A Serious System

[dave jay]

I’ve just started recording this system so I thought I may as well do it here.

Rules;<br>

• <br>
• Use The Mirror<br>
• Selection must be (SF) Strongly Fancied<br>
• Selection must not be Forecast Favourite.<br>

<br>I will be pushed for time over the next month but I’ll keep this up to date weekly and see how it goes.

The records will be kept as follows:

Meeting-Time/Horse No/No.Run/F-SP/Race/Result

I’ll put up horse names when I get more selective, ok?

SR=<br>LSP=

[dave jay]

27/12/02<br>Meeting-Time/Horse No/No.Run /F-SP  /  Race    /Result <br>12.20 So      /      4      /     11   / 10-1 / HCP-E    / L<br>1.55  So      /      15     /     16   / 12-1 / MAI-D     / L<br>2.30  So      /      8      /     10   /  8-1   / HCP-D    / P6/1<br>3.50 Chep   /      1      /     7     /  5-1 / HCP-D   / W9/2<br>12.45 Ke      /      9      /     17   /  3-1 /   NOV-C   / P10/3<br>1.50 Ke        /       7     /     14   /  6-1  /  HCP-C   / P11/2<br>3.25  Ke       /       1     /       8   / 4-1   /  HCP-C   / P5/1  

28/12/02<br>Meeting-Time/Horse No/No.Run /F-SP  /  Race    /Result <br>12.55 N      /      1      /     6   /  2-1 / HCP-E    / L<br>1.55 N      /      3      /      4   /  2-1 / NOV-D    / W2/1<br>2.30 N      /      1      /     10   /  5-1 / HCP-D    / W3/1<br>1.10 M      /      7      /      8   / 12-1 / NOV-D    / L<br>1.40 M      /      7      /     14   /  7-1 / HCP-C    / L<br>2.15 M      /      3      /     8    /  10-1 / HCP-D    / W12/1<br>12.00 L     /      7      /     12   /  6-1 / MAI-D    / W5/1<br>12.30 L     /      1      /     14  /  6-1  / HCP-F    / P4/1<br>1.00 L      /      4      /     12  /  6-1  / MAI-D    / W11/4<br>3.10 L      /      9      /     16  /  13-2  / MAI-D    / L<br>12.50 H    /      6      /     11  /  9-2  / HCP-E    / W4/1<br>2.25 H     /      1      /     5   /  3-1  / HCP-D    / P3/1<br>3.00 H     /      1      /     7   /  7-2  / HCP-D    / W3/1<br>2.25 T     /      4      /     14   /  13-2  / HCP-F    / L<br>3.35 T     /      1      /     5   /  5-2  / HCP-D    / L

SR = 8/22 = 36%<br>LSP = +22.25

(Edited by dave jay at 8:06 pm on Dec. 28, 2002)

[steve layden]

Hi Dave – The Daily Mirror SF horses are a rich selection source.
In the past I have backed the SF horses that were forecast favourites.
In the last two days (27 & 28 Dec) this would have selected 19 winners out of 36 horses (about 53%).
There would have been a 7 points profit (20%)

If you include only horses that were 1st or 2nd last time out, you then have 18 winners out of 29 (62%), with 12 points profit (44%).

The most interesting approach, however, is that if you confine yourself to handicap races the results are as follows:
11 selections… 5 winners at 4/1, 2/1,2/1,2/1,6/4 giving
a strike rate of 45% and 7.5 points profit (68%).

The rules for this approach would be:
Daily Mirror
SF
Forecast favourite
1st or 2nd last time out
Handicaps only

It might be interesting to use the two approaches of favs and non favs with suitable staking plans to make the very most of this very effective SF source.

Best wishes
Steve

[dave jay]

Thanks for the input Steve and hello.

I ran a system earlier on this year using (SF) <br>Clear Forecast Favourite<br>Endorsed by Form Spot

The system works well and is on here somewhere. This also works well if the selection was also a Beaten Favourite (BF), that eliminates alot of the odds-on shots. I’ve quite alot of records for that system.

I’m just going to se how this works out, because I’ve not tried this before but I’ve noted your pointers. The only problem I see with this is that; there’s an (SF) horse in every race. I’ll have to come up with a better way of putting them up here, it’s all a bit messy!

[dave jay]

Up-date Results for system to 3/1/03:

Selections: 74<br>Win: 14<br>SR: 19%<br>LSP: +5.75

I’m going to think about putting some filters in place once I get to 100 bets. There’s quite alot of dross in the selections and bad races.

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