- This topic has 517 replies, 74 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
Decided to commit to Walk In The Mill. Can see his price holding, however I don’t expect the 44’s on the Exchanges to get any better. He’s entered in a novice hurdle next week, so he’ll at least get one more blow out before the National.
I wish I could say the same for Traffic Fluide who I’m actually really sweet on, but I’d really like to see him out one more time before Aintree. I understand they want him there a fresh horse, but his record after significant (even small) breaks isn’t really that great. I don’t know what the longest break pre-national win is, but in recent years I think it’s around mid January.
I’m really intrigued to see how Ultragold gets on in the Cross Country at Cheltenham, not least because it’s the furthest he’s been tried. His is a season I like to see in National contenders. Plenty of runs in decent sized fields over adequate distances.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little disappointed in Yala Enki’s Haydock run, however every horse is entitled to the occasional off day and the ground was lively enough for him. His win at Bangor earlier in the season shows he doesn’t need it bottomless, however he clearly doesn’t want the very top of the ground. I’m half tempted to go in again as I only got 60’s on the Exchanges whereas he’s now 80.
Vieux Lion Rouge is the one I’m having slight buyers remorse over. Was convinced after his Becher run he was on his way back to something near his best and while I was willing to forgive his Welsh National run as I’m convinced he was used to help his stablemates chances that day, but his Haydock run had fewer excuses. Never looked happy and was in trouble a long way out. Not sure if I can bring myself to cash out as he might be sparked to life by the course, but I won’t be going in again!
Those are my 5 against the field and they’ll likely be my lot.
Thought Black Corton run yesterday was appalling. Having selected him in VTC 10 to follow comp, I kept an eye on his performance yesterday and come to the conclusion that it’s in his best interest if they withdraw him from the race.
If Black Corton went on to win the National, it would be a fluke on the scale of Foinavon.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Black Corton’s jumping was very scruffy and he was getting pushed along very early on. Doesn’t look a National horse to me. As an aside the winner at Kelso, Blue Flight, may well go for the Scottish National.
Paul Nichols likes to send his horses who are just short of top class to the National in the hopes they have a little in hand, but they invariably don’t. My Will, Tricky Trickster, What A Friend, Rocky Creek, Unioniste and Saphir Du Rheu all come to mind.
Peter H to be fair to Paul Nicholls he did get it right in 2012, with 2 horses in the top 5 (including the winner).
Neptune Collonges though was in a different league to Black Corton (In My Opinion).
Having been beaten in 2008 by his 2 stable companions (Denman and Kauto Star) in that year’s Gold Cup, 7 lengths by the winner and a short head by the runner up.The following year he was fourth beaten by 22 lengths as the first two of the previous year switched places. Exotic Dancer managed to fill third spot.
Black Corton has in my view shown promise otherwise I wouldn’t have picked him for VTC comp, but so far failed to deliver. According to Racing Post he has 2 possible entries before the National, Gold Cup & Ultima Handicap. Don’t know if he’ll take any of them up, but not much hope with him.
Yes I might have a small wager if he turned up on National day (hope he won’t though) but it will be on blind faith alone.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Paul Nichols has sent genuine class acts to the National, all of whom i seriously fancied and indeed backed.
Neptune Collonges did the business.
Tidal Bay was very unlucky and got effectively knocked over.
Silviniaco Conti took a bad bump and was pulled up soon after.I really should stick with Abolitionist and Rathvinden just now, but even this far out I’m going to add a third.
With the rain finally arriving, I really hope that it stays for Vintage Clouds, and the fact I can get non runner no bet as well as 5 places, well I think that makes him worth adding at 25-1.
Added a couple here.
I just keep going back to Pairofbrowneyes. Took a few quid at treble figures, but the main bet will be NRNB, as if he he runs well tomorrow, I think the price will crumble.
I’ve always had Blow By Blow as a proper “target” horse of Elliots, and it was only his last run that gave me some concern. He runs tomorrow as well, but the mere fact that he got kept in the 5 Days for the NH Chase, suggests all is well. He’s topped up as high as 360’s, and also 66’s NRNB
Expecting lots of clues from Cheltenham and Uttoxeter for Aintree. Will let you know my verdict after this week’s action. 🤔
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.3 of my antepost selections are running in the same race tomorrow. General Principle, Vintage Clouds, Noble Endeavor.
What a fantastic trial for the National from Lake View Lad. I know that Vintage Clouds ran a belter but he had a much harder race.
I was impressed by Vintage Clouds, and yes patriot1 I agree that VC had a hard race yesterday but he’s no stranger to marathon races running twice in the Scottish National. In my opinion he would travel up with the pace, but somewhere mid race he would lose his position. Probably because he doesn’t accelerate as quickly as his competitors but he does stay. I don’t know what made the difference yesterday, I had heard he had a wind op but can’t confirm it, anyway yesterday he kept up all the way. Yes Beware The Bear did get the better of him, but Trevor Hemmings is very keen on winning the National for a record fourth time, so both horses will go if they get the chance.
My research shows that horses produce their best races either the race before or two races before the National. I’m confident that Vintage Cloud falls into the former category.
Lake View Lad also produce his career best in that race, but yesterday was the furthest he’d travelled. So you’re taking on trust that he can stay an extra mile and half (or a good part of it
) You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.my assessment of the 3 in the Ultima…
General Principle on at 33s – a P going into the National not ideal.
Noble Endeavor at 50s – trainer said he needs the run so a sighter before the big one probably.
Vintage Clouds at 50s – very good.This Tramore form has started to work out really well. We’ve had a Gold Cup winner and a Thyestes winner in first and third. In the Thyestes, third behind the late Invitation Only was Up For Review, who was absolutely swinging along down the hill in the Ultima before clouting three out, effectively ending his challenge. He’s still 33/1 for this, I reckon he’s probably gone under the radar.
Mall Dini out tomorrow, and hoping for a bit of encouragement over a trip that’s hardly going to test him.
One horse really impressed me today, and that was Jury Duty. I really like the way he did it, and I’m even more interested in his overall prep.
I’m surprised he didn’t get more attention, and he’s very interesting at 40’s NRNB
My GIVE ME A COPPER Bet is down the pan. Connections have pulled him. 😩
I’m really strong on NOBLE ENDEAVOR. 50/1 ew NRNB is a crazy price. Should be 25/1 shot.
18k for me if he wins and just over 1.5k if he places. last Leg on a couple of EW multiplies
Lovely prep run in the ultima. Will come on for the run.
Also gone in again on Monberg Notrious at 80/1 ew NRNB
Good luck all
) 
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.