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Steve, where did you get the info that she cost half a mill? Was it a private sale after she was withdrawn from Tattersalls? I thought it was a partial transfer of ownership, Coolmore usually keep a share in the fillies running in Joseph Allen’s colours.
I think it was on a breeding website I was looking at. Maybe I picked it up wrong but the amount was given at a little under 500 grand.
It doesn’t matter how much they cost to me really. It’s whether they can go a bit and this filly looks decent to me. She posted a Racing Post Rating of 80 for her first effort. The 4th horse there was rubbish next time over further.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Solario stakes today. Looks an interesting race with Majoris in there for the frankel fans. However that was a bad race he won last time and I don’t think he’ll win this.
South seas would be the marginal selection from Equitraan and Seniority.
Gimcrak as well. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Ardad bounce back from a very poor run last time on a track he’s already won on, but again I think the favourite should be hard to beat and actually 2-1 looks like a value price to me. Some said he was disappointing last time but think the extra experience of Mehmas was the decisive factor. Can’t see Blue point not continuing to progress.
So South Seas and Blue Point are my original selections.
Michael Dods sent out a promising type in Bamber Bridge at Hamilton on Thursday. In a 4 runner newcomers’ race he lost 4 lengths at the start but went away in the final 2 furlongs of the 6 furlong contest to win by 6 lengths. An animal that’s worth keeping tabs on going forward.
Difficult to judge with a group of newcomers, but second and third come from stables that know the time of day with two-year-olds and both Hee-Haw and X Rated should win races.
Rob
I posted about the Solario last night but somehow it didn’t go through.
Anyway, the gist of it was that I felt Eqtiraan was the value at 10/1 each-way.
South Seas faces a but better ground this time and his last win was at 1/5 from horses who have run unplaced since then.Majoris was raised heavily after proving the assessor wrong in an embarrassing nursery romp by 7l off a mark of 76.
Majoris at 8/1 was fair value against the favourite but I just felt the Hannon colt would improve and the runner up in his debut win hosed home yesterday.
It’s an interesting contest with enough dangers to the favourite to have made 2/1 look skinny for the Balding colt in this company on the bit better ground today.
Eqtiraan should improve and it was interesting that Luca Cumani runs Total Star here rather than in a nursery.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jean-Claude Rouget’s Brametot runs at Deauville today in Listed company.
He won his 1st two starts at the track and is rated 95 by The Racing Post after his first two successes. He is a hot favourite today and is clearly expected to stake this rise in class in his stride.
He races at a mile this time and he looks an interesting prospect.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sandown has a strong headwind which puts an added emphasis on stamina. Eqtiraan has speed on both sides of his pedigree and imo doubtful he’ll stay this trip in conditions. Going seems good and it’ll be interesting how South Seas runs, so far has only soft ground form but looks to have a lot of potential. Balding’s first time out winners usually go on to be very good. imo around 3/1 is value. Also done Monticello who’s been nibbled at in the market. However, am not as confident of his chance, hope Fanning can save something from the front. Saved on Majoris and Total Star, it might of been a low mark the Frankel colt won off last time, but margin of victory means level of performance was a lot better than the mark he ran off. It was in a fast time too. In form Cumani running Total Star in a Group 3 when it has a low mark for Nurseries is indeed interesting.
Value Is EverythingJean-Claude Rouget’s Brametot runs at Deauville today in Listed company.
He won his 1st two starts at the track and is rated 95 by The Racing Post after his first two successes. He is a hot favourite today and is clearly expected to stake this rise in class in his stride.
He races at a mile this time and he looks an interesting prospect.
Well Brametot was stuffed at 1/3 so that seems to leave him with plenty to prove. Today’s winner High Alpha was only 4th on debut and had 17 lbs to find with the favourite on RPR. That’s racing for you !
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can’t believe how green Eqtiraan was.
He may not have beaten today’s winner but it surely cost him 2nd place.
South Seas looks talented but to me runs like he will appreciate the cut in the ground.
Majoris took some hike for winning his Nursery and looked like this was too much for him..
I hope Blue Point goes well in the next, I don’t like the Gimcrack but I hope he can cope with this sprinters race and/or show that further is better. I backed him for the Guineas as Caravaggio is unlikely for that in my opinion.
I wasn’t as impressed with Caravaggio last time and he bypasses the Morny tomorrow, which is a negative for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sounds as if Blue Point will be ridden with more restraint. Think he may be the best horse for the future here, but a rival with a prominent position may well prove difficult to beat on the straight course due to the strong tail wind.
Not a race to bet on beforehand but might play in-running after half a furlong.
Value Is EverythingSending Caravaggio to the Prix Morny would have been a negative for me, it would have been an indication that they see him as another Johannesburg, a horse to pick up as many 2yo G1s as possible, rather than having an eye to the future. Not to mention that the race is just 2 weeks after the Phoenix. They would also be keen to let Peace Envoy have a shot at a G1, to advertise Power, even finishing a good second to Lady Aurelia would be a good result for him.
I don’t think Caravaggio would have been wound up for the Phoenix, they would have known that the competition would be weak, and they wouldn’t have been looking for a flashy display, he had already set the bar high in the Coventry.
Class performnce by Blue Point. Hope the boys in blue take the boys in dark blue on in the Middle Park. Best two 2 year old colts look sprinters. Caravaggio V Blue Point would be a race to savour. Fingers crossed both remain sound.
Value Is EverythingSending Caravaggio to the Prix Morny would have been a negative for me, it would have been an indication that they see him as another Johannesburg, a horse to pick up as many 2yo G1s as possible, rather than having an eye to the future. Not to mention that the race is just 2 weeks after the Phoenix. They would also be keen to let Peace Envoy have a shot at a G1, to advertise Power, even finishing a good second to Lady Aurelia would be a good result for him.
I don’t think Caravaggio would have been wound up for the Phoenix, they would have known that the competition would be weak, and they wouldn’t have been looking for a flashy display, he had already set the bar high in the Coventry.
I reckon they were cautious of the Wesley Ward filly. Just something about the way that Caravaggio finished his race off last time had me wondering if he’d run below his previous form. Being by Scat Daddy is a question for next season and perhaps it might just be that they will go Middle Park and nothing else with Caravaggio this season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
They are obviously bypassing the National Stakes, and the Jean-Luc Lagardere is now 8f, so their only real option to test him over 7f this year is the Dewhurst, and you would think that they would test him once this year. It may depend on Churchill, If he proves himself to be a proper Guineas horse in the Futurity and National Stakes, it’s possible he will go to the Dewhurst instead.
Coolmore have Caravaggio, Churchill and War Decree. Unless they go to France with one of the latter pair the obvious targets seem to be Caravaggio Middle Park, Churchill Dewhurst and War Decree Racing Post. It’s also possible Coolmore will give the 2000 Guinaes a swerve with Caravaggio in favour of sprinting if fairly sure of winning with other Ballydoyle inmates at Newmarket. Blue Point might go for the Dewhurst to swerve the Coventry winner. Of the two, the Godolphin colt has imo a better chance of staying a mile next year, but I’d still bet against both of them doing so.
Value Is EverythingInteresting test for Churchill tomorrow. Track should certainly suit but got two good rivals in Capri and Lancaster Bomber. Think Lancaster Bomber is underrated and Arcada should also not be completely overlooked, his form is very good and beat the other two I mentioned at this same track.
Think we’ll learn a lot more about Churchill and whether he’s a genuine contender for the 2,000.
I have backed Blue Point for the Middle Park at 5/1. I think he’ll go close whatever turns up and there is just that slight concern for me with Caravaggio now.
It sounds like the Godolphin team have pretty much already ruled Blue Point out of being a miler next season and it could be that Churchill is the only one of the market leaders actually able to get a mile next season.
I have done South Seas at 25/1 for the Derby, there will be some doubts on him getting the trip but most of those in the race betting are joke value, for example Blue Point at 33/1
If South Seas steps up to a mile successfully, his odds for Epsom will collapse and he looks potentially top class. Hopefully he can do better at 3yo than the similar Elm Park. There’s a dearth of talent in the Derby field at the moment and it seems fair to assume there is scope for South Seas to be much shorter for the Classic by season’s end.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting test for Churchill tomorrow. Track should certainly suit but got two good rivals in Capri and Lancaster Bomber. Think Lancaster Bomber is underrated and Arcada should also not be completely overlooked, his form is very good and beat the other two I mentioned at this same track.
Think we’ll learn a lot more about Churchill and whether he’s a genuine contender for the 2,000.
I think Churchill needs to win this quite well tomorrow.
His success in the Chesham doesn’t look great, with horses such as Isomer, Cunco and Frankuus hardly looking anything special since and Mr Scaramanga was also bobbins in Cunco’s race at Salisbury yesterday.
The only winner from the Chesham other than Churchill was Isomer, who won a maiden at 1/5 Fav. Even in Churchill’s next race, he got a fright at odds of 2/5 as Alexios Komnenos got to within a neck of creating an upset.
Churchill is being heralded as the second coming in some parts but I don’t see it yet and the odds are poor based on what he has done.
I am not struck on Lancaster Bomber, he was all out last time and Arcada will struggle to confirm with Capri, who was making his debut behind Joey’s more experienced colt.
At the odds tomorrow I would go with Capri over Churchill, even though I am not sure his last win was that strong. It could be a messy affair and if I were on Capri I would be trying to go from the front and see how good Churchill actually is. Perhaps long term Churchill will be better but second fav for the Guineas looks poor on what he has done so far. In his favour may be that the better ones are looking dubious for next years mile races.
Capri at 3/1 for me tomorrow.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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