- This topic has 783 replies, 45 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
From recollection the Firth Of Clyde has been something of a bookmakers benefit in recent years.
The front two look clear best to me but the market (thus far) appears to be suggesting they are going to get turned over again.
I think Bletchley should have won the Albany but she has disappointed since and the winner herself has done nothing for the form. Today’s conditions look suitable but you have to wonder if she might have regressed.
If pushed I would side with Partitia. She is very, very weak in the market. The issue with her is probably the stiff six on ground with some cut. Hopefully, she will still travel well enough and Smullen will utilise her speed and try and clear away rather than being clever and just sitting on the bridle for as long as possible.
In Sobetsu’s race I prefer the Stoute filly for the following reasons:-
I think Interweave is more certain to come forward from he first start. Sometimes these Godolphin fillies youngsters don’t come forward as much as you would think. Michael Stoute has had a few this year that took a good leap forward for a run and he’s patient with his young horses.
Looking at Sobetsu, the form looks solid but after reading the Timeform preview I watched her race several times and could not agree that she was as short of room as they suggested. I felt she lost prime position due to not travelling as well as some and don’t feel she was disadvantaged so much as not quite having the pace.
Interweave probably bumped into a smart filly in Argenterie last time. The Stoute horse was a bit green but she got the hang of it and was staying on in the style that would suggest this test will suit today. Improvement is highly likely and the clincher is the better odds available today.
One of these two may be potentially smart and there’s not a lot to choose but I think the Stoute filly may edge this in the final furlong today and 5/2 looks the deciding factor.
I’ve done an across the card double with Mekhtaal at Maisons-Laffitte he was a shade disappointing last time after the bad run where he was held up, having made all the time before. Dropped to Group 3 today I’ll be disappointed if he can’t win and I took 11/10 but 11/8 was available on Betfair this morning. I make him a 4/5 shot at best in this company, although some might see him as questionable today.
I’ll trust Rouget to have him right today.
1.35 Newmarket Interweave 5/2
1.35 Maisons Laffitte Mekhtaal 11/10 is my Bamber Gascoigne starter for 10 (pence) double today.Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve done Bletchley today. I feel her form is far stronger and 3/1 was a fair price.
Partitia has won her last two but nothing has won from 19 runs since in those two races.
Bletchley has form with Roly Poly and Queen Kindly and they were the first two home in the Lowther. I just feel her form is the best on offer here and she is worth one more chance.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Wow! Sobetsu!!! That was jaw-dropping.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Easy for Sobetsu there, well done Jac.
She was always travelling better than the Stoute filly, who was weak in the betting.
It didn’t matter for my double, as Mekhtaal got pipped by the Haggas horse in France. That’s it for me with Mekhtaal now, he ran from the front today but couldn’t sustain his lead to the line.
As they say in France “Tres Merde”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yeah shouldn’t have gone against you there Jac.
Normally I get annoyed when I back a loser but nothing I could have done there. Wow that was impressive, most impressive maiden winner of the year for me.
Surely that put’s it in the frame for the 1000. Should get further as well based on breeding, no reason why I can’t get aimed at the oaks as well.
Stilvi called it with the “Bookies Benefit”
Partitia at least ran something like her race but Bletchley was never at the races. Looked laughable to consider that she finished ahead of Lowther winner Queen Kindly when runner up to Brave Anna. Mick Fitzgerald tipped Bletchley and I had my ticket already half-way in the bin at that moment.
Like Amabilis, Bletchley seems to be on the decline with her races.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yeah shouldn’t have gone against you there Jac.
Normally I get annoyed when I back a loser but nothing I could have done there. Wow that was impressive, most impressive maiden winner of the year for me.
Surely that put’s it in the frame for the 1000. Should get further as well based on breeding, no reason why I can’t get aimed at the oaks as well.
Are you a two year old filly then Judge? I’ll lay you at 5000/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sobetsu shouldn’t have a problem with ten furlongs but after that there is a bit of guesswork involved. No matter how impressive she was today I think ideally you would like to see a Guineas filly breaking her maiden over a shorter trip? She was different class today but against quicker fillies such as the one we saw yesterday it is going to be a lot tougher. Probably the biggest question mark regarding the Classics is whether Godolphin can actually get her to the starting line. Their record in recent years has been pretty dreadful.
Partitia never travelled and worrying cocked her head to one side. I guess they might try to give her one more chance on a faster surface but I suspect we may well have already seen the best of both her and Bletchley. No arguing with the winner though who seemed to win with any amount in hand.
Rich history 2.50 Gowran must be the most interesting two year old running tomorrow. Half brother to free eagle and other very good horses.
Rich history 2.50 Gowran must be the most interesting two year old running tomorrow. Half brother to free eagle and other very good horses.
Rich History is around about joint favourite tomorrow on 4/1.
He did hold a National Stakes entry but probably didn’t come to hand in time to run in that one. Judging by the betting, it should be a three way shout with Rekindling and World War.
Rekindling was second to Capri on his debut and that run was encouraging and probably just about sets the standard here. The winner went in again and others have won from that race. This son of High Chaparral should come forward from that start, where he wasn’t expected, with odds of 28/1.
World War is by Galileo out of Jacqueline Quest and he ran behind Douglas MacArthur, where he was beaten a fair old way. Douglas MacArthur was an expensive failure next time out and I feel Rekindling’s race looks more solid.
I would estimate that Rich History will need to run to 90 or more to win this race on debut.
I am tempted by Rekindling at 4/1 with the concern being how quiet the Wachman stable are, only 5 runners this past fortnight and one winner from those.
In the fillies race earlier, Wayside Flower has the best form in the book. She ran the ill fated Cuff close first time, before being more comprehensively beaten in 4th behind the same filly in Listed class next time. The second favourite there, Bound, has run 4 times for Aidan without winning and is behind the more lightly raced favourite on RPRs.
The crux of this for me is Wayside Flower stepping up from 6F to a mile. I like them to go 6-7-8 ideally as a progression and this is 33% further to cover at a mile, compared to the 6F.
If this were 7F I would have Wayside Flower a fairly short favourite for this.
9/4 is just about enough to tempt a bet and risk that she will last a mile.
Rekindling 4/1
Wayside Flower 9/4Two singles and a double for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Weld is on fire though so that increases the confidence in Rich History.
Just slightly offputting that it’s making it’s debut at Gowran park.
Would it be wrong to suggest that most of these trainers like O’Brien, Weld Bolger etc will try to start their very best juveniles at Grade A tracks? Like Curragh and Leopardstown?
The interesting thing about this horse for me is that it’s the first time this mare, who has already done so well, has had a horse with a top top sire.
Before she’s had some very good horses but not with a super sire like Dubawi. I must admit not being a big form man I looked at some of the videos and the one who impressed me the most was World War, although it’s probably one of (my many) flaws as a punter that I don’t put a lot of store in form.
San Remo I wouldn’t completely discount either, we saw another one of Frankels, Swiss Storm make a huge step forward today and San Remo is very well related.
The long absence would just put me off this Wild Flower. Other than that her credentials are outstanding
I’m reluctant to take you on Steve as you seem in such devastating form, although as I haven’t had any bets yet perhaps I won’t anyway…
Thanks Steve and Judge, Sobetsu was my best bet today. She is a well developed filly and certainly came on even more than I expected for her last race. They kept the covers on her most of the time she was in the paddock today as it was wet, windy and cold at Newmarket.
I was knocked out by her 10 length victory today..wish they were all that easy.
Thanks to Joe for explaining LTO to Kentucky Spring…I didn’t realise I used it so much…Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Wayside Flower ran a funny sort of race, never really getting into it as the Weld filly ran out a ready winner. Ger Lyons isn’t in the best of form and I doubt Wayside Flower ran to her 90 rating today.
Double checking the Lyons form shows he’s 1/18 and 6% strike rate the past fortnight. I should have probably have left Wayside Flower.
In the colts race Rich History made no impact. He was pushed along fairly early and didn’t make much impression, he was 6th, beaten 11 and a half lengths.
I felt Rich History had enough on to warrant being 9/4 fav and was amazed to see Rekindling go right out to 7/1. Rekindling made most of the running and stayed on strongly, pulling away at the finish to win by two and a half lengths from World War.
I’ll take one out of two and move on.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As expected, Caravaggio is not running in The Middle Park on Saturday. In his absence Blue Point is a best priced 6/4 and as low as 11/10 in places.
Intelligence Cross is still in the picture for O’Brien and is 6/1, with Mehmas the narrow 2nd Fav at 5/1.
It’s been a busy season for Mehmas and taking on Churchill over 7F looked like the combination of the trip and number of runs were catching up with him. He will need to be tough and at the top of his game to confirm form with the upwardly mobile Godolphin colt who has been labelled a sprinter by his trainer.
I’ve got Blue Point at 5/1 and that would help off-set Firmament not contesting the Cambridgeshire. Don’t know why, but the ante-post favourite hasn’t held his ground for Saturday’s race.
Fair Eva is generally 11/10 Fav for Friday’s Rockfel with Godolphin’s Wuheida the general 4/1 second favourite. There has been a bit of excitement about how well Michael Stoute’s filly Spatial’s form has been working out, particularly Sobetsu hosing up last Saturday and it is worth bearing in mind that Wuheida beat Spatial when the two made their debuts.
I am not going to back Fair Eva this time around as I see no value at the odds and something to prove after the Lowther.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Caravaggio will not run again this season. The stable said they have run out of time for him this season after he tweaked a muscle.
It seems a bit much that a muscle tweak has kept him out for the season and I just wonder if we will ever see him again. The Guineas looks a doubtful target and I have a bad feeling regarding the future for this colt.
A handful of firms have still got Caravaggio in the Dewhurst betting but most have done the decent thing and pulled him from the list.
I have backed South Seas for the Dewhurst. I had seen him as more of a Racing Post Trophy horse but it seems like connections are keen to go to the Dewhurst, where Churchill is odds-on.
South Seas has done nothing wrong though and if there is mud on the day, it would suit him more than Churchill I would think. I like South Seas as a value bet at 8/1 for that race.
Dewhurst South Seas 8/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.