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I see that the deadline for the qualification is March 28th according to this story in the Mirror – https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/horse-racing/grand-national-cilaos-emery-leech-29532585.
Wonder if Sandy Thomson has instructed Craig Nichol to push out for fourth if Cilaos Emery is challenging for that place in tomorrow’s race. At 50, Hill Sixteen *should* get in but it would ensure that one higher-rated rival was out if they could relegated Cilaos to fifth at Kelso!!!
I don’t understand what they are planning to do differently with Longhouse Poet this time around. He was by far the best jumper in the field last year (slight mistake at Foinaven) but the petrol visibly ran out. I don’t know how you can reign back an exuberant jumper like him. Surely his best asset is his jumping and you need to use it to try and put others under pressure. Personally I think the best thing they could do with him is point and shoot and hope to cling on for a place again.
Longhouse poet goes on my shortlist simply because of his jumping!
I try to have a book of about 5 or 6 with differing profiles and he’s the one I like who comes under the “out in front early cling on for a place” banner.
At the minute I’m thinking.
Longhouse poet, any second now, Chris’s dream each way.
Le milos, quick wave to win.
Sixteen withdrawals today.
Eva’s Oskar now 40th and Our power 41st.
He should get a run and I like the horse but huge stamina doubts for me.
The horses taken out
Hewick
Conflated
Franco De Port
Chris’s Dream
Cilaos Emery
Lord Lariat
Ashtown Lad
Rapper
Glamorgan Duke
Pencilfulloflead
Happygolucky
Ga Law
Remastered
Farclas
Threeunderthrufive
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Last one added for me is Darasso, though I’ll definitely have Any Second Now on the day. I fully expect him run at Fairyhouse, but as I was happy to add one more, he looked the one that was just a bit big on the exchanges (probably because he’ll be going to Fairyhouse)
Darasso 250’s
Galvin 33’s
Hill Sixteen 100’s NRNB
Roi Mage 150’s EW
Roi Mage 66’s EW 5pls NRNBDelta Work 33’s to lay
I’m actually drawn more to Le Milos today so my current shortlist is
Le Milos
Corach Rambler
Lifetime Ambition
Carefully Selected
Roi MageVF x
Though officially the best handicapped horse in the race, I wouldn’t be absolutely sure Corach Rambler will get the trip.
The modified fences mean it’s more of a conventional marathon nowadays and his only run thus far beyond 3m2f doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"10st 5lb on his back looks an absolute penalty kick at first glance Ian but an extra mile and a half for the first time has to be enough of a concern to put most off.
Is there oodles of stamina in the pedigree?
Well, he’s tacking five furlongs further than the 3m5f of the 2022 Warwick Classic, in which he weakened from two out to be beaten just under 20 lengths.
3m2f looks about as far as he wants to go to me.
Back in the day, when the fences were so formidable they hunted round the first circuit and only raced the second, pretty much any 3m park course chaser could get the Grand National trip, but it’s more of an end-to-end gallop both circuits over the spruce-covered fixed brush hurdles they seem to have nowadays so I’ve got my doubts about him lasting home.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Well, he’s tacking five furlongs further than the 3m5f of the 2022 Warwick Classic, in which he weakened from two out to be beaten just under 20 lengths.”
Carried 11 stone 12 that day. And Grand National wasn’t the target that season as far as i am aware. 10 stone 5 and National a season aim this time. And trainer knows how to train a National winner. So we will see.
It’s his way of running that would concern me as much as the trip.
A last to first ride in the national the way it is these days would be an amazing feat.
For all he’s clearly weighted well, to overcome 40 fences, 4m 2f, horses falling in front of him, loose horses, and still manage to pick off every other runner in the race. I can’t see that being possible. Something else is going to get first run on him or the pace of the race is going to find him out in the last few furlongs.
At 7/1 he’s not an e/w bet and it’s too short given the clear risks to be a worthwhile bet to win!
“A last to first ride in the national the way it is these days would be an amazing feat.”
If you watch the Ultima 2023 back again he was positioned midfield or just worse than midfield. If he takes to the course I don’t think he will be at the back.
Will take a skillful ride on corach rambler
The run in at Aintree is very long and you could see in the ultima the second he hit the front his head went straight up in the air
Jockey will need to have the confidence to deliver him very late
6s top price.. by the time the bookies get their teeth into everything on the day he’ll be odds on
shame you can’t lay bookie pricesBlackbeard to conquer the World
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