2019 Stayers Hurdle

I don’t think we are. That ‘same set of has beens’ includes the previous two Stayers Hurdle favourites, the best the UK has to offer and the majority of the field he will face tomorrow. And with Penhill out, following the same logic, all that is coming over the Irish Sea is a smaller set of has beens with different accents. PP is the form horse, the progressive horse, the highest rated in the field, with course form, and the one they all have to beat. Of course that doesn’t make him infallible but he’s one of the most solid favourites of the week in my opinion.

Kilbricken Storm will do me.

Supasundae

Doesn’t seem in the same form as last year, but Sam Spinner needed to be backed @ around 50/1. Trainer is now in much better form now than for some of those runs. True, he’s almost refused once and shouldn’t be anywhere near fav this year; but shouldn’t be that price. Lot more encouragement last time – running well for a long way. With a fair bit of give in the ground today; if Joke sets a gallop that suits (which didn’t happen last year) may get a fairly soft lead and could surprise a few. If only Johnson was on board.

Faugheen is good fresh and hasn’t been seen this year – a plus in that respect. However, that means hasn’t been seen since a 10 year old, 11 is old for a hurdler and although ran well enough in December behind Apples Jade before falling, may be on the downgrade. I’d want a positive market move to indicate he’s not and oddschecker is mainly pink. If at his best Supasundae has a great chance, just not convinced truly stays and not at his best since April…

So although started working the race out thinking I’ll be opposing Paisley Park, is really the only one who’s improved in to a top hurdler and racing against the second and third in the market a lot less likely to show their form. 2/1 a good bet. Just hope he gets a good pace to run through horses. If Faugheen/Ruby is allowed his own way in front will undoubtedly set slow fractions to suit his speed; can’t see prominent runner (stable companion) Coqin Mas taking him on. But hopefully they won’t make the same mistake twice on Sam Spinner and Nautical Nitwit is another possible leader/pace encourager.

Yanworth is pretty good at his best but has often looked a little temperamental in the past and (by squiggle horse Norse Dancer) suspect injuries have made him worse – blinkered for the first time.

Wanted to be against West Approach and Kilbriken Storm on trainer form, Lostintranslation has improved that stat a little, but the former is inconsistent and latter hasn’t taken at all well to fences since the Spa. May not be in great form.

Keepers Hill, Man Of Plenty, The Mighty Don all having a day out for connections, Nautical Nitwit and Coqin Mas shouldn’t be good enough.

Petit Mouchoir has been well backed in places and is a top class racehorse at his best. But I wouldn’t back him to stay 2 1/2 miles let alone 3. Possibly in this because owner had Apples for the Champion and Petit Mouchoir sometimes being too free could’ve done a Melon.

Black Op‘s ran well to be placed here in the novice and won at Aintree; but don’t think his jumping is good enough to win the best Grade 1 at this trip for established hurdlers.

Wholestone disappointed last time and looks exposed as just behind the best even if running to form – place prospects at best… Which is not the case with owner companion Top Notch, Jacob’s choice. Fair 5 3/4 lengths 3rd behind Paisley Park on reappearance. Chase form would put him right up with a great chance here and no real reason to believe should be better over the bigger obstacles – quite small for a chaser. Trainer in excellent form too, 18/1 too big to ignore!

I do like the Mullins second and third strings, Bacardys and Bapaume. Latter has a reel chance of a place. 1 1/4 lengths second to Presenting Percy in the Galmoy Hurdle and won a top French Hurdle back in June. Trouble is doesn’t win very often, possibly a place only bet. Bacardys fell in this last year when probably going to be involved in the places. Some scope for improvement. Went chasing but didn’t take to it. Thought 15/1 was a cracking price, now 26/1; whilst the one I didn’t back – Bapaume – has shortened up… But all the others I’ve backed are currently blue.

Backed: Paisley Park 2/1, Top Notch 18/1, Bacardys 15/1 and Sam Spinner 49/1.

This race would have been a certainty for Presenting Percy here but his trainer owner have made a big mistake.

2nd to Presenting Percy over hurdles last time BAUPAME can take this in his absence.

That was some acceleration went from being in trouble to taking the lead in no time at all
delighted for connections

Well done Peter, a marvellous bet