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Wide margin winners can obviously be deceptive but both Poet’s Voice and Seta deserve a mention. The Godolphin horse didn’t look entirely straightforward (possibly still a little green) but he eventually strode out impressively to go clear in the final furlong. He looks as if he is suited by a sound surface and should have no problem with a step up in trip. Luca Cumani hasn’t run many 2yo’s so far and none were fancied to make winning debuts – in contrast obviously a fair few people knew plenty about Seta and no surprise if some are holding some nice ante-post wagers. Always travelling kindly she absolutely bolted up. From one of the best Leigh families it would no surprise to see her take plenty of beating in the Fillies Mile. As I fancy she could cope with good/good to soft there are probably worse 12/1 ante-post wagers around.
Benvenuto
in the 3.45 at Cork has a high-class pedigree (dam Sequoyah), but I haven’t looked at any of the other runners yet.
edit: I knew she had produced a Guineas winner before, but I couldn’t remember which one.
Full-brother to Henrythenavigator.
Yeah this sexy breeding is never what it seems. Smashed, 4th in a Cork maiden. Only positive to take from it is that it wasn’t a Galway maiden. Sorciere was also beaten today as well, by Zanzibar. Good Prix Yacolew winners are very few and far between.
Yes Zarkava, I was wondering afterwards whether I was a bit silly to give that debutant a mention.
Let us say that there are about 50 classic-winning-producing mares with 2yos running.
There will also be about 20 classic-winning mares with 2yos running.
Out of those 70 2yos how many will end up winning a Group 1?
I suspect it is 2 or 3.
Piece in Racing Post today suggesting Seta is a poor price for the 1,000 Guineas (possibly?) but then offering Cabaret as an alternative. Why would anyone want to take a long range gamble on one of O’Brien’s – given the number of potential runners in his stable what is the point in guessing? Fair enough at 66/1+ for a small stake but we all know it is 33/1 bar everything. With Cumani you know he is only going to have a small number of contenders and if good enough it is more than likely Seta will be aimed at the 1,000 Guineas. The first consideration of any ante-post bet must be how likely the horse is to run.
Seems we have another crackerjack to look forward to in the form of Al Zir (at Newmarket yesterday). He made the running, quickened away effortlessly at the furlong pole and won easing down by 4 lengths.
OK, newcomer races are, most times, hard to evaluate but this horse looks very good indeed. Actually, if you take Al Zir out of that race, the second horse, Awesome Act, would’ve won by 3 and 1/2 lengths.
I’m already beginning to anticipate what the Dewhurst is going to be like this year
Check out Khattaab’s performance at Haydock
For those into superstitions Al Zir (like Dubai Millennium) had his name changed
Does look a good maiden. The 3rd horse (Munsarim? Can’t remember the name) is one of John Dunlop’s very few entries for the Dewhurst and also one of the names on my list of 70-odd of who can win the Derby.
Actually just been through the list. Based on entries and being more harsh on the foaling dates, my main 11 are;
Bass Rock (bit iffy)
Captain James Cook (absolutely no idea why but I seem to be in love with this horse already)
Coordinated Cut
Ferdinand Magellan
High Twelve
Jan Vermeer
Munsarim
Sheklaan
Stunning View
Tactician (Bell didn’t mention him in his stable tour so not one to get excited about)
TaqleedKingsfort.Was very impressive on debut and the form is working very well.I also like Stienbeck as well.They are my picks for next years 2000 Guineas.
Zarkava
Have you got both Steinbeck and St Nicholas Abbey.In your derby horses as both horses are in hills market.Steinbeck is 40/1.And ST Nicholas is 25/1
And no replys on Kingsfort don’t you guys think he is any good.
Does look a good maiden. The 3rd horse (Munsarim? Can’t remember the name) is one of John Dunlop’s very few entries for the Dewhurst and also one of the names on my list of 70-odd of who can win the Derby.
Actually just been through the list. Based on entries and being more harsh on the foaling dates, my main 11 are;
Bass Rock (bit iffy)
Captain James Cook (absolutely no idea why but I seem to be in love with this horse already)
Coordinated Cut
Ferdinand Magellan
High Twelve
Jan Vermeer
Munsarim
Sheklaan
Stunning View
Tactician (Bell didn’t mention him in his stable tour so not one to get excited about)
TaqleedWell we had the Dewhurst and RP Trophy entries since this post so I should update. I’ve been through the last few years and the Derby winner was entered for either the Dewhurst or RP Trophy. I’m happy to continue with this trend for the obvious reason.
Those who are entered for both races and comply with the current trends are;
(11) Azmeel
Captain James Cook
Coordinated Cut
(1) Emirates Dream
Ferdinand Magellan (has the most entries of all the Ballydoyle qualifiers)
(21) High Twelve
Star of the Show
Vita VenturiChabal – won’t stay?
Jan Vermeer – no real class in pedigree
Moby Dick – lacking in entries
(3) Munsarim – no real class in pedigree, won’t stay
Sadler’s Mark – good enough?
September Morn – lacking in entries
Viceroy – lacking in entries
Dynasty – won’t stay (Saturday @ Fairyhouse?)Those with just a Dewhurst entry are;
Stunning View – probably won’t stay
Pekan Three – not much class in pedigree
Rigidity – probably won’t stayWhile those with just a RP Trophy entry are;
(31) Waseet – probably won’t stay
(2) Hot Prospect – no real class in pedigree
Bridge Mountain – lacking in entries
Scottish Reel – lacking in entriesKhalid Abdulla doesn’t make any entries for the Derby at the opening stage so I looked through the Gosden and Stoute entries for the Dewhurst & RP Trophy and Stoute has these 2 possibles;
Nibani
Warm MemoriesI can’t stand Steinbeck’s form, it gets worse and worse every week, and he made his debut at a non-Group 1 track so he’s out. St Nicholas Abbey’s a mid-April foal so can’t be having him.
The Guineas picture is a lot harder but I’ll know a lot more about that in 3 weeks.
On another note, can anyone tell me what Milan’s been up to the past few years? I noticed a few weeks ago but forgot to ask. O’Brien has one of Milan’s progeny entered in the Derby and I don’t remember ever seeing any of his progeny in a race before.
On Pedigree Query it says he is a NH Stallion.
Of his progeny, it lists 4 from 2005, 6 from 2006 etc. These presumably are mostly the ones that have run on the Flat.
On St Nicholas Abbey.Why does it matter it was a April foal.
And while the form of Steinbeck has been bad the horse it self looked very good on debut.And the horse he beat Gold Bubbles.Beat Air Chief Marshall on is previous race. Who then went on to be 2nd behind Alfred Nobel.So that form is not bad.But the other horses behind Steinbeck did not look good.
St Nicholas Abbey’s a mid-April foal so can’t be having him.
On St Nicholas Abbey.Why does it matter it was a April foal.
3 May High Rise
22 April Oath
18 May Commander in Chief
24 May ErhaabFor those into superstitions Al Zir (like Dubai Millennium) had his name changed
To what?
It sounded like a work-in-progress name, and definitely unattractive if hitting the Classic scene next year.
Pity they’ve already used Meydan City on the $11.7 million flop.
PS. Just noticed that I spieled about Emerald Commander on the first page. Paid 7-1 the place over here. Amazing when you get only 1k in the win/place pool!
St Nicholas Abbey’s a mid-April foal so can’t be having him.
On St Nicholas Abbey.Why does it matter it was a April foal.
3 May High Rise
22 April Oath
18 May Commander in Chief
24 May ErhaabYup, Sea The Stars April 6th too.
However, bar the 2 dreadful winners (the former 2), the superstar winner and the fact that my trends only go back to 1995, April/May/June foals don’t have a wonderful record in the Derby while actually very few AMJ foals go on to be top class. I don’t have a specific and factual argument behind this but I’d imagine that it’s possibly to do with trainers and owners asking too much of them while they’re still babies.
1995, 15 runners, 5 April/May foals – all unplaced
1996, 20 runners, 5 – 2 placed
1997, 13 runners, 4 – 1 placed
1998, 15 runners, 6 – 1 won, 1 placed
1999, 16 runners, 7 – 1 won, other 6 unplaced
2000, 15 runners, 2 – both unplaced
2001, 12 runners, 3 – all unplaced
2002, 12 runners, 4 – all unplaced
2003, 20 runners, 9 – 1 placed, other 8 unplaced
2004, 14 runners, 7 – all unplaced
2005, 13 runners, 5 – all unplaced
2006, 18 runners, 7 – 1 placed (Dylan Thomas), other 6 unplaced (Hala Bek would maybe have won)
2007, 17 runners, 7 – all unplaced (3 of them finished right out the back)
2008, 16 runners, 2 – both unplaced
2009, 12 runners, 4 – 1 won, other 3 unplacedNow if you look through those 77 April/May/June foals, yup, 3 won; High Rise, Oath and Sea The Stars. The former 2 won appalling renewals and were both poor while the latter is very obviously high class and one of the best we’ve seen for a while.
Only 6 others were placed; Silver Patriarch, Alamshar, Dylan Thomas, Shantou, City Honours and Dushyantor. The former 4 all went on to Group 1 glory with the first 3 all extremely good. City Honours didn’t get a chance to race after the Irish Derby (finished 2nd again) and Dushyantor came twice within a length of winning a Group 1.
Even a few of the AMJ foals to finish 4th were very good – Percussionist, Hala Bek, Norse Dancer (obviously a few bad ones too).
So that’s a 3-6-68 record for AMJ foals. Now the record of AMJ foals in the 2000 Guineas; 1-9-63 with Sea The Stars the only winner. Admittedly the vast majority of the placed AMJ foals were poor but Oratorio unplaced, Horatio Nelson unplaced, David Junior unplaced, Nayef unplaced.
The same is kind of true of the fillies. I made Rainbow View a stone-wall lay because of her May 21st foaling date. Before this year they were 0-1-17 with Petrushka the only placed MJ foal and she couldn’t even beat Lahan. MJ foals have also struggled in the Oaks. 17 Jan foals have run in it since 1995, 47 February foals, 47 March foals, 44 April foals and 17 May foals. Incidentally the May foals are 1-2-14 and the Jan foals 0-2-15.
(I may be wrong but the lack of January foals I’d put down to the breeding season not really getting into full swing for mares to be giving birth by then. Certainly the January foal figures for the Derby are low too. Just 5 runners between 1995 and 2005 (only Walk in the Park placed) and 1-2-7 since then (Sir Percy the winner, Masterofthehorse and Casual Conquest the placed))
AMJ foals (only MJ for the fillies) are simply not strong enough and developed enough when the major Classics come round to be effective in strong renewals.
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