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Churchill is definitely in the giants causeway mould and already looks a tough horse. He won very easily and already looks a mile /10 f horse with the derby distance looking possible given his style of running. He clearly is improving a lot with each race and looks the one they have to beat in the guineas. Not sure what to make of the moyglare but the going and the wind could have played a part. Hydrangea looks a tough genuine horse and looks an oaks candidate to me. The fillies mile could tell us a lot but the first three look good fillies who will be on the premises come the guineas.
Promise To Be True never ran her race today. She had beaten today’s winner cosily the last time they met.
It’s a case of seeing if she goes for the Fillies Mile now but The Racing Post put her down as 6 lbs below her last race, when logic, jockey booking and the betting all suggested she should have been stepping forwards rather than back today.
Churchill ran well and deserves to be Guineas favourite with nothing that is much cop looking like they will stay the Guineas mile next season.
To my eyes Mehmas weakened in seventh furlong today. He’s also had enough races and ones where he’s been competing at the top level.
He won’t get a mile and maybe on the cusp career wise now.
Today’s race looked a virtual match, Mehmas gave as good as he was getting for a fair way and Churchill asserted as his rival weakened.
I couldn’t be taking Churchill at 5/1 when Gleneagles was still 14/1 after being first past the post in the Lagardere. There is some dross in that Guineas market and I feel it worth remembering that Alexios Komnenos gave Churchill a bit of a fright when they met. In my opinion, the Stack horse is a horse they should be thinking about putting in the Guineas but I am not sure he is entered. He is entered in the Irish version and was originally set to take on Churchill today but he holds an entry in the Beresford, so he may pop up there.
Landfall had his mark raised to 110 after flooring hotpot Douglas MacArthur. He looks a horse worth keeping an eye on. He dwarfed the O’Brien horse in terms of physique. He must surely be aimed towards a Classic long term and is also in the Beresford.
Looking forward it seems clear that Exemplar is well underrated on RPR of 88 after his 5 length win, combined to almost catching Landfall, now rated 110 when they made their debuts.
In the Mill Reef on Saturday, I want to take on ante-post favourite Rich And Famous. I am not keen on Mark Johnston and this 1/2 Newmarket winner has seen the form of his win look nothing special, with moderate efforts from the other participants since.
Intelligence Cross catches the eye at 6/1 for this race but you would have to doubt that he was going to run given those odds. Simon Crisford’s Mokkaris is in the mix but is described as a horse who needs fast ground. These two would be my shortlist at this stage until I get more information regarding plans.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The English Guineas doesn’t open for entries til Spring next year Steve so plenty of time for Stack to have a think.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Landfall is a gelding, he won’t be running in any Classics.
Unless there is a late decision on Caravaggio to run, which is very unlikely, Intelligence Cross will run in the Middle Park the following weekend.Loved the way Churchill battled back against Alexios Komnenos when he almost caught him out flying home late and unexpectedly, that was when I first rated the horse, he proved he had guts as well as ability.
Trip i do post here a bit i give you my darkhorses for next season when flat season ends there still maiden races to come at Nottingham also Yarmouth 1m races chuck the odd star out to. and maiden races in Ireland as well.Churchill my main horse and been on about him since 6f debut.
Steve what your views on Rain Goddess who go to AOB yard next year won at 50/1 at weekend if she not run again this year she be my darkhorse from Ireland
I’ll look forward to your dark horses Darren as always
I know you asked Steve but can I Just say a word about the beautifully bred RAIN GODDESS who won at Leopardstown on Saturday..WOW
Galileo out of a Danehill Dancer mare (Where) winning her maiden first time out, can only get better.
An exciting prospect for the new season, owned by the golden triangle, almost as if they hid her away at the Wachman yard she certainly kicked up a storm on Saturday…wish her luck for the coming season and definitely one for the notebook. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...David Wachman usually gets the more backward ones, and she has no fancy entries, but this one may have caught them out, been hiding her light under a bushel 🙂
Interesting article about Churchill – http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10575522/churchill-dont-believe-the-hype
I’m afraid I have to agree.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Interesting to see Laddies shorten Promise To Be True back to 14’s today. Perhaps something has come to light. Her performance yesterday was Toobad To Be True
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The vibes about Promise To Be True are very strong, Michael Dillon of Ladbrokes was singing her praises at the Curragh yesterday, he expected her to be favourite for the 1000 Guineas after the race.
I have been looking at the Derby entries for next year and quite like the breeding of the unraced Crystal Ocean and Nathan Mayer both in training with Sir Michael Stoute and also an Aga Khan owned unraced colt called Sarosh who is in training in France. The only one given an entry in the remaining top 2 year old races is Crystal Ocean who has an entry in the Dewhurst which is only 3 weeks away. Does anyone have any knowledge about these 3 at all?
Landfall is a gelding, he won’t be running in any Classics.
Unless there is a late decision on Caravaggio to run, which is very unlikely, Intelligence Cross will run in the Middle Park the following weekend.Loved the way Churchill battled back against Alexios Komnenos when he almost caught him out flying home late and unexpectedly, that was when I first rated the horse, he proved he had guts as well as ability.
That’s a pity for Landfall. He looks a top prospect. The argument about Geldings in Classics will continue to divide opinion. I feel we should be looking to have the most talented horses battling it out for the sake of quality.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ll look forward to your dark horses Darren as always
I know you asked Steve but can I Just say a word about the beautifully bred RAIN GODDESS who won at Leopardstown on Saturday..WOW
Galileo out of a Danehill Dancer mare (Where) winning her maiden first time out, can only get better.
An exciting prospect for the new season, owned by the golden triangle, almost as if they hid her away at the Wachman yard she certainly kicked up a storm on Saturday…wish her luck for the coming season and definitely one for the notebook. JacI missed Rain Goddess and haven’t had time to catch up yet. I’ll get back to you on this one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting article about Churchill – http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10575522/churchill-dont-believe-the-hype
I’m afraid I have to agree.
I have been making similar comments about Churchill since the start. I have questioned the form since Royal Ascot.
He has been favourite every time he ran, four times odds on. Yes, he has won four from five and he was ultimately a clear winner yesterday but that was virtually a match and the second favourite was a horse with a good excuse at the trip and a reasonable excuse as a busy horse, with less scope and coming back from a minor setback.
When I opposed Churchill with Alexios Komnenos it wasn’t just a case of taking him on for the hell of it, I really felt the Stack horse was way over-priced and could win it. I thought at one stage he was going to do so but not quite.
Churchill has followed the right race path and has so many of his rivals who look like sprinters, that he must be the favourite for the Guineas but at the odds he is I couldn’t play on him. I reneged on the 8/1, so am hardly likely to take 4/1.
Fair play to the punters on at 16/1 etc, that’s a nice price but his odds now seem too short to me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
2/1 Churchill is daft and his form isn’t outstanding but, as is often the case in trying to spot future champs, it ain’t what they do it’s the way that they do it.
He’s been learning slowly all along and yesterday, for the first time imo, he looked like he’d twigged what this is all about. I think we’ll see more enthusiasm and professionalism from him.
Epsom speculators might want to take heed of Ladbrokes being the longest priced of all about him for The Derby. Mike Dillon’s close connection with The Lads is well known.
I kept my eye on the Mill Reef betting and money has come for my two against the field.
Not going to bother mentioning my odds on the two, as aspersions have been cast about the authenticity of the odds I put up in general.
Mokarris was 9/2 and is now 5/4
Intelligence Cross was 6/1 and is now 4/1
If I win I’ll just pick the money up and shut my teeth.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just caught up with Rain Goddess and you had to be impressed with that start.
She was too free early doors, with her head coming up in the air a few times but she settled and came with a good burst to collar Holiday Girl, who is a filly who fairly sticks her neck out.
Holiday Girl was previously beaten further by Holy Cat, who went on to be no match for Intelligence Cross when she was upped in grade. Aidan’s Key To My Heart was having her third start and is clearly limited in her talents, making the overall form look fair, rather than startling.
Rain Goddess was rated 87 for her win by the Racing Post and that’s more than reasonable for her first start. I always feel something near 90 is encouraging for a 2yo on debut and it’s then about the progress they make.
Rain Goddess looks to me that she will improve for this experience and be a filly to train on.
The one cautionary note would be the eerily similar Queen Nefertiti from the Wachman stable.
Galileo filly out of a Danehill Dancer mare, hosed up on her debut at big odds. She seemed to have every prospect for the future but ran another five times without winning again.
Rain Goddess looks an excellent prospect and it will be interesting to see if they raise her significantly in grade next time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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