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Agreed, Escobar has by far the best chance tomorrow. I rate him dead on 50%. I’ve backed Sir Dancealot ew @ 12/1 with a saver on the fav. Wouldn’t take Frankuus as a good form line though. Improved greatly with an increased test of stamina last time out. 1m on soft for a two year old is very different to 7f on good-firm when meeting Escobar. If looking at that mile Haydock race, Frankuus in danger of being swallowed up before staying on in determined style in the final (extra) furlong. imo There’s no way Frankuus ran to his best against Escobar.
It was a good performance at Newbury, won impressively, but what did Escoar beat in a four horse race? Frankuus outpaced, Amabilis disappointed and the other runner (2nd) Mr Scaramanga was beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Escobar. Yet was 5 3/4 lengths 3rd behind War Decree in the Champagne. Albeit the Hugo Palmer horse won with a bit in hand. Escobar has potential and we should see what he’s capable of tomorrow.
Both Escobar and Seven Heavens are available @ a top price of 25/1 for the 2000 Guineas. I’ll have my Seven Heavens against your Escobar, Steve.
Value Is EverythingThese days the market is all over the Palmer runners. Ante-post is about the only chance of attaining a price. No doubt the owner will be hoping this one doesn’t go the way of Ivawood.
Escobar is by far the most likely winner unless he takes a backward step but at 1/1 I wouldn’t want to get involved.
There is always a chance that one of the maiden winners might take a big step and of those I would side with Ultimate Avenue. He wasn’t cheap and looks to have a bit of scope.
I like Ultimate Avenue as a prospect and he’s over-priced at 16/1.
Comparing him with Whitecliffsofdover it is clear that the disparity in the odds is purely due to the connections.
The big difference is that all eleven subsequent runs from the O’Brien horse’s last race have resulted in unplaced finishes, while five winners came from Ultimate Avenue’s last race.
Larchmont Lad was only beaten narrowly in Listed Class last time but I am not sure how strong a heat that was and the stable are 5/90 this past fortnight and were 4/100 last week for the two week period at that time.
I’ll just stick with Escobar, it’s a race he needs to win reasonably well to justify the trainer’s high expectations and Hugo Palmer seems confident there is more to come.
If having a saver, it would be Ultimate Avenue at 16/1.
I think Whitecliffsofdover needs to take a strong leap forward to warrant the odds he is given the form of his last race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well that was dire. If that’s as good as Escobar is then they can cancel plans for the Guineas right now. He just never looked like picking up at all and was very weak in the betting.
I doubt this was much of a race and that was a waste of time following Hugo Palmer’s big opinion of Escobar, who would have struggled to beat Eeyore today.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s easy to be caught up with hype from stables, Steve. When a trainer wins a Classic (2000 Guineas) with one he’s always thought a lot of as a two year old (Galileo Gold) not so long ago – it’s very easy for him to over-estimate how good this year’s two year old prospective 2000 Guineas contender is.
It may be the same sort of thing with Richard Fahy and Queen Kindly. The filly has already beaten one odds-on chance in the Lowther and seems to be over-estimating her chance of beating another odds-on shot.
Wouldn’t totally give up on Escobar, he’s certainly better than what he achieved today. They are not machines and still has scope to do better. However, as I said – his breeding is some way short of top class.
Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t totally give up on Ultimate Avenue although I would be more enthusiastic if he were a little more straightforward. Given the trainer’s pre-race talk I am guessing they might throw a dart at next season’s Craven.
He looked to be sweating more than anything else. Not a good sign. He broke well and I have no idea why Baker didn’t send him forward as per Newbury. For me as a punter Baker is a jock you either want on the front or back, not in the trenches. Restrained, the horse didn’t settle and once under pressure both horse and jockey looked pretty clueless.
It’s end of season stuff and bookmakers appear to be writing their own results. Fancied horses in the first three races running somewhere between very poor and shocking. Not even as if you could use the ground as any excuse.
Yeah that was a shocker from Escobar. I think as Ginger says the breeding isn’t that great. But is the breeding that good with Larchmont Lad either?
Having looked at two year old races far more than usual this year the one thing I can say with assurance is that these two year olds can throw in absolute stinkers with no apparent reason for it. Wouldn’t write him off.
I think the tattersalls is a race the hannons have done well with over the years although I might be wrong.
Yeah that was a shocker from Escobar. I think as Ginger says the breeding isn’t that great. But is the breeding that good with Larchmont Lad either?
Having looked at two year old races far more than usual this year the one thing I can say with assurance is that these two year olds can throw in absolute stinkers with no apparent reason for it. Wouldn’t write him off.
I think the tattersalls is a race the hannons have done well with over the years although I might be wrong.
My breeding comment was not meant as a negative for today, Judge.
Although I could see Escobar possibly improving in to a Group 3 winner (today) or even Group 2 (in future)… I’d be a little surprised if Escobar’s breeding enabled him to win a Classic. Ditto Larchmont Lad.Value Is EverythingHannon was happy enough with Larchmont Lad and views him as a guineas horse and saying he needed the run both mentally and psychically at Doncaster.
The horse I like from his yard Eqtiraan has had his sights lowered somewhat, didn’t run in the Champagne stakes and whilst holding entries for the Royal Lodge and Dewhurst has another entry now at next week at Salisbury in the BATHWICK TYRES CONDITIONS STAKES (Plus 10 Race) over 6 furlongs. I think the six is what he needs for now to help learn him to settle.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Interesting that Ryan Moore is riding peace envoy over intelligence cross in the middle park. I know he ran a blinder in the morny but thought intelligence cross looked top notch on its last run.
Urban Fox narrowly held Unforgetable Filly.
As I had said, it was a question of the form in the book vs the more lightly raced potential. I didn’t imagine there would be much in it but the sexier profile won out with backers and Urban Fox was 11/4 compared to Unforgetable Filly on 11/10.
Looking at the upcoming Rockfel and Middle Park, Fair Eva is odds on at around 4/7, after being available at 11/10 earlier. I’ll just be watching this with a view to next season.
In the Middle Park it seems concerning that Intelligence Cross is right out to 8/1 now and that suggests to me that the fact that Ryan is on Peace Envoy, rather than what looked the colt with the best credentials, has most people believing that the more experienced colt is the stable number one. If Blue Point runs to his Gimcrack form I reckon he will win with a bit in hand here.
You can’t beat punters as a group though. Aidan O’Brien’s full brother to Gleneagles, Taj Mahal, was warm favourite on debut, seemingly regarded as one of the stable’s best prospects. He ran a pretty grim race that day and I vowed to put a pen through him if he didn’t win on his second start.
He started favourite again in his next race and was beaten again, although he was not as bad as his debut.
A third time he ran and a third time he was favourite, it seemed destined that a third time he would lose and we were not surprised when he did.
Even Lionel Richie stopped at “Three times a lady” but the punters went for fourth time lucky in Taj Mahal’s 4th race. Favourite for the 4th time on the trot, he duly managed to rack up that 4th defeat and by now his fans were surely selling the Big Issue outside the betting offices of the country.
For his 5th start Taj Mahal came to Newmarket today, maybe the day over the water would help, but just in case they decided to stick the visor on for the first time. Just when you thought he would be the last horse to back at shortish odds, he manages to go off favourite for the 5th time at 9/4. Would he finally break his duck? Does 7th count as first if you play your joker? No, oh well that’s him on BF5 from 5 starts.
Why do punters do this to themselves?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It does seem bizarre Steve that he would go off favourite. I think most punters just see Moore, O’Brien and think “I’ll have that”
Whereas you don’t really need the benefit of hindsight to see it’s a shocking price.
I tend to go with the more unexposed types like Jac where they might be progressive, but you’re right it’s all about judgement.
Disappointing day with both Unforgetable Filly and Escobar going down for Hugo Palmer but great day for Frankel with his Eminent hosing up in the first and beating some top rated two year olds including Taj Mahal and the well thought of Okool both disappointing today. To me Taj Mahal didn’t impress in the paddock and he did get hampered in the race but was going nowhere at the time, I think Ryan Moore eased him up after that.
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The two horses apart from the winner that caught my eye in the pre-parade and paddock today were Charlie Appleby’s Alqamar (3rd)who was sweating up in the paddock and was having trouble behind (like he’d had a curry the night before… to be polite
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Taking all that into consideration he ran a good race and if he keeps off the curry he could win next time out.Also Prince Khalid’s Beach Break (unplaced) trained by Ralph Beckett who was the best looking horse in the race but looked as though he needed it, he was backed in from 25’s to 16’s by the off so a lot of support, would expect him to be much closer next time…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...It does seem bizarre Steve that he would go off favourite. I think most punters just see Moore, O’Brien and think “I’ll have that”
Whereas you don’t really need the benefit of hindsight to see it’s a shocking price.
I tend to go with the more unexposed types like Jac where they might be progressive, but you’re right it’s all about judgement.
It’s true judge and I don’t know why but I always want to take on Moore and O’Brien horses
I think the only time I really ever had a good winner from that coupling was when Gleneagles won the 2000 Guineas and you are right the punters do lump on when O’Brien runs a horse especially at Newmarket.Like you say it is more rewarding to look for one or two that could progress.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Palmer tweeted that Escobar scoped dirty
Thanks for putting that up Joe.
Thought there must be a reason.
Good of Palmer to tell everyone.
Trainer has been in form, but noticed one or two disappointing in the last few days.Value Is EverythingOften assumed it’s the public that’s betting these Coolmore horses in to favourite. As Vic would say, I don’t believe it. In reality, I think it only takes those bookie chappies to see one or two bets struck for “the lads” and a horse shortens dramatically, often going off favourite when its form doesn’t deserve such respect.
It really does not take much money to shorten a horse up, depends more on who’s backing it than how much.
Value Is Everything
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