Advice on staking

[onefurlongout]

Hi, Ive been developing a system for a while now and the strike rate is around 35%, admitedly the average price of all runners is around 2/1. What would be the best staking plan to use with this type of strike rate/odds. Or would I be better off working on improving on the selection process?

[Formath]

This plan will not turn a loss into profit so the method of selection must make a profit to level stakes.

Staking Plan
For the first period (a period may be a week, a month etc depends on the number of bets you have) the stake is 1 point on each selection.

Thereafter at the end of each period: –

Profit below 25 points the next stake is 2 points.
Profit 25 but less than > 50 the stake is 3 points.
50 > 100 = 4 points
100 > 150 = 5 points
150 > 200 = 6 points
200 > 300 = 8 points
300 > 400 = 10 points
Stakes then rise by 2 points per hundred point band.

Staking Example (remember the stake for the first period is 1 point)
Period——————Plan
Prof/Loss-Stake-Prof/Loss-Bank-Next Stake
+5_______1_____+5______5_____2
+12______2_____+12_____17____2
+20______2_____+20_____37____3
-6________3_____-6______31____3
+24______3_____+24_____55____4
+32______4_____+32_____87____4

I hope you will agree the above is simple to operate leaving you free to concentrate on selection.

[carlisle]

Hi outFurlongout

my view is….. "Don’t try and manufacture profits from a staking plan"

The selection process should always be KING.

I know that we both work around a shortlisting method, which is very logical and edges one towards a commonsense selection. This process of elmination works well.

If some sort of risk estimation can be built in, an appropriate stake could be given to the selection. Obviously you would want more on the better investment opportunities. Strength of bet should be governed by the relative risk/reward ratio.

Yes clever staking plans can maximise the amount of profit, but this is dangerous unless ones method is bomb proof and water tight. Even then I wouldn’t build my empire on a complicated staking plan.

My staking range is 5pt max back[/color:3lcqma0n] to 5pt max lay[/color:3lcqma0n]. With a few 1/4 & 1/2pts interests if deemed necessary.

cya mate
from
carlisle

[Wallace]

With a 35% strike rate and average odds of all selections around 2/1 you have a lot of work to do before considering what staking method to use. You need to start off with a much bigger margin to have a chance of returning a decent profit.

What is the average odds of the winners? I suspect this will be a lot closer to Evens.

Use Betfair SP rather than the official SP. Easily achievable to any stake and will outperform SP over time even allowing for commission on winners.

[dave jay]

You have a strike rate of 35% and your horses average price is 33% (2/1).

That means you have an edge of 2%. As Wallace says this isnt really a method that is likely to be very profitable in the longer term.

Formath’s plan looks good, so long as you keep stakes small and have fun.

[Artemis]

The truth about staking methods is simply put:

If you have a successful method of finding winners at odds better than your strike rate, you should adopt a ‘percentage of bank’ approach. This allows for growth, rather like compound interest, but also recognises that success in betting can be short-lived. The percentage of bank depends on the average odds of your selections. I would suggest:

Average odds Percentage of bank
evens to 15/8 20
2/1 to 11/4 15
3/1 to 9/2 10
5/1 to 9/1 5
10/1 + 3

In reality, the vast majority of punters, even those who are methodical, do very well to break even. In this case, staking methods will have a zero effect in the long run.

[Seagull]

On betting on sole favs in non handicap races up to 9 runners.
Doubling up the stake until a winner.

Since Jan 1st until 17th June there have been 170 days racing.
(No racing Good Friday)

The fav won the 1st race 90 times a 52.9% strike rate (opt 1)

The fav won the 1st or 2nd race 127 times a 74.4% strike rate.(opt 2)

The fav won the 1st, 2nd or 3rd race 146 times a 85.88% strike rate.(opt 3)

Is there any staking plan that would improve the profits on the 3rd option?

[Wallace]

Seagull, a lot of us were totally opposed to your friends method of doubling up on favorites and are probably still just waiting for the train crash to happen. However there many very well be other factors coming into play that we have not fully recognized. Since Betfair has become the biggest opinion poll for UK racing the markets are becoming a lot more efficient. As a result of this more fancied horses are probably winning than in previous years.

I don’t know the answer to your question but there must be a better method than doubling up.

What are the level stake returns from the 3 options listed?

[Artemis]

Seagull,

I think your non-handicap clear favourite approach has more merit than just supporting any favourite. The strike rates are consistent with average odds of around evens for such races. As Wallace says, the market is very efficient and while I doubt very much that punters have an edge in such races, there is probably not a lot in it for bookmakers.

Probabilty of 1st race winner = 50%
Probability of 1st or 2nd race winner = 75%
Probabilty of 1st,2nd or 3rd race winner = 87.5%

There is a much smaller chance of a losing run with your approach than that of Mark’s.

You can expect 8 consecutive losers on average once in every 250 sequences, 9 consecutive losers once every 500, and 10 consecutive losers once every 1,000. A sequence might have to cover 2 or 3 days racing to find 10 non handicap races with clear favourites, so it could be a good few years before the £5,120 loss devours the accumulated profits. Or, it could be tomorrow…..or the next day…..it will happen.

If you play the lottery long enough you are almost guaranteed to win it, but it might take tens of thousands of years and you would almost certainly end up out of pocket, unless you won it in the first few thousand years. This is because it’s basically a bad bet with a very low pay off compared to the true odds. By the same token, playing any system based on unnamed favourites will impoverish the backer over a very long period because it is basically a bad bet.

It bears repeating that there is no staking method in existence that can turn a bad bet into a good one.

[onefurlongout]

cheers for all the responses guys, Ive decided to scrap the system and look for something else. Regarding the staking plan Im hoping to just adopt a level stakes plan

My main focus is now going to be the races with the two highest prize money each day, with the remit that the best horses always win the best prizes.

Yes Carlisle my first port of call will be to narrow the field using a trends based method, followed by a VDW type approach to the remaining field. Its a work in progress starting today so hopefully it will see me right?!?

Today my selections are Double Banded (plate) and Hitchens in the 3.40 @ Windsor

[grand lodge]

onefurlongout,

I think staking plans are a case of "one man’s poison…", etc.

I like to know where I am with my betting and, therefore, work on a fixed and realistic return per race. That way the size of stake is determined by the SP. In other words, staking more on shorter price horses and less on longer priced ones to return the same amount – which makes sense if you look at the strike-rate of SP’s.

Furthermore, I would not invest more than 50% of my expected return so 2/1 would be the lowest price to go in at. That would probably rule this out for your system but I thought I would just throw my coin into the hat, so to speak.

[Author]

Posts