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Looks like we’re both watching Luck On Sunday but posting in different threads, CAS. 😂
And Johnny Burke has a broken arm after his fall from Sam Brown, wishing him a speedy recovery.
The stat that is still holding up is having at least 3 runs in a season. Being ‘season fit’ seems to be important. Along with last run being in same calendar year.
I need to look at it again but I would imagine that first time in the race is still high up stats wise, too? That was something that I forgot to add to my last minute cramming list of horses likely to win.
“The stat that is still holding up is having at least 3 runs in a season. Being ‘season fit’ seems to be important. Along with last run being in same calendar year.”
Cheers Mike, insightful and i must take note next year
“I need to look at it again but I would imagine that first time in the race is still high up stats wise, too?”
Tiger Roll went back to back so not without its flaws.
Simples: The best handicapped horse that can stay, act on the ground and jump the Aintree fences wins.
Yes, those having their first run in the National have a better record, but that is because they are less easy for the handicapper to know how good they are over course and distance. However, if a horse that has already shown (or is likely to show) improvement then it can still be a good bet.Tiger Roll was extremely well handicapped for both victories.
Corach Rambler extremely well handicapped.
Noble Yeats had not shown he was well handicapped before the race but was yet to run over the trip and has subsequently proven he was extremely well handicapped that day.
etc etc.The Grand National is always the race I have most money invested all year. Because it is so easy to make an overall profit on the race. True, I don’t make a profit every year. But the horses whose chance of winning is greater than the odds available are a lot easier to identify in the Grand National than in any other race.
Value Is EverythingIt’s a shame that the protestors are taking attention away from a superb performance by Corach Rambler and an immense achievement by Lucinda Russell to win two Nationals in a period when many top British trainers are struggling to get a runner in the race.
I was amazed how close to the place Corach was. He travelled and jumped beautifully and if he had just put his head down and galloped to the line he would have won by 15-20 lengths. For that reason the Vaniller bad ride/unlucky theories can be put to bed.
It’s going to be much harder for the Rambler off top weight next year but I really hope he is there to try.
As for Lucinda I don’t buy the ITV idea that hers is a small stable but having two winners and two seconds from five runners at Aintree is definitely punching above her weight.
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