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What is the lowest price people would be willing to take about Tiger Roll?
If he is 3s come the day and you believe he will win, play him or just watch the race?
Nwalton that’s an interesting question for those who disagree that value is vital in winning long term (“you can’t eat value”)
Would anyone in that camp take evens Tiger Roll?
Hi steeplechasing (hope you are well)I start with who I think will win the race, have a rough idea of what price is required.
Say i want 10s and bookies price up 8s, might still get involved.
If they went 9/2, would leave the race alone. Some (on betfair) would lay the horse even though they think it will win due to the price, call me old fashioned but dont get that.As I don’t think Tiger Roll will finish first you can have any price you like nwalton.
Ginger, what Honeyball said was:
“It’s a good opportunity for some horses, especially a horse like Ms Parfois”
and:
“What novice chaser really needs to go four miles at that stage of their life?”
Therefore, my comment:
“Serves Honeyball right for running her in the NH Chase one year then criticising the judgement of his fellow trainers for running horses in it the next. Hypocrite. Karma!”
is an accurate representation (or I’m a Warthog!)
And, thus, it is telling me what I think to say I know my comment is a “total misrepresentation”.
Got most of my Yala Enki money back, so I’ve reinvested it in Singlefarmpayment. Is clearly talented and will get conditions to suit. He obviously comes with a few quirks, but those types often take to the National well! 50/1 nrnb and 80’s on the Exchanges is worth a go.
That long, long run in might be the making of him after all!
Don’t think others would appreciate continuing the arguement on this thread, GM; as your attack on Honeyball has no business on these pages.
Have answered you in the National Hunt Chase thread in the Horse Racing section.Value Is EverythingPeevish or not, it was just an aside as a result of news relevant to this thread. It is you who is continuing the argument, Ginger, I had no intention to (on this thread or any other) because it has all been said already.
What is the lowest price people would be willing to take about Tiger Roll?
If he is 3s come the day and you believe he will win, play him or just watch the race?
Trying to price up a National for me is pretty tricky but i wouldn’t back Tiger Roll at 3s or even 5s.
Yes he’s the likeliest winner, but it’s the National. It’s not even the chance of an incident that worries me it’s last years run. People are saying he’s better than ever this year, and yes that’s possible, but he’d need to be a fair bit better. Given he’s up 9 pounds + only won a head- and it wasn’t an “easy” head.
Happy to take him on, for all i love the horse.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!With the amount of runners elliot has he could send tiger off in front and use the rest as a gradualing slowing defensive wall …lol
now here is my question Jack, if you think he is the likeliest winner will you be looking to back against him, or will you sit a just watch? OK I can get it’s the national i’ll have a bet, but if it was a ‘normal’ chase would you back against the horse you think will win because of its price?
that question is to any TRF punter, dont want to clog the national thread up so if it gets busy i’ll ask question to be moved
I think from a value point you can’t , let’s face it red rum was a bigger price and he was running in less competitive races , I love tiger but going by my betting rules I can’t back him, I think the likes of rathvindon is a much better value bet , another question is with the number of runners he has entered …does Elliot have a well handicapped horse sneaking quietly out the stable door while everyone else looks at tiger
but is it value if you think Tiger roll will win? i will move it onto another thread so to let the national thread carry on
nwalton,
Tiger Roll is top priced 4/1.
Another way of looking at 4/1 is that the bookmaker is offering 20%. ie At level stakes a punter needs to win 20% of his/her bets of 4/1 in order to break even. Therefore, if the punter believes Tiger Roll has a better than 20% chance he/she should back it… if the punter believes Tiger Roll has a worse than 20% chance he/she should not back it. And that means it is not a case of backing “against the horse you think will win“, because it does not come in to it at all… Because if I believe a horse has a 25% chance I must also believe it has a 75% chance of not winning (25 + 75 = 100%). I may think Tiger Roll has over three times as much chance of losing than winning and it would still be a value “good” bet.For 7/2 read 22.2%, 100/30 23.1%, 3/1 25% etc.
Value Is Everything
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