- This topic has 25 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
How faster in secs per mile is a mature horse compared to a 2yo horse and how do you calculate it?
I can’t give you a time difference but I can give you a weight difference.
In the first half of August 2yos would receive 23lb from a 3yo and 26lb from an older horse over 5 furlongs.
At the same time of year 2yos would receive 24lb from a 3yo and 28lb from an older horse over 6 furlongs.
At the same time of year 2yos would receive 26lb from a 3yo and 32lb from an older horse over 7 furlongs.
As time goes on these differentials become less until, for example, 3yos stop getting allowances from mature horses on 1st October over 5 furlongs and on 1st December over 7 furlongs.
Thanks Adrian, having done some research on 3yo compared to all age the WFA allowances do generally add up when converted to seconds. However a 2yo at the moment gets 37 lbs over a mile which converts into almost 3.5 seconds which to my mind is far too much.
Good post EC but a couple of points I’d like to pick up on.
1) IMO horses vary much like people in their maturity rate. For example Horse A may be fully mature by the end of his three year old career whereas Horse B may not be fully mature until he’s five years old. Over the last ten years or so older horses have generally in group ones been getting good results against three year olds, may this indicate that actually 3yo’s should get more of a weight for age allowance rather than less?
2) Is the 2yo weight allowance really that relevant as they barely ever compete against an older horse anyway? I remember Lyric Fantasy competing against the older horses as a 2yo in 1992 when she beat Mr Brookes in the Nunthorpe, suggesting maybe that the 2yo wfa allowance isn’t that far off the mark?
(Edited by The Market Man at 6:47 pm on July 31, 2006)<br>
(Edited by The Market Man at 6:48 pm on July 31, 2006)
Incidently Lyric Fantasy rather like Celtic Swing and Arazi was yet another superb two year old from the early nineties that couldn’t really cut it at three.
Lyric Fantasy beat Mr Brookes and Elbio amongst others as a 2yo in the Nunthorpe getting almost two stone wfa and sex allowance yet was destroyed by the same horses as a three year old once the weight allowance was adjusted.
EC I respect your posts, always well made and you speak a lot of sense.
(Edited by The Market Man at 7:17 pm on July 31, 2006)
Quote: from EC on 7:06 pm on July 31, 2006[br]
It’s this maturity argument <br>
<br>Think you’ve hit nail on head there EC
<br>Fascinating theories, but there are only three races in the program that mix 2-y-olds with older horses in the UK.
They are the Nunthorpe and the Listed Scarborough Stakes, both over 5F, and a run of the mill 6F conditions race at Newmarket for 2 and 3-y-olds only in late October.
I’m fairly sure that you can add the Prix De L’Abbaye to that list, but I don’t know if any other French races mix the generations.
AP
From my own observations, the WFA scale works reasonably well if you take race times as the yardstick. <br>Most 2yo races on decent ground at distances up to 7f are run at a decent pace, except perhaps those with very small fields, so the times are reliable. I’ve found that most of these races return times which you would expect given the allowance for immaturity, although you have to allow for the fact that the WFA scale is just an average and that young horses could easily be 5 or 6lbs either side of the average, giving quite a broad range of variability in race times. I apologise for not putting any figures to this at the moment, but I need to do a bit of preparation. The RP has updated the WFA scale to allow for horses maturing earlier than the WFA scale used by the BHB. I can let anyone have a copy if they email me via messenger – unfortunately it doesn’t copy to the forum pages very well.
Here are the median cumulative lenghts beaten of 3YO versus Older horses in all 3YO+ races over a mile in the UK since 2000
For example in Group 1 races where 3YO’s competed against older horses the 3YO’s were on average beaten half a lenght less than the older horses, in Group2 they were beaten half a lenght more.
Overall I think it goes to show that the WFA for 3YO’s does a pretty good job of equalising the lack of maturity.
WFA obviously dosent work for 2YO’s, the allowances and times simply do not add up.  Maybe thats because the handicapper has a lot of actual races to compare 3YO’s against older horses which isnt the case with 2YO’s.
I’d still like some ideas on how slower a 2YO per mile is compared to a mature horse
Cheers
GP1 -0.5<br>GP2 +0.5<br>GP3 +1.925<br>LST -0.1<br>B -0.575<br>C -0.65<br>D +1.5<br>E +1.5<br>F  +3.2<br>G  +2.3
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 8:40 pm on July 31, 2006)
I’ll stick my neck out by trying to predict the racetimes for Goodwood today, based on WFA and race standard(as defined by RPR ratings). The going is expected to be perfect good ground and I’m assuming(dangerous) that it will be uniform over the distances of the races I’ve covered. The races I’ve chosen, with one possible exception should be run at a fair pace. The rails positions are also going to be moved on Wednesday, which will effect racetimes.
2.05 10f standard at 9st, 106 124.5 secs<br>3.15 7f , 121(pace?) 83.2 secs<br>3.50 5f, 101 58.5 secs<br>5.00 6f, 84 72.7 secs<br>5.35 8f, 85 98.3 secs
My reason for doing this is that if WFA and race standard mean anything in the context of race times, you should be able to make predictions – as opposed to searching back through the form book for evidence to support your argument. If these predictions(over a period) are way out, I would be prepared to change my view.
AP, I’ve had a look through the index to the Parisian programme book and the L’Abbaye is the only race open to 2yos +
Italy has two Group races open for 2yo + viz.
Premio Chiusura (Gr.3) at Milan on Oct 29th over 1400 metres (7 furlongs). 2yos receive 20.5 lbs from 3yos and 22lb from 4yo +
Premio Umbria (Gr.3) at Rome on Nov 5th over 1200 metres (6 furlongs). 2yos receive 17.5 lbs from 3yos and upwards.
America only runs one Stakes races for 2yos and upwards and this is the Rocket Man Stakes at Calder on July 22nd which is only over 2 furlongs.
<br>Amazingly those three UK mixed age races existed almost 100 years ago. I have a 1913 form book that confirms the Nunthorpe (then a 5F seller), the Doncaster race (a 5F race called the Milton All Aged Selling Plate) and the Newmarket race in October (the 6F Dalham Plate) all had 2-y-o runners that year.
As an aside thinking about the current watering debate, the Ebor meeting was run on ‘hard going’ and the St Leger on ‘very hard going’.
AP
The times were generally slower than predicted, particularly the race won by Ifraaj, which must have been run at a steady pace. The last race was just under my expected time and if I was compiling speed ratings for the day, this would have to be the key race.
As for the 2yos, Enticing was 3lbs closer than Chataway to the expected time, but neither time would stand out when compared with the key race.
No conclusions possible from day 1 re WFA.
Yesterday’s Goodwood times were slowed by a brisk headwind in the straight as reported in the RP and mentioned by EC on the Ifraaj thread. Perhaps the wind dropped for the last race, which might explain the relatively quick time for that race.
My expected race times for Goodwood today are:
2.40, 7f 2yo, race standard 103, WFA 24  85.70secs<br>3.15, 8f,114                        96.20 secs<br>3.50, 12f 3yo, 102, WFA 11           155.60secs<br>4.25, 9f, 85,                       112.70secs<br>5.00 6f 2yo, 81, WFA 21              73.00secs<br>5.35 7f, 99,                        84.50secs<br>               <br>Actual race times:
2.40 86.02 – 0.32 secs slower than expected<br>3.15 96.10 – 0.10 secs faster than expected<br>3.50 154.66 -0.94 secs faster than expected<br>4.25 113.56 -0.76secs slower than expected<br>5.00 72.89 – 0.11 secs faster than expected<br>5.35 85.52 – 1.02 secs slower than expected
The 3.15, Sussex Stakes won by Court Masterpiece and the 5.00 2yo 6f race won by Sacre Couer are the key time races. More might be gleaned from these times if they are looked at with the RP race analysis to hand. <br>
(Edited by Artemis at 7:39 pm on Aug. 2, 2006)
EC
If (and it’s a big IF with this sort of thing), you accept the RP standards, which Topspeed is bound by, then the ground is good because both Court Masterpiece and Sacre Couer ran within a few hundredths of a second of the times you would expect on good ground. The course record at 8f is only about half a second below the good ground standard.
The 3yo, Strategic Mount ran nearly a second faster than you would expect, so that was either:
1. a very good performance indeed, or:
2. the ground out on the far side(which wasn’t watered, as much as the last 6f before racing) was riding faster, or:
3. the going was faster than good(making a few of the other races relatively slower, or:
4. a combination of the above and other factors.
I believe there is a big problem here that will be hard to resolve. You have your own standard times, which you’ve worked out over a period and have confidence in.<br>I’ve been working with RP standards for a long time and I believe they are fairly accurate given what they are trying to measure. Two different approaches, both using objective methods, but different conclusions if we rely on the generally used terms for describing the ground.<br>Is it possible that we are both correct? I wonder. I know there are other people who contribute to the forum who have their own standards, which are probably different from those we rely on. Perhaps we are just arguing about semantics. Good? Good to Firm? Firm? Fast? Good safe ground(watered)? These are just words which might mean different things to different people. Jockeys often give different descriptions of the going, as do trainers, commentators and anyone else with an opinion.
The RP is saying:
This is the method we use for determining speed ratings and the going. The results are given as a rating on the same scale as the RPR ratings and the going is given as + or – so many secs per furlong on a scale that can be approximated to various accepted descriptions ranging from fast to heavy. I think what you might be saying is that where the RP scale says this is approximately good ground, your own standards suggest to you that it is faster than that. There seems to be no absolute measurement of going: it comes down to opinion, like most things in this intriguing sport. I respect your opinion, although I cannot always agree with it. <br>
There are two interesting pairs of races today which are very interesting from a time perspective.
The first pair is the two 5f races, one a Group 3 and the other a decent handicap. The figures I use suggest that the Group 3 should be 1.36 secs(equal to 30lbs) faster.If the going is at 0 on the RP standard, the times would be:
2.40 standard 119, 56.94secs<br>5.35 " 89 58.30 secs.
The second pair of races are over 7f, the first a decent 3yo handicap, the other a fair 2yo maiden. There is a gulf of 36lbs between the two after allowing for class and WFA.
Expected times, going = 0(good?)
4.25 3yo, standard 103, WFA 4 84.46secs<br>5.00 2yo, standard 87, WFA 24 86.74secs<br>
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.