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I see Paul Nicholls has been bigging up Turko’s chances in the big race, but apart from purely a handicapping view (he will never be so well in again), is it really wise to run such a young horse in such a gruelling race?
I’s still quite bemused by it; even if he won some really good races for the next couple of years he still wouldn’t carry an awful lot more weight than he is on Saturday…I just don’t think he’ll be physically mature enough as a six year old; as I say, I’m confused – but then I’m not the best nh trainer in the country!
To date, sixteen 6 year olds have won the Grand National, although the last one to do so was in 1915. A horse called Ally Sloper.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Scottish National a good race for novices but up and coming young [ish] horses with a low weight…even then not many 6 year old’s have won; Earth Summit was quite young, but he was an exceptional ‘National’ horse. They also need a mental maturity for the Grand National.
As I think has been said previously on the Forum, PN probably doesn’t have much regard for stats (such as 5 year olds in the Champion Chase)!
Also, as MP rightly pointed out, French breds do mature (and peak) earlier. (Although there is the French bred National stat to overcome there as well.)
It is worth noting that the horse doesn’t know that he is a French six-year-old, and doesn’t have recourse to the Racing Post or formbook.
I think his form entitles him to a big chance, but I won’t be backing a horse with as much weight, even with the weights being ‘compressed’. As to whether he should run or not based on the stats/his maturity – if Mr Stewart wants him to, and PN thinks he’s got a chance, then why not? It’s not as if he’s a no-hoper running in the colours of F. Wilson!
Complete waste of time running him, IMHO- the stats don’t lie: look at the other persistent offender MC Pipe, none of his youngsters got very far in the race. It’s a combination of lack of experience and maturity that finds them out and yes, I’d say it does leave a mental scar on them and is prejudicial to their future career. Nicholls has a bit of the Pipe ruthlessness in him, I think….
Turko – a French bred (last winner 1909), six year old (one finisher from 25 six and seven year old runners since 1992), trained by Paul Nicholls (one runner up from 37 runners), carrying 11st 10lbs (no winner over 11-5 since Red Rum).
I mean you’d have to believe in fairy tales to back him – next thing you’ll be telling me Barnsley and Cardiff are going to be in the FA Cup semi finals!
AP
And that a 5yr old can win a champion chase and there are two horses in the UK rated higher than Kauto Star!!!
Or that Newcastle would beat Spurs 4-1 on Sunday!!!! Come on the Geordies!!!!
Come on the Geordies indeed – Haway the lads!
King Kev working his magic at last.
Turko won’t win, but don’t buy the ‘mental scar’ stuff. He’ll run until he’s tired and then stop, unless he’s in with a chance at the time – where’s the harm in that?. He could have the sh!t scared out of him by the size of the fences, but I’m sure he’ll have been schooled over something similar at home…
I would make it 8 year olds and above.
Anything younger just hasnt matured physically for a race like the national,for some horses they will run there once and never be the same horse again.
Ide be inclined to run a horse later in his career at Aintree
Just my opinion
Not sure if physical maturity plays a part or not, but few 6 year olds that run in the National have much experience of jumping fences at high speed in large fields, which probably accounts for why few of them complete.
I must admit it surprises me that a man of PN’s standing would do this.
Then again he did just win the QMCC witha 5 year old.
People have said horses have got faster sice the 60’s or whatever because of better training etc.That of course is BS but where horses may be benefitiing is they could be stronger younger….I really don’t know but seems wrong to me to put a 6 year old in a race like the national.
I agree with the two above posters – I don’t think 6 year olds have had enough experience – didn’t the Pipe’s loose a good young horse – Eudipe a few years back? Would like to see 8 be the mimimum age …
just checked up and Eudipe was actually 7 and fell at Bechers 2nd time in Bobby Jo’s 1999 National. Another Pipe 6 year old (Tamarindo) in the same race fell at Bechers 1st time and never raced again.Kifill-ive been lucky enough to be involved with racehorses when i was younger.
They are just not ready for the rigours of a race like the national.
Then again PN has trained loads of winners ive won a few flapping races..you decide!
Not sure if physical maturity plays a part or not, but few 6 year olds that run in the National have much experience of jumping fences at high speed in large fields, which probably accounts for why few of them complete.
On the other hand, I’m actually a little surprised that those chasers in general – including 6yos – that started their careers in France haven’t made a slightly better mark in the National than they have to date, though maybe the sample of such horses isn’t quite big enough yet to draw any bombproof conclusions.
In so far as the likes of Auteuil are flattish courses containing a variety of fences (in several instances foreboding ones), might there even be a case for saying Aintree suits them better than Cheltenham’s undulations?
Further input welcome on either thought.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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