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The O Brien horses are very in and out at the moment.
That wasnt much of a performance but his maiden was poor enough. You can rule him out for sure now.
AOB is a creature of habit and his best horses go for the best races…
Just realised something last night. Of the past 15 Derby winners, 7 won a Maiden on their final start as a 2yo, 6 won a Group 1 on their final start, 1 won a Group 1 on his final start and the other finished 3rd in the Royal Lodge.
St. Nicholas Abbey won the Beresford, but he can be ruled out on foaling dates, so eyes firmly on the Racing Post Trophy given that the Dewhurst is likely to be full of Guineas horses. Jarvis’ Hot Prospect runs in the RP Trophy, as does Coordinated Cut, as does Al Zir. Should be a very hot race.
Word is that Nibani of Michael Stoute is a very exciting 2yo for Ballymacoll. Makes sense that he’s been missing from the RP Trophy and Dewhurst decs since Stoute always brings his 2yos along slowly, especially Ballymacoll’s ones. He’s not been declared for a maiden at Kempton on Wednesday thankfully and looks like he’ll be debuting at Newmarket on Friday. I’ve had £2 at 140s.
I’ve also had £5 on Hot Prospect at 42s. He’s apparently an extremely smart 2yo for Michael Jarvis and his maiden is probably now the strongest maiden run this year given that the runner-up (Morana) won a Group 3 at Ascot on Saturday.
Hot Prospect is one very much on the trends, while Nibani meets the foaling date and dam criteria. If he’s declared for the maiden on Friday I’ll probably have another £2 or £3 on him.
A quick update, since anybody who’s not keeping up with the thread will have no clue what I’m doing and also any newcomers.
My Derby shortlist based on the trends looks like (any bets I’ve had on them in brackets);
(1) Coordinated Cut (£6.25 33s)
Vita Venturi
(12) Chabal (£2.10 25s)
(41) Jan Vermeer
Sadler’s Mark
Nibani (£2 139s)
Star Of The Show
(21) Hot Prospect (£5 41s)
Pekan Three
(21) Rigidity
Warm Memories
Scottish ReelTheoretically I can rule out Chabal (I’m convinced he’ll barely get 11f, let alone 12f), Sadler’s Mark (doesn’t look anywhere near good enough based on connections, entries and pedigree), Pekan Three (probably won’t be debuting until next year) and Scottish Reel (pedigree nothing special) but for the sake of the trends I’ve left them on the list.
I’ve also lost £5.90 on Azmeel (no chance) and £2 on Mushreq (crap).
My 2000 Guineas shortlist looks like this;
Kingsfort (£2 20s)
Steinbeck
Chabal
Workforce (added after much deliberation)
Al ZirChabal I will not be backing under any circumstances. His price is far too short for a Galileo colt and he’s a Galileo colt. He’ll lack the speed needed in a 1m sprint. Steinbeck I’ll probably back if he finishes 3rd, 4th or 5th in the Dewhurst. He’ll drift a fair bit in the betting and his odds will probably be a fair representation of his chances in May, but the current 15/1 on offer is comfortably the worst value ante-post opportunity at the moment.
Al Zir I’ll be backing if he finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the RP Trophy, otherwise no. Workforce needs to run again this season and I’m not sure where that’ll be, other than the RP Trophy, in which case it’ll be the same situation as Al Zir.
Kingsfort I’ll be backing again before the Dewhurst. The fact that he’s available at a bigger price now than he’s ever been on Betfair is surely some sort of joke.
I’ve also got;
Arcano (£10 20s, £2.65 40s) and £17.40 of dud bets.
My 1000 Guineas shortlist keeps changing every time I look at the situation, but I’ve got;
(1258) Jeanie Johnston
(16113) Lady Of The Desert
(13) Seta(3132) Lady Darshaan (£2 95s)
(21) Foolish Ambition (£2 110s)
Valley AuntThose in red either don’t look good enough, are really pushing the trends boundaries or look as if they aren’t being aimed at the race.
I also have £2 at 90s on Sent From Heaven. She’s been eliminated on the trends because she finished outside the top 3 in the Fillies’ Mile, but that’s extremely harsh on her since she was badly hampered inside the final 1 1/2f and could easily have finished ahead of You’ll Be Mine with a clear run. I don’t have any dud bets in this race.
Not even thought about the Oaks situation yet and probably won’t until the entries in March, although there’s 1 filly I really like the look of.
My total outlay so far is £61 and change, and of the 9 live bets I’ve got, only 2 of them will show an overall loss. The others all show a huge profit so I’ll probably have a play around with another £40 or so between now and April. I’m absolutely certain I’ll get at least 1 winner, so I’m happy to gamble on me getting 1 winner to get my money back/put me in profit and then hope I get another winner from the other 3.
Zarkava
Peakan Three is racing at Newmarket on Friday looks like Callan will on him
And who is the filly you have in mind for the oaks
So he is. He’s also entered at Nottingham on Thursday and Callan’s booked for that as well, so if he he runs there he’s immediately gone on the trends.
And the filly I like is Kithonia.
Edit – Just been through the 1000 Guineas market on Betfair. An absolutely colossally priced horse given what she’s achieved is Hibaayeb. She’s a negative on the trends, but 65s for a Fillies’ Mile winner!?! Stupid thing is that she’s only going to get bigger. My worry with her is that Clive will run her at Santa Anita which would really worry me, but if she skips it she’s certainly worth a couple of quid. And if she lines up in May she definitely won’t be 65s.
Beyond Desire, Crystal Gal and Middle Club are showing up on the trends, although certainly the latter 2 look as if they lack the required quality to win a Classic.
But the one who’s really catching my eye, rather unsurprisingly, is Tabassum. The only thing that’d worry me about her at this stage is that she seems very free and it wouldn’t be a colossal surprise if she sweated up in the preliminaries in May and then pulled her jockey’s arms out before fading away. I’d love to see her pull very hard in the Nell Gwyn or Fred Darling and hopefully the quick reappearance in the Guineas will mean she has less energy to exert, not to mention she’ll be a better price, so happy to leave the 13.5s available on her alone. No extra bets at this stage, but certainly will be backing Hibaayeb if she’s not on the plane to the States.
p.s. I should note, You’ll Be Mine’s done absolutely nothing wrong, but Aidan O’Brien’s 1000 Guineas record is dreadful (usually leaves them short of fitness before a crack at the Irish 1000 and then the Oaks with horses like her). She’s certainly a good back-to-lay prospect, but I’m not interested in doing those.
I’ve just put £2 on my old friend Jan Vermeer at an average price of 38/1. Midas Touch just franked the form with a nice maiden victory and O’Brien said Jan would be running in one of the Criteriums. Certainly not a path associated with top class O’Brien horses but it’s worth £2 just incase.
Edit – And £3 on Kingsfort at 31s.
Just to let you know that I read that Lady Of The Desert’s target is supposedly the Pouliches.
Edit:
Eightfold Path
update (No, I don’t know what page we last mentioned him – you should have been paying attention. Maybe we should create an index!
)Won today.
Alan Cooper, racing manager for the colt’s owners, the Niarchos family, said in the winner’s enclosure: "He has been progressing with every race and Stephane said today’s distance was too short for him. He will not run again this year and will be campaigned in all the top mile events next season."
I’m not used to reading something as definite as that last sentence.
My Ante post betting looks like this
Kingsfort 2000 Guineas.20 and 12
Steinbeck.2000 Guineas 12/1ST Nicholas Abbey. Derby 25/1 20/1 9/1
Lillie Langtry 1000 Guineas 14/1 7/1 10/1
Has anyone heard of a horse called Maroon Machine it is trained by O’Neil and saw it in the entries for the Dewhurst at Betfair.
Godolphin….I hate them with a Passion.
Chabal now sold to run for them in there ludicrous operation.
Almost certainly can’t win the 2000 Guineas.
All Aboard AOB laddies as the Kingsfort/Chabal ships have been sunk.
Why cant they leave them alone and buy the stud right if there successful….and then buy the yearling at the sales and train them through the ranks
At least I’ll now be able to get my 20/1 Chabal at Christmastime, if I want.
It IS getting beyond a joke though. I looked askance when they bought Daylami off the Aga Khan, but as least they kept him in training as a 4yo.
You’d have thought with their such poor buying record with 2yos in recent years, that there would be some kind of let up or circumspection, but no.
I suppose the mistake we’re making is in thinking that Godolphin is some sort of well-thought out breeding and racing operation, when in fact it is just Sheikh Mohammed’s favourite hobby.
Don’t get me wrong – Sheikh Mohammed is one of my favourite people in racing – I just wish he’d get rid of the Godolphin banner, and run everything in his own name, and in those lovely maroon and white colours.
Hi Darren, there was an article about O’Neill, yesterday I think, on the Sportinglife site:
British racegoers have seen a lot less of the 39-year-old since he bought a yard for the majority of his horses in France during the spring and he managed to slip under the punting radar with a 20-1 success in last Saturday’s Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar.O’Neill has never been a trainer prepared to stick to conventional boundaries and was sending out runners – and winners – all over Europe during the earlier parts of his career from bases in Newmarket and then Nottinghamshire and it is no surprise that Redcar star Lucky Like could be off travelling too.
"We’ll definitely run him again," said O’Neill.
"He might go for the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte (November 3) or there is also the option of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
"I’ve always thought he was nice but Franny Norton got off him on Saturday and described him as a proper horse. He won very easily so we’re excited about him."
Lucky Like is not the only horse in the yard with important targets. O’Neill plans to get Kieren Fallon to ride Maroon Machine in the Dewhurst and of others, he revealed:
"Times Vital is a definite runner in the Cesarewitch and Franny will ride him too. Philander is also a definite runner in the Racing Post Trophy."
A former protg of Sir Mark Prescott and John Gosden, O’Neill’s ambition impressed wealthy owner John Fretwell enough to invite him to train at his establishment in Averham Park near Newark in 2004.
In a four-year partnership, they shared notable victories in races like the Champagne and the Richmond Stakes.
O’Neill still has a link with Nottinghamshire and sets himself a pretty busy schedule.
"I have two bases. My satellite yard is a 120-acre farm with two Polytracks on it. We bought that in March and the easiest way to describe where it lies is to say it’s 100 miles west of Paris. It’s isolated, but that’s the way I like it.
"I have another base at Southwell so I commute between the two. I might spend four days in France, then two in England.
"Some horses like England, some France, but the main thing we have over here (France) is the prize money, even for run-of-the-mill stuff.
"I just got fed up wi other day (Green Dandy). She’s a fair filly but she came fifth and we came back with over eight grand."
O’Neill’s international outlook is causing him few problems in settling in.
He explains: "I have worked in France for many years so it’s not a place that is new to me. It’s just nice to get back used to it again.
"I did my apprenticeship with Robert Collet, and I’ve had runners in Germany, Italy, England and Ireland, so I have had the experience, and a lot of people do want to send horses to me.
"Perhaps it just seems a very fresh, new idea, and people have caught on to it. Some like the idea of having a horse trained over here and they notice someone new has made the break."
Zarkava
I know you will not bet on him to win the Derby next year. But what have you thought of the performances by ST Nicholas Abbey
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I’m keen to see how Derby-entry
Burnett
runs on his debut at Newcastle tomorrow. He’s obviously not available in any ante-post markets yet, but Godolphin had a daugher of Dyanformer win impressively on her first start at Windsor this afternoon and I’m reasonably hopeful that this one will run well.
How likely is Kalypso King to stay the Derby trip (Richard Hannon already has two fairly prominent Guineas contenders, including the winner)?
I’d say on pedigree Kalypso King has reasonable prospects of staying 12f. Giant’s Causeway has his fair share of 10f+ performers and Kalypso Katie ran her best race when second in the Oaks, she herself is related to at least one 12f winner and is out of a mare who put up the better of her 2 efforts when winning over 15f.
I was on Kingsfort some time ago for the 2000 Guineas, but, to be honest, am not particularly smitten with any of the Irish 2-y-os this year. So far.
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