Kerry National 2018

Entries out, and the good news for me is that none of the four in mind for this, have made it. It certainly takes away a bit of a headache for me.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/190/listowel/2018-09-12/711123

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/kerry-national/winner

What is giving me a headache, is that my old friend Our Father is in there, can’t believe it. Three years off the track, but he’s in the best of hands with Gordon Elliot, and crucially, he goes well fresh. Well there’s fresh, and there’s “fresh”, and three years is a proper break, but he must be showing something, and it’s an immediate problem for me. If he’s good to go, off of 130, then really, I have to be involved in some shape or form.

Elliot has won the last two renewals, and he’s also taken on Rogue Angel, the 2015 Winner. I really like this horse, and his debut for the yard was rock solid. He’s surely got another big one in him, and he’s extremely high on my shortlist, in fact he’d be my #1 for this at the moment, if not for Our Father. His style should suit perfectly here. The horse that beat him last time, Timiyan, is also in there, and he’s at the other end of the scale, progressing nicely, and he’s very high on the list also.

Not surprisingly, they aren’t the only pair from the Elliot yard. Jury Duty is a smashing horse, and as the season proper, looms, he’ll have plenty of options. I’m not 100% convinced that he’ll take this in, I see him as a definite Troytown Candidate, before bigger things in the spring, but nonetheless, he has to be taken seriously. As well as Rogue, he has other Gigginstown candidates, in the shape of Thunder and Roses, and Lord Scoundrel. They’ve both won major prizes, and are both worth a second look. Scoundrel was running a big race in this two year ago, off the back of his Galway Plate win, and though he wouldn’t have won, he’d certainly had made the frame. First glance tells you that he’s got his work cut out, but he looked sore or stiff a couple of times last year, they was certainly something bothering him, and he looked more like it the last couple of times. 13lbs lower than two years ago, and very hard to dismiss lightly. 33’s is enormous. Thunder and Roses is a lot easier to dismiss on recent showings, he’s certainly cost me a few quid, but I don’t know, there’s just something about this horse which I can’t give up on. The only real positives I can see, is the switch to Elliot (god knows what he could do with him), and also that ever slipping mark. He’s a lot riskier than Scoundrel, but I will watch jockey booking with interest.

Gigginstown will be looking for a four timer in this, and they have other ammo too. Wounded Warrior came back to life in style at Punchestown, but last two runs have tempered enthusiasm just a tad, with the new mark maybe taking it’s toll. I would happily draw a line through stablemate, old Road To Riches, and I’d have retired him last year, but Aintree was an eye opener. Don’t know what to make of him, but I liked the route they took for the prep, and his mark is continuing to slide. Who knows? All Hell Let Loose is solid, if not spectacular type for Henry De Bromhead, but I would just be a bit surprised, if this was his day.

I’d be more positive about De Bromheads other entries. A Rated had a very very nice prep, and though he hasn’t actually achieved that much, he’s hinted at ability on more than one occasion, and does have age on his side. Riviera Sun was just behind him last time, and though I think he’d just come up short in this, not to mention the fact that he’s struggling to get in, he’s a nice enough type for JP, and his run at Galway last summer offers plenty of encouragement.

As well as Riviera Sun (and Timiyan), JP can also call on Blazer, Oscar Knight, slowmotion, Spider Web, and the admirable Carlingford Lough. Carlingford never landed a blow in The National, where I was very keen on him, but like Road To Riches, he’s extremely well weighted, and keeps begging the question, “what are they still in training for”. I feel there must still be a target, and though this isn’t really his time of year, he’s hard to pass over lightly. Oscar Knight has been an unlucky horse in the past, he blundered away the win in The Paddy Power a couple of years back, and I don’t recall him getting an entry for this before, which may be telling. Interesting entry, and I could see him backed in the lead up. I thought Slowmotion had the world at her feet, but she hasn’t quite delivered, and her run in the Galway Plate, although respectable, wasn’t quite enough for me here. Down the field last year, and I don’t know if a 4lb swing will make a big enough of a difference. I did though, see signs of encouragement from her in The Grimes Hurdle. I bet Spider Web last time at Galway, and he got badly hampered, and having been rushed back into things, took a tumble. I reckon he would have went close that night, and he’d be seriously considered right now, if not for the fact that he’s struggling to make the cut. One for the nearer the time definitely. That leaves us with market leader Blazer. He looks a worthy favourite for me, from the Willie Mullins yard, and he has plenty of ability, as well as being thoroughly unexposed over fences. His chasing career has been very encouraging, and his warm up race, alright it was in The Galway Hurdle, was rock solid, and if not for the fact that he could have other options in the coming months, he’d be impossible to be negative about, certainly off of his really generous looking mark.

It’s not actually a race I automatically look to, for Closutton runner, but Blazer could be joined by Haymount, Townshend, and Saturnas. Townshend hasn’t fulfilled his early hype, he was a proper “talking horse” two years back, but he’s had an eye opening prep, and has the time to deliver. Saturnas also has time on his side, and though he’s had a low key start to his career over fences, he looks just the type that Mullins could lay out for something, he has the ability. Haymount looks high enough on what he’s actually achieved, but a step in the right direction last time, and I keep going back to his run behind Tiger Roll at Cheltenham, in The NH Chase. That’s solid as hell, and if he can ever reproduce that, he’ll be winning a prize of this nature.

I’m in the unusual position of being very keen on a horse for both this, and The Cesarewitch. Yeah, I know. Sandymount Duke heads the weights, but I love this horse, and I think the mark is fair. He’ll be going the right way at Listowel, and he’s very interesting, despite top weight. Cracking dual purpose horse, and the 14’s looks fair. Shortlist material, but obviously has huge number of options, and can’t be bet before the day.

The same applies to the British Challengers, they all have their merits, the resurgent Shantou Village, the bang in form, Dell’ Arca, and Bishops Road, who’s got plenty to prove at present, and probably weather dependent. A case could be made for all three, but wise to wait until they travel.

There’s couple in there, who are really causing me a problem. Vieux Morvan was disappointing last time, but if he’s “blew away the cobwebs” with that run, then on his runs at Leapordstown last year, I’d be giving him a massive chance. Kilcarry Bridge isn’t getting any younger, but he’s a very likeable type, and his last run will have put him spot on for this. If looking for an outsider to give you a proper run for your money, this is your lad, and he could lead them a merry dance for a fair way.

Peregrine Run, and Snow Falcon are both classy contenders, and have to be respected, could see them both having the race by their clutches (or is it talons) on best form. This is the target for Peregrine, and he had a smashing prep last week. Very weather dependent though, and I can’t see them running if there’s rain, so not one to rush into just now, certainly no need to anyway at his current price. The ability is there with Falcon, but he has to show something over fences soon, as he’s became expensive for followers. Both of these could easily take a say, if on a going day.

The Wests Awake was so unlucky last time at Killarney. Race at her mercy, and she took a cruncher at the last. Perfectly weighted, more than capable of this, and if none the worse for that spill, a player for sure.

The likes of Jarob, Bay of Freedom, Supreme Vinnie, and Call It Magic, are all regulars for this type of prize, but just seem to come up short. Of those, I think Vinnie has the most potential to surprise, while I’d love to see Bay of Freedom prove me wrong for his owner, who’ll hopefully come on here, and give us his thoughts.

Down the bottom, strangely, and I can’t really back this up strongly, but I could actually see Master Appeal running well, while Major Destination, and Rightville Boy have a lot to do on current form, though it’s hard to forget Rightville Boy in this two years back, it was a cracking run behind Wrath of Titans. What is he getting kept in training for?

Tough gig then, and not betting “immediately”, though I’ll probably crack very soon.

The chances of those at the head of the market are obvious, but the three Giggs inmates at Elliot’s, make massive appeal, Lord Scoundrel, Thunder and Roses, and Rogue Angel. At the moment, I’ll go with the latter. Stablemate Our Father wins this I think if he’s fit, but is a huge question mark. Regardless, should he line up, no way will he be 25’s, and even at this early stage, I can’t believe that is holding. I will be betting him.

Of the rest, Sandymount Duke, Timiyan, and Vieux Morvan giving me the biggest headache, for the Antepost selections. I’ll be with a couple Antepost, and one further added on the day (well hopefully just the one).

Early Shortlist

Our Father #1 25’s
Rouge Angel 20’s
Lord Scoundrel 33’s
Sandymount Duke 14’s
Vieux Morvan 20’s
Timyan 10’s

GL