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Sorry for thread title….
Anyway, this is for those people who produce their own tissues. I am aware that for some this topic is irritating/annoying. However, hopefully the church at TRF is broad enough for us all to worship.
Pleasantries over…
I’m interested in a number of issues to start with.
1. When you produce your own tissue do you price to 100%? If so, how do you evauluate ‘value’? At present, my tissue is 80%. I start from the top down and see if prices are available etc.
2. When you create your market do you put in prices on what you think the horse <b>should</b> be, or on what you think <b>it will be</b>? For example, a fairly unexposed Nicholls’ hurdler making his handicap debut. Given the connections, the horse is likely to be shorter than if trained by N Richards, despite having a similar profile. I’m curious to know about how others approach this.
3. Once your market is created, how far down your list will you go? Let’s say, for example, in the novice chase tomorrow you think Alberta’s Run should be 7/4, but is available at 9/4. Well, you obviously back that one. But if you’ve got Battlecry at 4/1 and that’s availabe at 5, would you back that one as well? If both were backed to level stakes (just for demonstration purposes) then you’re taking odds of 8/13 here, are you happy to do that?
Look forward to your replies.
Good thread.
Haven’t been doing this in recent months, but the answers previously would have been:
Yes, I price to around 100%
I price a horse up as I think it should be, but that involves consideration of what I think the horse will be, as I am not so arrogant as to think that I will always be right and the market will always be wrong.
I will back and/or lay any horse if it varies from my assessment significantly.
A couple of points: it is better to have a range of prices rather than one price, imo, e.g 4/1 to 6/1, rather than 5/1. I tend to avoid races in which there are horses with wide ranges (B. Curley between 1/1 and 25/1 etc). The range includes my "margin of comfort" (difference between 4/1 and 5/1 is about 20% on a 100% book pro-rata). Pricing up races works much better in tandem with informed market-reading. Some races/markets can be approached with confidence, others (ahem) not.
Pricing up races works much better in tandem with informed market-reading.
Very well put. Compiling a tissue is only one half of the story.
Sorry for thread title….
Anyway, this is for those people who produce their own tissues. I am aware that for some this topic is irritating/annoying. However, hopefully the church at TRF is broad enough for us all to worship.
Pleasantries over…
I’m interested in a number of issues to start with.
1. When you produce your own tissue do you price to 100%? If so, how do you evauluate ‘value’? At present, my tissue is 80%. I start from the top down and see if prices are available etc.
2. When you create your market do you put in prices on what you think the horse should be, or on what you think it will be? For example, a fairly unexposed Nicholls’ hurdler making his handicap debut. Given the connections, the horse is likely to be shorter than if trained by N Richards, despite having a similar profile. I’m curious to know about how others approach this.
3. Once your market is created, how far down your list will you go? Let’s say, for example, in the novice chase tomorrow you think Alberta’s Run should be 7/4, but is available at 9/4. Well, you obviously back that one. But if you’ve got Battlecry at 4/1 and that’s availabe at 5, would you back that one as well? If both were backed to level stakes (just for demonstration purposes) then you’re taking odds of 8/13 here, are you happy to do that?
Look forward to your replies.
I work it out to 100% to what I believe the true chances are (what they should be). Will go in to how later on when I have more time. I know some people prefer working it out to less than 100% for a margin of error. But I like to do it to 100% and then only back each selection if more than say 3% over my estimate between 4/5 and 2/1, 2% between 85/40 and 6/1 and 1.5% 13/2 to 20/1 with 1% thereafter. Though these rules can be broken.
I do not (or seldom) work 100% tissues out for say ordinary novices. Prefering to look at the 5 year average rating for the winner of that race. And judge whether I believe it is an above or below average field. Then judge each horse from that. I never (may be once or twice a year) back one on debut. You can though look at the trainers record first time out with that type of horse, its conformation, breeding and flat form etc(still learning about that side of the game).
If I think two or more horses are value I will back all of them, usually the ones who are the best value are main bets (sometimes the ones with trainers in form) with may be half my normal stake or savers on the rest. So far have backed 8 horses for the National, to varying degrees, starting before the season commenced. It seldom goes to a combined price of odds on. Adding all my prices taken my average combined price taken is between 15/8 and 2/1 with an average price per horse of 13/2.Look foreward to hearing and learning from others on this thread.
P.S. Can we ban Reet, Flash and Fist from this one?
Value Is Everything1. When you produce your own tissue do you price to 100%? If so, how do you evauluate ‘value’? At present, my tissue is 80%. I start from the top down and see if prices are available etc.
Initially I price to 100% then add on Betfair base rate commission giving an over-broke book of approximately 96%. Value is evaluated simply by noting which of my prices suggest a greater chance than those available e.g my odds 5/2, 11/4 available.
2. When you create your market do you put in prices on what you think the horse should be, or on what you think it will be? For example, a fairly unexposed Nicholls’ hurdler making his handicap debut. Given the connections, the horse is likely to be shorter than if trained by N Richards, despite having a similar profile. I’m curious to know about how others approach this.
I price up what I think the market should be not what I think the market will be: that is the RP Forecast’s remit. I regard trainer trends and their methods as important input into chance evaluation hence to use your example of Nicholls and Richards I would award both of them more ‘points’ with their chasers than I would their hurdlers. The vast majority of my bets are in handicap chases contested by exposed horses, which nullifies to a large extent that dangerous beast ‘the unexposed horse’: I’m no good at evaluating them.
3. Once your market is created, how far down your list will you go? Let’s say, for example, in the novice chase tomorrow you think Alberta’s Run should be 7/4, but is available at 9/4. Well, you obviously back that one. But if you’ve got Battlecry at 4/1 and that’s availabe at 5, would you back that one as well? If both were backed to level stakes (just for demonstration purposes) then you’re taking odds of 8/13 here, are you happy to do that?
I do not bet anything I rate as having less than a 6/1 chance (14.3% to you Ginger T
) even if this is available at say 33/1. Simply because my records tell me I’ve shown a loss doing so.If both I and the market agree on the fav and I make it a 7/4 chance but is available at 9/4 I would bet that, and that only, in the race (an uncommon scenario in practice)
If I disagree with the market and make the 9/4 fav say a 3/1 chance it is likely there will be one, two or more ‘value’ alternatives on my tissue: I will back it, both or all to level stakes against the poor value fav. Your point about coupling the odds to ascertain combined chance is important. Prior to betting two or more horses I make a point of double-checking along the lines of "do I really believe it’s 8/13 one of these two winning"
If I assess a fav to be odds-on but no odds-against is available e.g Master Minded tomorrow, the race is a no bet which certainly doesn’t mean that I believe there to be no value backing odds-on, simply that it doesn’t suit me.
Though I’ve used traditional odds notation above, I should point out that all my tissues are compiled initially as % chance then converted into Betfair Decimals, as Big Blue handle virtually all my bets nowadays.
Hope that is of some interest.
I take a different view, all together.
I prefer to make a shortlist of a certain number of runners in the race, say around half of them. I then create a 70% book around the shortlist and take it from there.
The prices I make are solely my own opinions, I’m not interested in what the market might be based on Trainers, Jockeys, hype, etc.
Some interesting variations on a theme here.
Do any of the experts think that betfair provides the most accurate and efficient market available?
The betting market (SP or Betfair) is very efficient indeed because of the widespread availability of information and the freedom to buy(back) or sell(lay) outcomes in a sporting contest.
Therefore, I would contend that anyone who tries to ignore this market and stick to their own opinion is choosing to disregard a valuable resource in their quest for profit.
The market can be wrong on occasions, but overall it does send out strong signals about a horse’s chances in a race. If I make a tissue, I usually adjust it to reflect how the market is moving and try to do this in real time as the market develops. Those people who use models to prepare tissues will almost certainly build in a real-time market correction factor to recalculate their tissue before placing a bet.
I agree, the market is almost always right and if I have a price that is wildly different, then I always assume that its me that has got it wrong not the other way around.
First of all, I’m delighted with the responses, so thanks for all contributions.
On the efficiency of the market (particularly Betfair) I’ve got another issue. Traditional markets, prior to exchanges, obviously weren’t as flexible or as volatile, but there’s another difference.
With the ability to back and lay now open to all, and the use of software programmes becoming increasingly prevalent, do exchange prices reflect accurately the chances of a horse winning a race or do they merely reflect movements of money?
I’m curious about all this. Obviously, we’ve always had market movers and people following money. However, I have a feeling that exchange markets have a significant amount of money coming from people ‘playing’ with programmes. If these people are able to shift markets, others follow, prices drift or contract, smaller punters jump on…. resulting in significant fluctuations in price based on … well, what exactly? It seems unlikely that the price change is reflective of a horse’s chance of winning the race.
In Nevison’s book he talks about the Betfair market being driven by some of the sharpest brains in the business. I often wonder whether these sharp brains are very adept at playing markets rather than assessing the chances of horses winning races. There’s also evidence in one of the Betfair ‘How to’ guides about horses drifting on the exchanges being more pofitable to follow than those well-supported.
Anyway, continue with the comments folks, all welcome!
When the market gives a price vastly different to mine, I may look back to see if I have missed something. But do not take too long, otherwise the price will have gone. If you think you are a good judge of prices, there will be other good judges that will take that price, so get on quick. A price 10% bigger than my tissue is very rare. I think if anyone gets a tissue consistantly different to that extent they might be doing something wrong.
If you permit the aftertiming.
My biggest bet was on Rooster Booster for the Champion.
Saw it win the Greatwood under a big weight easily. Thought it must have a 20% 4/1 chance now for the Champion. Yet Stan James went 12/1, there was no point checking, I would not be that wrong so had a big bet (for me). Then a few days later, Timeform Perspective said the performance was good enough to win three of the last four Champions so went in again at 8/1.Ginge
Value Is EverythingGinge
I’m rather intrigued with your margins particularly on the longer priced animals would not seem to nearly enough bearing in mind that a large proportion of the over round goes into the bigger prices and whereas at the front end winners are delivered regularly at a proportion just below what the price would indicate-this is the over round- once your start getting above say 7/1 the relationship starts to dip below expections and therefore a bigger safety margin is needed. I believe that methods of this sort really only have much chance of working at the front end of the market.
Personally my way of working differs in as much as I have a number of methods to pin point winning opportunities for which I have extensive stats going back many years. From these stats I can work the percentage chance of winning and therefore the price betting opportunities arise when I can better this price by what’s on offer.These mainly but by no means exclusively occur at the front end of betting I do however not stray into odds on, not because value can’t occur there it just for me a matter of risk and reward that I don’t feel comfortable with. If I may be allowed an after time example Desiderio 8.50 Kemp yesterday my stats said had a 50% (Evens) chance of winning, 5/2 was on offer in the morning which I jumped at, on what was returned 5/4 (sorry I won’t do it again)GRAND NATIONAL ANALYSIS
with my estimated percentage chance, price to beat and my “bookies priceâ€Value Is EverythingGingerTipster,
Congratuations on your effort in supplying us with this.In other threads you have been asked to show your hand and you have indeed declared same with one of the more difficult events to do so.
However, isn’t there alwaysa however, I can’t see how you can visualise horse A winning one in 801 runnings and Horse B winning once in 1001 runnings, I don’t know how you can do that. I’m not being negative, just actually intrigued by your powers.
Regards,
LlanrumneyBoy
) even if this is available at say 33/1. Simply because my records tell me I’ve shown a loss doing so.
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