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A question for the form followers on here regarding Wells Gold.
The horse has generally been unfancied in its previous runs, also generally finishing tailed off.
Today it shows an apparent marked improvement to win , whilst well fancied.
Can anyone explain this to me ?It’s just the incredible stable form. Prior to that Fontwell race they had 7 or 8 winners from their last 28 runners plus a few 2nds and 3rds. You could ask the same questions about other winners from the stable as well. But this is their time of the year…..
Incredible. It’s not like there was any significant break, new headgear or obvious angle to explain the improvement.
Only a few weeks since it was absolutely tanked too.
It was 25/1 this morning but went off at 3s !
Perhaps it’s a little more than the stable being in good form.Can anyone explain this to me ?
Yes, some people in racing are bent as a five bob note.
I was at Fontwell and couldn’t believe it when I looked at the boards before the race and saw 3/1 all over the shot and I can tell you there was plenty of shouting as it crossed the line so evidently quite a few were on. After it won a chap next to us at the parade ring told me it was 20/1 earlier on and that he watched the race standing next to chaps who went mad at the finish.
I think connections had it well away there and to be honest gave us lot who were out of the know absolutely no chance. It does leave a bit of a nasty taste in the mouth but that’s really only because we didn’t know. If we did, we’d have lumped on and just shrug our shoulders at those who complained about the unfairness of it all.
Just written a long explanation and “database error”.
Shorter assessment:
Wells Gold had had only five starts previously and “not knocked about” a time or two. Handicapper took a chance with dropping him 12 lbs in just two starts. So not sure there was “remarkable improvement”; although it’s true came on a lot for reappearance (first time cheek pieces).
If a horse doesn’t take to cheek pieces he’s likely to be right out the back even if there’s some ability the horse won’t show it. Possibly took much better to the cheek pieces this second time and connections/those in the know knew he was now going well in them at home?
Had Wells Gold been weighted on his original 95 (not this 83) would’ve been well beaten. Probably given that original mark due to showing at least some ability in winning an Irish Point. So to be more excat it’s probably more a return to form plus a smallish amount of improvement on his best hurdle form.
With only one front runner in the field – and he’d gone slow on his latest start – and had never run well before on reappearance… This always likely to be slowly run and with such conditions likely to be against the hold up favourite. May be those in this gamble saw a flaw in the favourite?
It wasn’t just the winner with little to go on in this particular race. When there’s very few with any sort of recent form; only one winner in the field and not many recent placed efforts either… It’s a race a horse that’s shown little in the past can show only a smallish amount of improvement – and win. A case of “punters beware” in crap races like this. Poor quality handicaps of this nature are suseptible to a betting coup. Although the fact poor races attract less money gambled overall means the percentage of money seen for the horse is comparitively high… Taking less money to move a 20/1 shot in to 3/1 than in any other type of race.
Value Is EverythingSympathise with you there Ginger regarding the ‘database error’
That happened to me a couple of times this week when I was updating my competition. 
Now I copy my work every couple of paragraphs and then at the end before I press SubmitNo idea why it keeps happening but you have to come out and log back in again and of course all your hard work has been wiped out..
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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