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Hi All,
Long time reader but decided to join up!
I have a question based on the weights in handicap races. I potentially have a red hot tip for Friday, because I part own the horse with Middleham Park Racing.
My horse (Captain Kolo) runs in the 5.40 at Newcastle on Friday. It’s a Class 5 handicap and he’s rated 70. He’s been dropping down the handicap because he is extremely reliant on soft ground, just doesnt perform on anything quicker. Tim Easterby feels he’s very well handicapped for when the rain comes and as you can see, its out in force at the moment!
The course, distance, ground are all in his favour. The opposition, are donkeys I have to say. The next highest rated is 54. None of them have any sort of form whereas Kolo has placed in some hot handicaps on Good ground in higher grades, any softer and he’d have won them.
My question is. He is rated 70, the next highest is 54. Thats 16lb he’s giving a way in a 5f soft ground sprint. I’m trying to understand how much an affect that will be. From my mediocre knowledge is defying a 16lb pull is an extremely difficult task. There’s no doubt he’s by far the better horse and if it wasnt a handicap he’d win by a racecourse. People im talking to are saying they are rated so low because they are bad horses, which is right, and that at the forecast odds (7/1) its a an opportunity on the betting front. The race is man against boys, no doubt whatsoever, but the weight concerns me.
What do you all think, can 16lb be defied in a handicap?!
I had a winner with my other horse Another Citizen yesterday, he runs again on Tuesday under a penalty. He’s bang in form if anyone fancies an investment.
Cheers all.
Mark.
I just had a look at my ratings and took the best two recent ratings for each horse and
Captain Kolo
is
14lbs+
, he also has the top two ratings in the race.
Forecast odds of 7/1?
More like 9/4
Captain Kolo 23-May-11 Thi 6Gd C43yHc 4K
74
Captain Kolo 09-Jul-11 Chs 6Gd C43yHc 5K
62
Ever Roses 18-Jun-11 Red 5Sft C63yHc 1K
60
Cool In The shade 23-May-11 Crl 7GS C63yHc 1K
59
Cool In The shade 30-Jul-11 Thi 6Gd C6Hc 2K
57
Majestic Melody 06-Aug-11 Ayr 5Gd C63yHc 1K
56
Mini Bon Bon 13-Jan-11 Sth 5St C63yHc 1K
55
Bygones For Coins 21-May-11 Chs 6Gd C43yMd 5K
51
Ever Roses 08-Feb-11 Sth 6St C5Md 1K
47
Mini Bon Bon 28-Jan-11 Lin 5St C63yHc 1K
47
Bygones For Coins 28-May-11 Cat 6Gd C6Md 2K
46
Majestic Melody 18-Jul-11 Ayr 6GS C63yHc 2K
31
Thanks.
The forecast is the ATR website. I’d be amazed to see them odds.
The question im asking though, is can a horse defy giving away 14lb in a soft ground 5f sprint.
Is it a case of, "Yes, if he’s good enough" or is it more "He’d have to be something special to defy that weight difference".
Just trying to see how good a chance he has of winning.
The latest run off 70 is by far the best in some time and its turn will come again but i have a few reservations about backing it on friday.
1/ i get the feeling might be better over 6f, 2/ the fact that its 2 worst runs this year have been with the description soft in the ground , 3/ personally i think it will find giving 19lb till myjestic melody a little too much.
I have been known to be wrong tho
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The first race at Lingfield on Saturday saw the second lowest rated horse win against some 70 rated. The whole night was a joke but it stuck in my mind.
It brought home to me how insultingly perverse this game is really.
Hi Mark
Your fella was dropped by the official handicapper from a mark of 70 to 67 on Tuesday reflecting the handicapper’s opinion of his last run. Unfortunately, he still has to run off his old mark of 70 because the mark given for the race is the mark he had at the confirmed entries stage.
Conversely, Myjestic Melody was raised 3lb by the handicapper on Tuesday from a mark of 51 to 54 but, again, it’s the old rating that counts tomorrow.
What this means is that the weight difference between your horse and Myjestic Melody is 6lbs greater than if both horses were allowed to run off their current handicap marks tomorrow.
In theory, that gives Myjestic Melody quite an advantage.
Obviously these things don’t work out exactly on the day as other factors come into play. The ground, as you have mentioned, can be critical.
It does look like a stiff 5f may be right up Myjestic Melody’s street however having just failed to get up at Ayr last time.
Having said all of that, the very best of luck for tomorrow!
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