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Done! All the information for 473 Derby entrants done. However, at the top of the website it says there are 478 entrants…there’s a ‘DOUBTFUL’ entry which I’ve not included, which leaves 4 missing…I’m going to go through all my information to double-check everything.
At first glance there are 208 qualifiers.
Among Equals runs tonight for Joesph and seems to have a bit of a reputation at home with a big plunge early morning prices and 4/6 with Ladbrokes. By Oasis Dream
Aidan was 1/17 at Cork with 2yos so quite why he was that price I don’t know. Looks a bad race looking at the bare result.
Gatepost into 8s with Coral now.
5 days later and no change, Gatepost still the highest rated horse by some margin and the only qualifiers on my trends. Wise Venture hasn’t even been given a RPR yet for his maiden win on Friday, frustrating, but it won’t be in the 90s I wouldn’t have thought. St Barths would absolutely be the one to take out of that race anyway. If he’s not the best horse to come out of that race I’ll be amazed.
My trends also suggest that you need to have run more than 20 days ago. The race falls on June 14th this year so we’re after a horse that runs on or before May 24th.
Aidan has a very poor record in the race if you consider how many runners he’s had. Since the Coventry became a Group 2 he’s run 10 horses and just Henrythenavigator has won and actually was the only one to finish in the top 3. Rock of Gibraltar ran in the race before it became a Group 2 and he only came 6th.
12 runners foaled after April 14th have run and all 12 finished unplaced. An April 7th foal (Hellvelyn, 1st in 2006) is the youngest horse to finish in the top 3 in any renewal since becoming a Group 2. An April 3rd foal finished 2nd the previous year.
Once-raced horses must have won and achieved a RPR of 95+. Twice-raced horses must have won last time out and achieved a RPR of 98+.
There’s no real strong breeding trend, you just need a sire that performed well as a 2yo.
The fillies’ races have never particularly interested me, and it’s no chance this year, especially with Wesley Ward sending over a couple again. I’d have thought that Lily’s Angel and Miss Work Of Art would both get outpaced over Ascot’s 5f.
Bannock was impressive last week and looked good again tonight and should go well in the Norfolk but something should be able to do him for a turn of foot. It’s again not a race I’ve ever cared about. Once-rated horses with a rating of above 90 do well. Silverheels would qualify on that basis.
Gatepost now favourite with Stan James and has been backed into a best priced 8/1 now. Wise Venture given a RPR of 83 for his new at Newbury on Friday. Steve Taplin’s 2yo book finally arrived yesterday and Gatepost is in Steve’s Fifty to Follow. Channon’s quoted as saying ‘A lovely horse…He’s good looking and I like him a lot, I think he’s a bloody nice horse and one of the better ones.’
As far as I can tell, none of the other 49 are in the hunt for the Coventry as of yet. I think they’ll need to be bloody good to beat Gatepost though, this boy just flew on his last start.
Power won but i get the feeling he isn’t the real deal. Maybe he be better over 6f….i love that horse in 2nd though a real impressive animal he is.
The fillies maiden at the Curragh will be hard to assess until another month when they all run but again Bolger is the man to follow so far re 2yr olds
Beaten comfortably by a stablemate into 4th.
St Barths was very unimpressive winning there & was reluctant to enter the stalls.
On the face of it Power was very unimpressive, but the front 2 pulled well clear of a well-backed horse & the horse he beat was a winner first time out over 5f & recorded a high RPR of 91. I’m still not interested in his Ascot chances as he rarely runs a good horse in the Marble Hill & his 2yo Ascot strikerate is abysmal. He hasn’t been given a RPR for Saturday yet.
Wow. Power’s been given a RPR of 103.
Red Clubs and Hellvelyn had RPRs of 101 and 100 respectively before victory at Ascot.
Pencil Hill was given a 105RPR in 2007 after winning the Marble Hill but flopped into 4th.
Samuel Morse was given a 100RPR last year after winning the Marble Hill and also flopped into 4th.
I don’t really know what to make of Power. Aidan’s first 3 2yo Royal Ascot winners, Harbour Master, Fasliyev and Landseer, all had 2 previous runs.
J’burg, Statue of Liberty and Henrythenavigator, his last 3, all had 1.
One thing I would say is that it’s rare for his better horses to have had 2 runs beforehand. I wouldn’t have thought Power would develop into a 2000 Guineas contender.
Reply is POTENTIALLY interesting, but that’s doubtful. Aidan used to like the 2yo maiden he won yesterday – Oratorio won it, George Washington won it, Eagle Mountain won it, One Cool Cat was a non-runner. But between 2006 and 2010 he ran utter rubbish. Master of Hounds is the best horse he ran and all the others escape me already – that’s how good they were.
He’s not bred dissimarly to a half-brother sprinter of his by Mozart and his breeding certainly doesn’t appeal in terms of a 2000 Guineas.
Today’s the cut-off point for my Coventry trends. Difficult to imagine anything popping up from either of the turf maidens today, but who knows. Barring anything happening there, my Coventry Stakes trends throw up 2 horses – the favourite and 2nd favourite. Great.
I’ll be doing a RFC with the 2 rather than a pure saver on Power as I simply cannot see Gatepost finishing out of the frame. He’s still my #1. I’ve been extremely impressed by him in both outings this season and Mick Channon actually does very well with his Ascot 2yos, but unfortunately for me his success has come with his fillies rather than his colts. 2 Albany victories, 3 Queen Mary win and just 1 Coventry. Nothing in the Norfolk.
He’s had 2 trends qualifiers in the Coventry – Orizaba and Turnkey who both finished 5th. Both have very different profiles to Gatepost though, as did CD Europe.
On a jockey-related note, Jamie Spencer’s had 6 Royal Ascot victories in the 2yo Group races, 3 for Channon.
The National Stakes at Sandown on thursday looks like an interesting race as Bannock and Magic city clash again.
I know a lot of people felt that Magic City was given too much to do last time by Hughes, but Bannock seemed to win fairly cosily so it will be interesting to see how they get on this time.
It should by no means be regarded as purely a two horse race as there are other unexposed horses lining up and Magic City has already proven that he is by no means invincible. It looks a very tricky contest and I am open minded as to whether Magic City can reverse the form, however, I would imagine he will go off a short enough price again.
Magic City runs without a penalty on Thursday. The race comes too close usually for the winner to make an impact at Ascot. Last thing you want your 2yo doing 3 weeks before Ascot is having a hard race.
Magic City looked really fit at Ascot a month ago so I’m just waiting for him to go over the top. Hughes is riding badly as well so despite the uphill finish, I’d still prefer Bannock of the pair.
Yeah Foot Soldier did not show much but its just a minefield working out jockey bookings in maidens for this stable.
I liked the winner of that race and the 3rd went well for the Niarchos family. Not sure on Power…while they did draw well clear of the 3rd horse i not sure it had much depth
Zarkava, your findings on massive numbers of high-quality Darley mares with late folaing dates really suggests that operation doesn’t know the value of money. It’s really criminal the way they throw money at buying up quality horses and then let them fritter away without often even getting another run. HOW IN THE WORLD do they manage to injure SO MANY horses. Clearly they take the same lackadaisical approach to covers and breeding decisions.
On your puzzling over "Why Dr Fong?" you have to remember that there is a strong tendency towards sire diversity in that operation. Before Darjina and your namesake, there was only Zenda to recommend anyone sending their mares to Zamindar. Similarly, some of the best offspring of Lomitas, Refuse to Bend, Desert Style, Grand Lodge etc have come from this tendency. Dr Fong had shown promise to this operation by producing Shamdinan (3rd Jockey Club, 1st Secretariat), and the 2 mares you mention are actually his aunt and grand-dam so there was some clear evidence that Dr Fong worked well in that lineage. Plus Sarafina’s half-brother Sandagiyr just won a Listed race and looks to improve to Group level soon. Plus he is Northern Dancer free, and these days, adding that kind of outcross rigour adds a few pounds of appeal to any sire, I’d think.
On a jockey-related note, Jamie Spencer’s had 6 Royal Ascot victories in the 2yo Group races, 3 for Channon.
Spencer rode Dozy beautifully in the Hilary Needler. Is it only fast juveniles on which he rides well perhaps?
Zarkava, your findings on massive numbers of high-quality Darley mares with late folaing dates really suggests that operation doesn’t know the value of money. It’s really criminal the way they throw money at buying up quality horses and then let them fritter away without often even getting another run. HOW IN THE WORLD do they manage to injure SO MANY horses. Clearly they take the same lackadaisical approach to covers and breeding decisions.
On your puzzling over "Why Dr Fong?" you have to remember that there is a strong tendency towards sire diversity in that operation. Before Darjina and your namesake, there was only Zenda to recommend anyone sending their mares to Zamindar. Similarly, some of the best offspring of Lomitas, Refuse to Bend, Desert Style, Grand Lodge etc have come from this tendency. Dr Fong had shown promise to this operation by producing Shamdinan (3rd Jockey Club, 1st Secretariat), and the 2 mares you mention are actually his aunt and grand-dam so there was some clear evidence that Dr Fong worked well in that lineage. Plus Sarafina’s half-brother Sandagiyr just won a Listed race and looks to improve to Group level soon. Plus he is Northern Dancer free, and these days, adding that kind of outcross rigour adds a few pounds of appeal to any sire, I’d think.
That’s interesting stuff about Dr. Fong.
As for Godolphin, well I really have no idea what’s going on there. I’m perfectly happy with Al Zarooni, the man’s going places. I’m a colossal Dubai Prince fan and I attribute no blame to him whatsoever. As for Bin Suroor…well, what’s there to be said that hasn’t been said?
I bloody well hope he’s got Holberg right for tomorrow night because I’ve steamed in to him at 2.9-2.94. If he runs to anything like his best form, he’ll win comfortably. He’ll most probably look good doing so because he’s up against trees and then everyone will cut his price wildly for the Ascot Gold Cup.
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