A Day at the Races

[Formath]

On a day out at the races as a social occasion can you follow ‘informed opinion’ and come out ahead?

I am behind time today so more detailed explanation to follow along with the reat of the card. The main factor is trying to bet on runners with some chance at profitable odds.

Lingfield 12.00 (Listed in order of expert merit and priced to Sporting Life forecast ‘fair odds’- select from these)

Wunder Strike 11/2 (9/2 Won)
Inqisitress 7/1
Achromatic 10/1 (4th)
Ymir 20/1 (6/1 2nd)
Red Current 10/1 (10/1 3rd)
Ardent Prince 13/1

[Formath]

Selections – I won’t publish my ‘informed’ source at present (but if anyone really wants to know they can PM me ).
Odds – The ‘fair’ odds are calculated from the Sporting Life betting forecast with the layers increment stripped out. You have to decide whether the actual market odds are viable.
Staking – Purely personal and I wouldn’t presume.

Lingfield 12.30

Nave 11/1 (9/2 2nd)
Diam Queen 3/1 (7/2 Won)
If I Were A Boy 12/1 (5/1 3rd)
Miss Starlight 13/2

[Formath]

Lingfield 1.00

Royal Box 15/2
Chocolate Cookie 8/1 (5/1 Won)
Ramamara 7/2
Tamarand Hill 14/1

1.30
Jarrow 11/10 (2/5 Won)
She’s My Rock 25/1
Picnic Party 7/2 (11/4 2nd)

2.00
Ravi River 8/1
King’s Colour 13/2 (11/2 Won)
Autumn Blades 5/1 4/1 3rd)

2.30
Marjury Daw 7/1
Copper King 15/1
Tallest Peak 10/1
Party In The park 10/1
Spinning Ridge 7/1 (8/1 2nd)
Vanadium 10/1
Diane’s Choice 15/1
Fitzolini 9/1

3.00
Royaaty 7/4 (5/2 Won)
Troopingthecolour 5/2 8/15 2nd)

3.30
Moonshine Creek 8/1 (4/1 Won)
Director’s Chair 25/1
Ardmaddy 11/2
Extremely So 10/1 (9/1 2nd)
Smooth As Silk 6/1
Venir Rouge 13/1
Debdene Bank 13/2 (6/1 3rd)

[billion]

Good luck to you

Formath

, it looks as if you are on to something good.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

billion,
Thanks a billion , although one day does not a season make. Thought I would try Huntingdon today as the going looks a little better. So, selections listed in order of merit, SL f/c odds with RP f/c overround stripped out to give ‘fair’ odds, stake as you feel you must.

Huntingdon
12.40
Reland 12/1
Lap Of Honour 17/2
Sereth 7/4
Sir Punjabi 12/1
Points Of View 10/1
Wester Ross 4/1

[Formath]

Huntingdon
1.10
Tutto Bene 28/1
Wizard Of Odds 9/4
Cheshire Prince 7/2
Ashammar 11/4
Savaronola 11/1
Argentis 60/1
1.40
Laureate Des Loges 13/1
Mount Helicon 5/2
Murphy 17/2
Viable 13/1
Owen’s Sedge 16/1
2.10
Dave’s Dream 4/7
2.40
Orfeo Conti 4/1
Good Harvest 6/1
Paradise Regained 9/1
Seize 9/1
3.10
Canni Thinkaar 21/20
Command Marshal 8/1
Wujood 16/1
Mistress To No One 7/1
3.40
The Laodicean 13/2
Acquisitive 9/1
Rumpy Corleone 5/1
Behindclosedoors 9/1
Dark Primrose 33/1
Mr Tallyman 5/1

[Formath]

Where are we going with this , it’s more systmatic than system . I am still looking to confirm possibles from my ‘informed’ source. As to prices, for the first 3 races today I have taken Massey owing to the lack of collateral form, for the handicaps I have used the Daily Mail Formcast ratings. This is an attempt to get to realistic viable betting odds rather than a complete advantage by perceived value. It makes sense to me and it’s only my take on what can be seen as informed opinion – hopefully :

Ascot
12.55
Red Harbour 6/1
Proud Presence 8/1
1.30
Awesome George 85/40
Zemsky 10/3
Prince Taime 9/1
2.05
Manyriverstocross 7/2
Vino Griego 17/2
2.40
Haar 7/2
Royal Wedding 5/1
Soulard 5/1
Double Dizzy 11/1
Commemoration Day 22/1
3.15
Any Currency 9/2
Bowleaze 7/1
Briery Fox 7/1
Hopkins 17/2
Pretty Star 11/1
Fairoak lad 50/1
3.50
Zabeel Palace 11/2
Pascha Bere 17/2
Secret Tune 10/1
Oldrik 11/1
Mutual Friend 18/1

[Formath]

Had a little time left today , so here is something for comparison with my previuos effort. I think what I am trying to say is that if you follow information stick to the same source as they all come out different. In this case I have priced up the inform site trainer/jockey/horse stats in the first three race at Ascot. Perhaps it’s possible to follow the money by using ‘my’ odds as the tissue and getting on if runners are being backed down?

Ascot
12.55
Red Harbour 7/2
Proud Presence 11/2
Wembley Way 13/2
Ballybach 15/2
1.30
Zemsky 11/4
Prince Taime 3/1
Theoprastus 5/1
2.05
Manyriverstocross 4/1
Inventor 9/2
Vino Griego 11/2

[Formath]

I am sticking with Ascot today because of the going conditions. Selections in order of merit from a pro-informed source, prices are RP f/c best odds with their f/c overround stripped out. For comparison alongside the racetime are listed the inform site top three trainer/jockey/horse combo cloth numbers:

Ascot
12.20 (10, 2, 5)
Possol 11/4
Arkrose 11/2
Qianshan leader 13/1
12.55 (7, 9, 2)
Skipper’s Lad 7/1
River Ripples 7/1
Pure genius 15/2
1.30 (2, 8, 4)
Ravello bay 9/4
Speed Bonnie Boat 25/1
Dove dale 28/1
2.05 (7, 2, 5)
Master Medic 10/3
Fix The Rib 4/1
2.25 (6,3,1)
Zayhar 85/40
Karabak 7/2
Time For Rupert 20/1
3.10 (2, 9, 5)
Voy Por Ustedes 3/1
Monet’s Garden 7/1
Planet Of Sound 11/2
3.45 (2, 8, 4)
Lush Life 7/4
Any The Wiser 15/2

[Formath]

I was going to post earlier but got called for my Sunday lunch. Had to leave off otherwise it would have been dinner in the dog. Post the 12.35 Ascot and then come back:

The Sawyer,Frankie Figg, Craiglands
(Massey – Craiglands, Paj Jack, The Sawyer)

[Formath]

I am getting away from my original system premise of following a pundit during a day at the races – but it is my ball . My idea today was to explore whether it would be just as good following your own selections mine would be by overall form, recent form and the market. Take say the top few RPR, last run and RP best odds and put them in some order of merit (using Massey for comnparison):

12.05 Sitting Tennant, High Ambition
(Massey – Overturn, Sitting Tennant, High Ambition)

1.10 Wendel, Dancing Dik, Shatabdi
(Massey – Dancing Dik, Shatabdi, Arctic Wings)

[Formath]

Aintree
1.45 Vic Venture, Hello Bud, Keenan’s Future
(Massey – Keenan’s Future, Idle Talk, Royal Rosa)

2.20 Fourty Aces, Top Dressing
(Massey – Fourty Aces, Top Dressing, Darna’s Boy)

2.55 Shadow Dancer, Natural Action, Paddy Live
(Turtle Spirit, Rookery Rebel, Solway Ally)

[billion]

Just like you

Formath

I was pleased to see Vic Venturi win especially after taking an early 100/30 price, thank goodness for "Best Odds Guaranteed"

Wendel did me no favours but had the double with Sitting Tennant . . . .

happy days!

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Managed my timing somewhat better today. I have mainly taken Daily Mail Formcast as my informed source today adjusted where possible by last race and the betting forecast. Odds are shown as ‘fair’ prices with the forecast overround stripped out. Hopefully a reasonable strike-rate will be achieved in view of the fact that many of the available odds don’t appear all that viable. (Massey top 3 in brackets for comparison).

Kempton
12.20
Aohna 5/1, On Borrowed Wings 7/2, Candy Creek 6/4
(8,1,2)
12.50
You’re The Top 15/8, I Have Dreamed 5/1, Kanad 7/1
(4,6,1)
1.25
Amber Brook 10/3, Whiteoak 13/8, My Petra 11/2
(3,7,4)
2.00
Cast Cada 9/2, Khachaturian 5/2, Dover’s Hill 17/2
(6,5,4)
2.35
Bob ‘N’ You 11/4, Nemetan 10/1, Sashenka 5/1
(10,2,9)
3.10
Fit To Drive 11/4, Oracle Des Mottes 9/2, Supreme Duke 7/2
(3,5,1)
3.40
Calzaghe 10/3, Karasakal 7/1, Classical Rhythm 10/1
(1,2,12)

[billion]

First of all let us both agree that I am a bit on the thick side

Formath

because although I am not sure what you are doing with this, may I ask if you are happy with the way it is going?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

billion,
It is more or less turning out as I expected, that is if you go for a social day out at the races forget about ‘value’ and try for a high strike rate at shorter odds – not that I would consider anything shorter than 6/4 myself. It doesn’t really matter whether you select them yourself or follow a tipster or the market. Any way I am going to suspend the thread after today as it is getting boring .

Lingfield (Massey top 3 in brackets for comparison)
12.40 (4,2,6)
Babe Heffron 13/8, Sebastiano 6/1, Suntini 4/1
1.10 (7,6,3)
Megasue 9/4, Dot’s Delight 6/1,La Sarrazine 7/2
1.40 (5,1,2)
Sunnyhillboy 15/8, Back Among Friends 11/2, Enfant De Lune 10/3
2.10 (7,4,3)
General Kutuzov 9/4, Stoney’s Treasure 8/1, Have You Seen me 11/2
2.40 (9,7,6)
Dusk 4/1, Portrait Royale 10/3, Royal Kicks 8/1
3.10 (3,2,5)
Spear Thistle 6/4, Elk Trail 9/2, Rileyev 9/2
3.40 (2,6,10)
Behindcloseddoors 5/1, Sir John 7/2, Keckerrockernixes 7/1

[Formath]

Will time and trainer show the way today at Southwell?

12.30 Anquetta
1.00 Benartic
1.30 Reverend Green, Midnight Opera
2.05 Inner Steel
2.40 Line Freedom
3.15 Salto Angel
3.50 Wallace Monument

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