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The 3.00 at Southwell looks like a race to get the teeth into, particularly with the 3/1 fc fav Matuza looking opposable. The race at Lingfield was rather set up for him, coming fast off a strong pace and leading on the post over 6f, tactics that over 5f at Southwell are virtually impossible to pull off. Higher in the weights makes him vulnerable and the form of his cd win as a juvenile amounts to little.
Pawan just doesn’t win enough and is likely to struggle over this course and distance with his slow start. Anfield Dreram is a course and distance winner but looks likely to struggle from out of the weights, his form since a break pretty uninspiring too. Graze On looks on a high mark at present and cannot be trusted on current form. His stable is also struggling for winners at present, Peter Grayson hasn’t been in the winners enclosure since August and that is the reason for ruling out Stoneacre Lad who would otherwise have made some appeal, back down to a mark he can win off, drawn in 1 so his tendency to hang markedly left is less of a hindrance and at a track where his style of racing is ideal.
Zowington is unexposed at 5f but has to prove he handles the surface whilst Polish Emperor went the wrong way for Swinburn and doesn’t look ready to bounce back yet for connections judging by his start for them at Musselburgh.
The one that makes plenty of appeal is old timer Dancing Mystery who showed in the summer he retains plenty of ability and enthusiasm when taking advantage of much lower turf marks and he shaped last time at Lingfield as if still in good form, his make all tactics at Lingfield far harder to pull off than here. He’s well weighted on his form from January when he was placed over cd off a mark of 91. HIs record over course and distance is a more than respectable 173314118842. He makes plenty of appeal at around 5/1.
Southwell 3:00 5f – Arena Leisure Handicap (Class 3)
With the stalls place on the outside my progressive draw stats indicate that stalls 1-8 are the traps we need to concentrate on. Throw into the mix a requirement for early pace and at 9/2 on my tissue Dancing Mystery is a bet.. Draw in stall 5 and unlikely to get into a speed dual he can blast down the middle of the track and play catch me if you can..
If course conditions favour prominent runners then at a price I also like the look of Efistorm. From my review of the video form courtesy of ATR, he was given a “quiteâ€ÂÂ
Southwell 3.00 5f – Arena Leisure Handicap (Class 3)
I’ll run through the runners in racecard order….
1. Distinctly Game:
After a profitable 2-y-o season, he started his 3-y-o career on a very high mark of 103, proving difficult to place he didn’t trouble the judge. The handicapper has relented slightly this season after 2 runs where he finished last in both, both big fields. This represents a drop in class, but it is impossible to say what he’ll achieve after a break – only connections will have an idea. We’ll have to pass on him – knowing he could bounce back.
2. Zowington:
<br>This also represents a drop in grade and a couple of his runs this season put him right at the top for form selection. He has yet to prove himself on the fibresand however, and that would clearly have to be taken on trust. The fact that he can go on slow ground and he has won over a quick 5 furlongs adds a bit of confidence. He looks to be in good form recently, his 3rd at Haydock looking particuarly solid. He makes the short-list.
3. Graze On
This appears to be Graze On’s grade, maybe a little above what he may be capable of now. Recently changed stables and would need to bounce back to his best to win this. Place prospects, but IMO not a lot more.
4. Polish Emperor
Appears in decline and although gone to a decent stable his recent form makes him of very limited appeal here.
5. Stoneacre Lad
Habitually hangs left when coming off the bridle, but has a decent record and down to a mark he can win off. His draw in stall 1 could a hinderance, his position at the finish will entirely depend upon when he comes off the bridle. Unexposed on Southwells fibresand he could be a little better than his current mark, similarly he could be a little worse. He has to make the short-list.
6. Matuzu
Difficult to assess, it is possible he has come to himself and is set for a few wins on the all-weather. Todays conditions look against him though and I’m not prepared to put him on the short-list on the basis of a possibly misleading win over 6 furlongs at a completely different track last time out. WATCH HIM SLUICE UP NOW :biggrin:
7. Dancing Mystery
A grand servant for connections and still doing the business holding his form remarkably well. I’m sure the grade won’t bother him – and could lead these for most of the race. He appears on a fair mark and looks impossible given his usual race to be out of the first 3. Short-listed.
8. Efistorm
His recent form just isn’t good enough to trouble these and is paying the price for winning a weak event over CD by 5 lengths. Passed over.
9. Turn on the Style
Capable and looks feasibly weighted, may find things happening a little too quickly for him today – but can on occasions race close to the pace – his race will be decided early on. A possible outsider without being short-listed.
10. Pawan
Cannont win this.
11. Anfield Dream
Another who could be there or thereabouts on his best form. Completes a fascinating field.
<br>All in all a very tough race to call with several in with chances. It could turn out to a race with a few future winners in it. With that in mind a watching brief is suggested.
Looks interesting.
The two horses that worry me are Zowington and Stoneacre Lad. Zowington is in ‘my stable’. I backed him last year at over 100/1 when he won and have backed him like a fool ever since! His running style isn’t come from behind. The problem is he tends to miss the break badly. When he does he then runs deplorably. However, when he gets out on terms he runs crackers, as with his win at Epsom this year, and his 3rd at Haydock in a three way photo. He should be one for in-running backers, but over 5 furlongs by the time me and my laptop’s got our act together any price would have gone!
Stoneacre Lad, as has been said, can be expected to wander over to the far rail – if he doesn’t, or if that doesn’t necessarily prove a problem, he looks to have a great chance – so another suggestion that this race should best be played in-running.
That said, here’s my tissue – based essentially on Dancing Mystery getting away and gone.
Dancing Mystery 4/1<br>Matuza 9/2<br>Zowington 5/1<br>Stoneacre Lad 13/2<br>Graze on 11/1<br>Those the only 5 short-listed.
The 5s on offer Dancing Mystery is with betfred and I’ve never been able to get a bet on with them, so have had to take a shade under on betfair.
My bets: (6pts = 1% of my starting betting bank)<br>Dancing Mystery 4pts win at 9/2+<br>Zowington 4pts at 15/2<br>half pt rev fc
<br>
3:00 Southwell
This is an appealing looking handicap, with a handful of horses holding nice chances.
For me…
Zowington – not proven on the surface (relatives suggest it might act on it) and seems to prefer a bigger break between runs
Distinctly Game – stable form still wobbly at best and has been off for a long time, looking very out of form earlier this year
Polish Emperor – potentially badly drawn (rain occasionally speeds up this side though) but more importantly I agree that he has looked in decline for some time now. At some point Barker will probably get a tune out of him, but I doubt that will be today.
Turn On The Style – initially I scrubbed him off completely, but have revised this, with some hints at course form and two reasonable runs to suggest he may be ready to step up a bit now. Not necessarily the preferred stable runner though…
Stoneacre Lad – looks high in the weights and is possibly best on soft turf. Widely mentioned favourably but not value at 5/1 or thereabouts despite nice draw. Stable far from flying at present.
Matuza – pretty unexposed and won easily on his only course start. Might prefer an extra furlong, although he tends to track rather than come from miles back and this course is fine for grinders.
Graze On – will probably be better for his last outing, but another from the Grayson yard which is yet to hit top form. Probably not well handicapped but does race prominently and has a 1 from 1 course record.
Dancing Mystery – rising 13 but potentially well treated at present and loves this C&D. Hard to discount.
Efistorm – should be straighter for his last run which I agree looked like a bit of a prep. Has a good course record with 1 win and 3 places from 5 starts, and won by 5 lengths over C&D the last (only) time this jockey rode him. At around 16/1 looks very interesting.
Pawan – love this horse, but still have the feeling that he might potentially be improved by slightly stronger handling. Basically consistent and acts here, but would probably be better over an extra furlong and has had an awful lot of racing in the last 12 months (well over 30 runs with no extended break).
Anfield Dream – on a reasonable mark, acts here well (1 win and 1 2nd from 2 C&D runs) but has a relatively inexperienced jockey up. The stable is going well though and has to be considered, although the market appears to be taking his chance into account and the 20/1 RP tissue looks unlikely to be available.
Conclusion<br>EFISTORM looks to offer good value here in quite an open race with lots of slightly less obvious things in his favour.
I’ll be playing the following tenner…
EFISTORM £2.50 e.w.<br> <br>EFISTORM plus any of {Graze On, Turn On The Style, Anfield Dream, Matuza, Dancing Mystery} in 50p reversed exactas
(nb – will probably go for reversed f/c instead with Turn On The Style as they are from the same stable)[/colour]
Efistorm is another one I discarded on grounds of ability.
Judging from Monday’s race, and considering we’re supposed to be learning from each other, I think I’ll add to my portfolio with 1pt on him at 18/1!!
6.20  Kempton  7F
My shortlist here is:
Arctic Desert<br>First Approval<br>Valentino Swing<br>Torquemada
My Selection is the Kelleway/Holland combo Arctic Desert @ 9/1 and place possibilites for Torquemada if the price is right.
Any views on this one from the AW specialists ?
Well done to all the guys who selected Dancing Mystery – great analysis of the race and successful outcome:) <br>
:cool:
Now for educational purposes, can all who punted in the 3:30 post what was their key lesson from the race?
For me I tend to focus on All Weather form during race analysis and place less emphasis on class ceilings due to the chaotic nature of A/W racing.  Twice this week I have selected a horse that I thought was good enough to make a challenge but in retrospect on ability (and basic handicapping) the horse was not good enough to take the spoils even though the price was very tasty… ÂÂÂ
I’ve learnt my lesson Tooting and Sailing Shoes..
(Edited by slipperytoad at 5:47 pm on Nov. 15, 2006)
Congratulations to all Dancing Mystery punters… Great Analysis by everyone considered… Everyone who looked at the race gave Dancing Mystery a decent chance.
Onto the post-race analysis.
Stoneacre Lad – hung over to the far rail as expected and this effectively cancelled out his chance in the race – he ran an honest enough race and is worth a chance over the turning 6 furlongs here.
Efistorm – ran a decent race and is clearly suited by the straight 5 here at Southwell. A slight drop in grade and an easy lead should see him in the winners enclosure, can be considered unlucky to have gone up a significant amount for a 5 length win in a weak race earlier in the season.
Anfield Dream – Subject of good market support throughout the morning, he ran much better than his recent form back at what is clearly his favourite track. Ran into one with a bit more class today, and I get the feeling today was supposed to be the day – nevertheless, can clearly pick up a race of CD over the winter.
Matuza – The one IMO to take from the race – dropping back in trip he travelled well enough behind the leaders and with a clear run and slightly further would have won this. He looks a significant improver – and the ATR guys were impressed with physique for a 3-y-o, it does he appear he has come to himself and a expect to finish this all-weather winter much higher than his current rating. It is possible he may be kept for a turf campaign, if this is the case, he is one for the notebook.
Dancing Mystery
Had a decent draw and enough pace to avoid any of the dirty Southwell kickback – when the challenges came, he fought them off and held on for a deserved victory at very rewarding odds of 6/1 – IMO he couldn’t have be out the first 3 with his style of running. See above posts.
It looks likely he’ll continue to be campaigned over the winter. He’ll pick up plenty of prize money, Southwell’s straight 5, looks his ideal trip & AW track. As DJ points out in above posts, Lingfield just doesn’t suit his style of racing, and if running there IMO should be avoided.
Graze on
Back to form – probably on the right handicap mark at the moment – and will need a little restbite from the handicapper to visit the winners enclosure IMO.
The rest
The rest ran pretty poorly – and can be ignored if turning up over the same trip and track.
I don’t want to bull-up the race for no-reason – but I thought it could be race with future winners in it, and the race itself has confirmed that for me. Don’t be surprised if the 5 behind the winner all win a race over the winter.
Slippery Toad – AW racing at Southwell, as in America is IMO mainly class and speed related. The Polytrack is a different beast altogether and coming from behind is common place, IMO the form can be ripped up between the two.
(Edited by Sailing Shoes at 6:04 pm on Nov. 15, 2006)
Well done Dancing Mystery backers
Little Edward Won @ 7/2 (big on course drifter)
profit 5pts
Gave you 4 days notice too lol. I think i’ll quit while i’m miraculously ahead.:cool:
Well done FSL and great post race analysis Shoes. :cool:
I have already noted Efistorm to win a race dropped in grade. Thanks to you Shoes I’ll add the horses you have earmaked to my notebook
I’m a firm believer that post-race analysis is vital to future form assessments. Being able to take a race apart afterwards and make firm opinions based on that, is the way to understand form and how powerful it is.
Cheers for the compliment Slippery, I have no problems with sharing my opinions with like minds :)
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