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It’s 50/50 in regards to when the Derby winners have made their debuts. 7 before September 1st and 7 after August 31st. I’ll definitely go through the other less debatable trends at the end of the year just to double check but at the moment I’d say that the Derby winner hasn’t made his debut. Gosden’s got the main 2 English hopes on my shortlist but his Group 1 wins tend to come in the 2nd half of the season or in the French 1000 Guineas. I really really like the look of Stoute’s Warm Memories and the Irish have about 10 chances on my list with Vita Venturi, Star of the Show, Ferdinand Magellan and Captain James Cook the stand-outs. I’ll give it til the end of the month to hopefully remove another 2 or 3 names from the list and then I’ll start trying to get some proper AP odds on the unraced ones.
Stats are over-rated
St Nicholas Abbey won very impressively the other day. Looked like a very smart type.
They’re only stats if you read them only as numbers.
If you read them as numbers plus an explanation as to why the numbers are the way they are, I don’t think they’re overrated at all.
Or perhaps you think it’s a total coincidence that loads of children were born during and after WW2?
Guessing guessing guessing….
All in the one thread you claim "sexy" breeding is not all its cracked up to be, only then a few posts later you rule horses out because they don’t have enough "class" in the pedigree (in your opinion I hasten to add).
Aidan, you’re well respected on here and clearly in a high profile job but that doesn’t give you the right to talk down to people. You were doing it a few years ago and you’re still doing it now.
There’s a colossal difference between being a hype horse simply because he/she’s a full-brother/sister to another Group 1 winner (a la Benvenuto, Masterofthehorse, Black Bear Island, Black Sam Bellamy, etc), a horse like Captain James Cook (a half-brother to a Grade 2 and 3 winner in the States) and a horse like Morana (a half-brother to Blythe Knight and 7 other horses, none of whom recorded black type).
The former I would class as having ‘sexy’ breeding, the middle I would class as having ‘classy’ breeding and the latter I would class as ‘not having enough class’ breeding.
Wouldn’t you agree?
So to be as blunt as you were, I don’t give a damn whether you think I’m guessing or not, I just wish you would ask for all the information before saying it.
I was planning to concentrate on the Guineas, as I thought that would be far easier to whittle down, but as Zarkava is so enthused by the Derby, I am going to have a go at that as well. I should be able to come up with something meaningful or interesting in about a week’s time. I’ve just entered all the entries into a spreadsheet. About 1/3 of them are unnamed, including ones in training.
I’m a little disappointed that I can’t write something for a laugh without having to include an emoticon, so that people will realise I’m not being serious. This year’s 3yos were being written off even before the season started, so I thought I’d jump in early.
I was planning to concentrate on the Guineas, as I thought that would be far easier to whittle down, but as Zarkava is so enthused by the Derby, I am going to have a go at that as well.
It’s only because the Derby 2yo trends allow any followers to remove horses so easily and quickly. Debut on a non-Group 1 track? Nope, you’re gone. Outside the top 5 on any start? You’re outta here. 2 attempts to break you maiden? Bye bye.
I use foaling dates, others don’t. I also look at the record of each stallion’s progeny over the past 14 years while I’m also happy to remove any horse who doesn’t have a RP Trophy or Dewhurst entry. Add those all together while allowing a bit of room for maneuver and you can get it down to a fairly short list quite easily.
The good thing about those trends is that I’m fairly sure they all existed 20 years ago as well, so they ain’t transient.
I’m going to start from basics. and see if I can pick up a new angle.
On the pissing against the wind front, I had a look for all the entrants with Miswaki as a Damsire, and I was a little surprised that there are only two.
Plato
(Cecil), by Bago, is unraced, but I am going to try to keep an eye out for him. Nureyev and Mr Prospector are on both sides of the pedigree, so the Derby might be out. Miesque is the Great Aunt.
edit: Okay, I’m going to fall for the bleeding obvious.
Azmeel
looks to me as if he could be both a Guineas and a Derby horse. Really hope he runs in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
29Jul09 Sandown (7Gd ,RPR85)
He is a nice sort of horse but has only worked on the bridle. It is early days but he is probably more a Royal Lodge than a Champagne horse. – John Gosden, trainerA question for you guys did Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory have entries in the Dewhurst and RP Trophy last year.
And what are you guys thoughts on Showcasing.Could he get a mile and be a contender for next years 2000 Guineas.
The Gimcrack-Middle Park route is just about the worst possible route you could take as a 2yo for the Guineas. All 15 runners in the Middle Park since 1995 have been beaten (only Dutch Art placed) and you’d need to go back to back to 2006 to find a Gimcrack runner who even ran in the Guineas (14 runners in total, 1 winner (Rock of Gibraltar) and 1 placed (Mujahid)).
If you look at the Coventry as well actually, 22 runners from that have run in the Guineas since 1995 and just 2 were placed – actually both were victorious, Henrythenavigator and Rock of Gibraltar.
It’s stuff like this on the trends that makes you realise how simply unbelievable Aidan O’Brien is and I maintain that anybody who doesn’t at least look at the trends will never appreciate him fully.
I’ve not been able to find the Racing Post Trophy entries in full for last year but Fame And Glory was almost certainly one of O’Brien’s 44 entries. I don’t know if Sea The Stars held an entry as well but both were entered in the Dewhurst from the initial entry stage.
Tiny edit, albeit 1 month later – Hannon also had a Coventry runner placed in the Guineas which I somehow missed, so 2-1-20 for Coventry runners.
For those into superstitions Al Zir (like Dubai Millennium) had his name changed
To what?
It sounded like a work-in-progress name, and definitely unattractive if hitting the Classic scene next year.
Pity they’ve already used Meydan City on the $11.7 million flop.
PS. Just noticed that I spieled about Emerald Commander on the first page. Paid 7-1 the place over here. Amazing when you get only 1k in the win/place pool!
He was originally named Cup O’Joe – then Sheikh Mo bought him and re-named him
I’ll stay out of the Showcasing debate, and just be an interested observer.
Okay Zarkava, I’m halfway through the Derby trends, having worked through the RP database.
I’ll be redoing the Dosage, GSV and Conduit Mare Profile stuff as I can’t find my original notes. (Aidan, you CAN insert a
at this point. )Excluding Generous, because his Damsire Master Derby had few if any runners in Britain, then 17 out of the last 19 Derby winners had a combined Flat Stamina Index for their Sire and Damsire of between 19 and 23 furlongs. The two exceptions are recent however. Sea The Stars is 16.9, but his dam won the Arc and had already produced a Derby winner. Authorized is 24.9, but he won a Group 1 as a 2yo to show some precocity.
If a 2yo makes his debut after the Derby, then it is at 7f+. Not sure whether you have that already.
I need to go back and double check this bit. 12 out of the 20 Derby winners had an older sibling with an RPR of 100+. I reckon that if a Derby entrant has had at least two siblings that have run, then at least one of them has to have attained a RPR of 100+.
I’ll do a full comprehensive report in a few days.
Hope that helps.
I need to go back and double check this bit. 12 out of the 20 Derby winners had an older sibling with an RPR of 100+. I reckon that if a Derby entrant has had at least two siblings that have run, then at least one of them has to have attained a RPR of 100+.
Yeah I have data on this too. From the past 21 winners, there were only 3 winners who had 2+ older siblings of which none had attained blacktype – High Rise, Sinndar and Shaamit. High Rise’s best older sibling attained a RPR of 69, Sinndar 94 and Shaamit 82.
Just 2 winners came from first time broodmares and a whopping 7 had 2 older siblings with blacktype.
Gerald.I like to know your views on Showcasing on if he can get a mile or not.
Zarkava.What did you think of Kingsfort on his debut form is working out well.And did any of you guys see the debut of St Nicholas Abbey last sunday.My early contender for next’s years Derby
Darren, I am an idiot. My views don’t mean anything. What you want are the views of people like Bulwark and Reet Hard.
Okay, this should have everyone reaching for their Gin & Tonic.
Showcasing
2-y-o (31Mar07 b c)
Oasis Dream (7.3f) — Arabesque (Zafonic (USA) (8.6f))
Trainer J H M Gosden
Owner K Abdulla
Breeder Juddmonte Farms Ltdhttp://www.pedigreequery.com/showcasing2%5B/color:2ubiyocg%5D
First of all, what were Juddmonte thinking when they sent Arabesque to Oasis Dream. Did they think we’ll try to breed a Guineas winner, or did they think we’ll save on stud fees by doing the shagging inhouse, or did Abdulla want to get a speedy 2yo so that he could win the Gimcrack and get to give a speech later in the year on the state of British horse racing?
If I was doing a profiling of the 2010 Guineas entries, then Showcasing would be one of the ones I would chuck out. This is because the only tool I’ve got in my armoury at the moment is the Flat Stamina Index of the Sire and Damsire. If you look at the list I did on page 1 of this thread, then you will see that in the past 20 years or so Tirol was the horse with the lowest Sire FSI of 7.7 (Thatching). Oasis Dream’s Figure is 7.3, but that might go up a tadge after Tuesday’s Great Voltiguer.
To win the Guineas, ideally you want a horse that will stay 10f, not 8f, as it is early in the 3yo season, and it is on a straight mile instead of around a bend, so the leaders don’t get a breather at some stage around the bend.
If you combine the Sire and Damsire figures then Showcasing’s adds up to 15.9
The only Guineas winner in the list with a lower total is Rodrigo de Triano (15.4). [edit: Actually, I overlooked Island Sands, so that’s two out of twenty. However, JO Tobin’s figure of 5.3 looks distinctly misleading, probably based upon a very small number of runners.][/color:2ubiyocg]
So much for generalities, now look at particulars. The main reason I didn’t want to give an opinion is because I think it is highly likely that Oasis Dream will sire a Guineas winner sometime in the next decade. [edit: Naaqoos.
] One things is for sure – he gets his fair share of high-class horses.Let’s look behind the figures.
Oasis Dream
By Green Desert, also the sire of Cape Cross. Free H’cap winner put in his place by Dancing Brave.
But look at the bottom half of Oasis Dream’s pedigree – you’ve got Dancing Brave, Mill Reef and Busted.Arabesque
This is a similar story to Oasis Dream.
By Zafonic, but look at the bottom half – Warning, Lyphard, Herbager.There would be no surprise at all in the progeny getting a mile.
Rightly or wrongly Oasis Dream reminds me of Last Tycoon. It it the presence of Mill Reef. He (LT) won the St Georges, Gros Chene, King’s Stand and Nunthorpe all over 5f, but then won the Breeders’ Cup Mile
my best bit of tipping ever.Showcasing’s year older full-sister, Bouvardia, has her own fan club and TRF thread after she won the Coral Sprint Hcap (main trial for the William Hill Trophy) on my birthday. Cecil started her off in two races over 7f, but has dropped her to 6f now (and even tried 5f as well).
Time to bring in the lawyers – I’m going to copy wholescale two relevant articles.
Arabesque clan play starring role at York
By Martin Stevens4.29PM 19 AUG 2009JUDDMONTE broodmare Arabesque brought her influence to bearon today’s two juvenile stakes races at York, with her son Showcasing scoring impressively in the Gimcrack Stakes and, just over an hour later, Showcasing’s half-brother Camacho siring Star Rover, the gritty Roses Stakes winner.
Arabesque is the product of mating two horses who made 1993 an annus mirabilis for Juddmonte owner Price Khalid Abdullah – Zafonic, who dazzled in the 2,000 Guineas, and Prophecy, who landed the Cheveley Park Stakes that year.
Placed in two starts as a juvenile, Arabesque was an impressive maiden winner over 6f at three and went on to land a Listed race over the same distance later that season.
Her stud career got off to a flying start with her first foal, Camacho. The son of Danehill was trained by Henry Cecil to win a 6f Listed event and finish runner-up in the Jersey Stakes at three.
Subsequently sold to stand at Morristown Lattin Stud, Camacho is represented by his first crop of two-year-olds this year.
Besides Star Rover – who showed admirable resolve to fend off the persistent challenge of runner-up Mister Manannan and win the Roses Stakes – he has been represented by four other winners.
Showcasing, Arabesque’s sixth foal, carries the colours of Prince Khalid Abdullah, just as his dam, granddam and sire Oasis Dream did during their glittering racing careers.
He earned quotes as low as 14-1 for the 2,000 Guineas after asserting his authority over a good Gimcrack field, crossing the line two lengths ahead of runner-up Taajub with Molecomb Stakes winner Monsieur Chevalier a further head back in third.
Adding further lustre to the family is Showcasing’s year-older sister Bouvardia, who finished second in the Listed Flying Fillies’ Stakes at Pontefract on Sunday.
Giving Juddmonte even more cause for celebration is the fact that Showcasing is Oasis Dream’s third Group 2 winner in the space of four days, after Sri Putra scored in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville on Sunday and Monitor Closely landed the Great Voltigeur Stakes at York yesterday.
Showcasing 14-1 for Guineas after Gimcrack
By David Baxter2.53PM 19 AUG 2009
Report: York, Wednesday
Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) 6fSHOWCASING was cut to 14-1 (from 25) for the Stan James.com 2,000 Guineas by the sponsors following an impressive success in the hands of Jimmy Fortune.
In the colours of Khalid Abudalla, the pair were slowly away from the stalls, with Orpen Grey assuming his usual position at the head of affairs +with Taajub in second.
Monsieur Chevalier, chasing his seventh win in eight career starts was badly outpaced and as the pace increased found himself several lengths off the pace.
With more than a furlong left to run Fortune and Showcasing came between the tiring Orpen Grey and Taajub, and quickly put the race to bed stretching clear to win by two lengths.
What looked a visually stylish performance, was further enhanced by the time, as the son of Oasis Dream set a new course record at 1m09.28seconds.
Taajub, a 16-1 chance, stuck to his guns to finish second, while Monsieur Chevalier came with a late rattle but could only finish third, a further half-length back, at 5-2.
Winning jockey Fortune said: "He relaxed nicely today,which is what you want from these sprinters, although he was looking at the cameraman under the rails in the closing stages. He will definitely get another furlong."
Trainer John Gosden said: "He is a lot like his father Oasis Dream – he is very laid back, the same build as him and certainly the best Oasis Dream I’ve had.
"He is very quick at home, yet he went to sleep a bit in the first half of the race. We will take the same route as his father and go for the Shadwell Middle Park Stakes.
"We had tried to run in the Richmond Stakes and at Newbury, but he needs to bounce off the ground. He is a proper speed horse.
"If he wins that (Middle Park) well and the ground remains good for the Darley Dewhurst we can debate that then.
"We will certainly have him (entered) in it, I’ve no problem with that, and then we can debate it.
"At this moment, this boy tells me he’s a sprinter, that’s what he says right now."
[/color:2ubiyocg]
Trainer of runner-up Taajub, William Haggas, said: "It was a great run. Richard (Hills) said he thought he wasn’t mad keen on the ground, but I thought he wanted a bit of fast ground.
"He will now go for the Weatherbys Insurance Stakes as it is worth a lot of money."
Monsieur Chevalier’s winning spree came to an end with his third-place finish, and trainer Richard Hannon was represented by his son and assistant Richard junior.
He said: "I think the ground was a little bit quick for him, but he has run a great race – it can’t be bad finishing third in a Gimcrack. I imagine he will now go for the Middle Park."
It may be that Gosden is playing things cautiously in public because of disappointment in the Guineas’ with Raven’s Pass and Rainbow View.I’m just worried that if Gosden was Dancing Brave’s trainer he would also say "This boy is telling me he is a sprinter".
Anyway, I can’t see how you can have a bet on Showcasing for the 2,000 Guineas , when the trainer is expressing doubts.[/color:2ubiyocg]
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