element, and the Chapman yard has been doing ok with its moderate inmates just lately. Clearly, he is no star, but is on a fair mark and ran respectably in a decent race last week – he might not win, but has a better chance than the market suggests (even in light of some gentle early support).
Recommendation
GOVERNMENT – a few quid to win[/color:3fknu3pd]Apologies for the brief analysis of the runners as I know it would be good to go in to a bit more detail but I’m at work !
3.50Southwell
Chiff Chaff – Bits and pieces of form on AW but poor run LTO. Market confidence may be best guide.
Starcross Maid – Won over C&D in May off 53. Poor last few runs but now down to 51.
Boppys Pride – Not convinced AW suits and well stuffed both tries previously at Southwell albeit over shorter
Don Pasquale – Not won in 21 tries on the AW although has run well at Southwell. Not for me
Granary Girl – Reasonably consistent though like BP well stuffed both tries previously at Southwell albeit over shorter
Danelor – Not what he was but does have C&D form over last 12 months winning off 46 in Feb. Better run LTO and stable in form.
Sorbiesharry – On a long losing streak and never won over this far. Can’t see it starting today.
Mi Odds – Running on favoured surface but in decline and on a long losing run.Not the greatest race in the world but maybe an opportunity for a nice priced winner. For me I have narrowed it down to Chiff Chaff, Starcross Maid, Granary Girl & Danelor. Although it was early in her career I am discarding Granary Girl on grounds of poor runs at Southwell. Chiff Chaff is also discarded as I would like to see a good run from new trainer before considering although having said that if there is any market confidence that might change things. That leaves Danelor & Starcross Maid. Danelor should be the one after his better effort last time and his C&D form however if I can get 12/1 for Starcross Maid I think I might take a chance on this one coming back to form off an official mark of 51 less his claimers 3lb allowance.
So its 12/1 or greater Starcross Maid
Unlucky with Government, NV. Heavily backed from 20 to 6 and unfortunate to come up against the Irish raider in the weakest race he’s run in this year. I thought this one was being set up for March – Chapman believes this is a spring animal – but clearly global warming has brought him on.
And well done with Starcross Maid, Aaaronizneez. Good price too,
Thanks Max – not a good day really, although the bar is still rattling. I also managed to get 2nd/3rd/4th from my exacta perm in the maiden race (at decent prices too).
And well done indeed aaronizneez – top stuff with Starcross Maid!
Thanks Max & NV,
I don’t normally do very well at Southwell but Inontime let me down for a treble with Starcross Maid & Sweet Pickle, but hey, musn’t be greedy.
For some reason I tend to well at Wolverhampton, OK at Lingfield, seem to be getting the hang of Southwell but Kempton remains a mystery to me for some reason.
Had a look at tomorrows meeting at Wolverhampton and don’t really like much so I’ll concentrate on the worst race on the card the 650.
Ask No More seems to be prominent over further and yet finished well the only time it tried 5F at Southwell. However racing at this level for the first time.
Blushing Russian ran OK last time out at Kempton and was a C&D winner last January off 46. Stable however hasn’t had an AW winner since August last year.
Borzoi Maestro C&D winner in April 07 but hasn’t been sighted since including being thumped in this class LTO
Dodaa ran reasonably well LTO over C&D and wouldn’t be far away if reproducing that. Both wins however have been at Southwell.
Dottys Daughter looks on the downgrade and a better run at Kempton last time though maybe not enough to suggest a likely win
Is Mise An Ri doesnt look good enough even in this grade
Mind That Fox ran 4th over C&D last Sept and most of its best runs have been over C&D. Not been placed in 20 runs however
Mujart won off 50 at Leicester in the summer but its latest races are poor
Orchestration has been reasonably consistent of late and was a C&D winner off 47 last February.
Prime Recreation is a light of his former self and would be surprised if he troubled these.
She’s Our Beauty doesn’t seem to like Wolverhampton
Stoneacre Donny finished just ahead of Dodaa last time and like Dodaa wouldn’t be far away if reproducing that. The draw doesn’t help however
Tibinta is reasonably consistent but has yet to win after 20 startsAll in all a pretty poor lot. Orchestration could go close as could Stoneacre Donny but (and I can’t quite believe I’m actually typing this ) I am going to suggest Mind That Fox to small stakes EW. Its time behind Mickleberry in September is comparable to any C&D form from anything else in the last six months so I shall be looking for decents odds on Betfair tomorrow. I might just do a combination exacta with Orchestration & Stoneacre Donny also.
Hi aaronizneez. Good luck with that one – very brave – will be watching with interest.
Ordinarily, I would have steamed into Orchestration and Stoneacre Donny, – both will be winning soon – but I don’t think they have the early poke to overcome those high draws.
I backed Orchestration last time in the face of a massive drift on the exchanges and he ran as the market expected. He’s better than that, but the draw is a huge obstacle; Peter Grayson in particular is of the opinion that you can’t win over 5f from the car park draws at Dunstall Park.
Wolver has been favouring the prominent racer most of the last few weeks and you need to be in the first three or four. The one catching my eye is old timer Prime Recreation who gets near-ideal conditions today.
He needs a long break then a pipeopener to clear the lungs; an easy lead, a fence to run against, 5f and Polytrack. He also loses his enthusiasm after two or three runs so this is his time of year. The Spotlight team are – as usual – unenthusiastic about the old warhorse, which will help the odds.
He ran very encouragingly when unfancied and unfit behind Gone N Dunnett last time in a fair Class 6 at Southwell and now drops to Banded company. In March last year, he followed this exact same pattern, (long break, encouraging Southwell run just out of the places) by finishing an unlucky second at 14/1 to a rare Annie Stokell winner here at Wolverhampton.
Although drawn high today, he demonstrated two years ago that he can overcome such an obstacle, in an April Class 7 at Kempton under Winston. He broke well, bounced out, smoothly drifted over to the rail and was never headed.
This is one of the worst Banded races imaginable and I cannot see this out of the first three. Currently 12/1.
Lets hope one of us is right. Any other views?
Cheers
Max
Max
A compelling case for Prime Recreation which makes my
"Prime Recreation is a light of his former self and would be surprised if he troubled these." look a little dismissive. As you say lets hope one of us is right.Should be working but currently having a look at Lingfield.
The 1.50 looks interesting. What Do You Know should get an uncontested lead and if fit could make them all go, however has been off the track for a while and with 4 C&D winners in the race will passover today. Of the 4 C&D winners , Quality Street has also been off a few months and usually needs a run before winning so that leaves Louphole, Benllech & No Time. Louphole apparently needs a good pace which he may get from WDYK but I’m not sure a small field will suit. No Time was behind Louphole last time but I fancy he may be able to reverse the form back at Lingfield where he has run his best races recently. The one I like the look though is Benllech who won in a fair time LTO beating some higher rated horses going away. If reproducing that form I think he will win well. No Time for the exacta.
Last one today, promise
Had a further look at Wolverhampton tonight at the 7.50
Rich Kid – 2nd in a claimer last time out after a short break (won off 65 at Leicester before) beaten a length at odds on. Struck over the face by rivals whip and not too bad an effort I think.
Bookish – Won a nursery LTO albeit in a modest time at Kempton. Wolverhampton a different kettle of fish although trainer has a decent strike rate at course but that will be reflected in its price.
Feeling Fresh – Won well over 6 furlongs at Wolves in Dec, but struggled a bit off 64 next time. Ran badly when tackling distances over 6f previously.
Moonlitesilhouette – Gradually improving Irish raider who was finishing well over 6F LTO. Wouldn’t rule out improvement over this extra furlong.
Bury Treasure – Not too much to show for three outings last year.
Yattendon – Ran well over 6F in early December before shocking performance over C&D LTO.
I would narrow it down to Rich Kid & Moonlitesilhouette with preference for the former who at least has a half decent run over C&D to its name with two of the horses behind it running creditably since.
Well, you were right, I was wrong. Someone knew…it reached 44 on Betfair which was just far too big.
And yet another favourite goes in on the AW. This happened last January too. The office parties must be having the time of their lives.
Max
I may have been right about Prime Recreation but as for the rest, hopeless. I am due to go to Wolverhampton next week but I notice the field sizes seem to be very small at present so I might not bother. Is it because of the work they’re doing to the surface do you think ?
Aaron, I personally believe that we’ve reached Peak Racing.
Ordinarily I’d be at Southwell this week, but it’s just shocking competition of no interest to me. Is it 14 successful favs out of the last 23?
In my uneducated opinion, there aren’t enough horses in training to make for competitive and interesting racing at the current fixture density. Also there appears to be insufficient liquidity in the ring on outsiders for it to be worthwhile for connections to set a horse up for a punt at a bigger price. These are the horses that I’ve always been interested in – and I’ve had a truly torrid time this past year.
You get this in the US with long meets, (Philly is the best example). A high favourites index and small fields spread thinly to last.
As you say, the Wolver surface isn’t as consistent and quick as it used to be – perhaps as a consequence of the remedial action they carried out last year after the spate of accidents.
Max
Are Wolverhampton currently treating the course with something to prevent it balling on the horses hooves when it gets near freezing temperatures. I think this is why they have missed a couple of Monday meetings recently. I just thought this may be the reason trainers were not using it as much at present. With regard to the previous work I have to say that since the surface has slowed down my success rate has gone up. Last night was the first time I have had a meaningful loss at Wolverhampton for quite a while.
I do agree with you with regard to the amount of AW racing at present with yesterdays 3 meetings a bit of a nonsense. I’m not sufficiently knowledgeable on the liquidity of the markets however I guess if there are only four or maybe five bookies there on course ( because of the small crowds ? ) there isn’t going to be the opportunity to win any substantial amounts and any prices are all too easily manipulated maybe ?
Don’t have time to write analysis with regard to tonight but even with the small fields I shall have a go with Fizzlephut, Dancing Deano & Marino Prince.
Last December and January, there was a debate about the safety of the Dunstall Park Polytrack surface after a couple of pile ups and the death of the smart Eccollo.
What was noticeable last year was that it was prepared to be the fastest surface of the four AW arenas. Was it too fast? Some people felt so -including the course executive.
Ever since last winter, I’ve noticed the track has slowed, but why or how I don’t know. It’s certainly difficult to make ground from behind. As you say, they are further experimenting with some form of anti-coagulant but what that is I’ll leave to the surface designers.
A maximum field size of seven tonight and a couple of five runner affairs. I’ll be doing something else, but good luck with your selections.
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