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JRA:
>> Welcome back to our annual series of newsletters leading up to the 2018 Japan Cup (G1, 2,400m). The fall racing season is heading towards the Japan Autumn International Series, which will be held over four weekends between November 11 and December 2 and comprise four prestigious G1 races: the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1, 2,200m), the Mile Championship (G1, 1,600m), the Japan Cup and the Champions Cup (G1, dirt, 1,800m). Total prize money for the four G1 events will amount to JPY 1.33 billion (USD 12.1m), with additional bonuses for winners of designated overseas G1 events who also finish within the top three in any of the four races. Also, winners of designated overseas races who finish outside the top three places in the Japan Cup will still be guaranteed an incentive of US$100,000.
New Challenger to Last Year’s Top Finishers in Japan Cup
Cheval Grand (JPN, H6, by Heart’s Cry) entered the 2017 Japan Cup as fifth favorite and succeeded under Hugh Bowman for his first G1 title. He defeated the season’s Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1, 2,400m) victor Rey de Oro (JPN, C4, by King Kamehameha) as well as Horse of the Year and race favorite Kitasan Black (JPN, by Black Tide), who finished second and third, respectively. Four lengths behind in fourth was 2016 derby winner Makahiki (JPN, H5, by Deep Impact), followed by Idaho (IRE, H5, by Galileo), the top finisher among foreign contingents in fifth. Kitasan Black, who dominated turf racing in Japan the last couple of years before capping off a stellar career with his last G1 victory in the Arima Kinen (G1, 2,500m), has begun a new life at stud. The remaining three are still in training but only Rey de Oro has managed to come up with a win this season.
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Possible newcomers that could be a threat in this year’s Japan Cup include Suave Richard (JPN, C4, by Heart’s Cry) and Mikki Rocket (JPN, H5, by King Kamehameha). Suave Richard was runner-up in the 2017 Tokyo Yushun and bested a field of older rivals in the Copa Republica Argentina (G2, 2,500m). Despite his weakness on right-handed tracks, he still managed to finish a close fourth in the Arima Kinen. This season, he kicked off his four-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kinko Sho (G2, 2,000m). He landed his first G1 title in the following Osaka Hai, also right-handed, making early headway from the rear, overtaking the field on the backstretch, hugging the rails and prevailing under Mirco Demuro for a 3/4-length win. He concluded his spring campaign with a third at a mile in the Yasuda Kinen (G1, 1,600m), but likely will step up in distance again this fall, including the Tenno Sho (Autumn) prior to his first Japan Cup.
Mikki Rocket, a fifth-place finisher in the 2016 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger, G1, 3,000m), scored his first grade-race title in his four-year-old debut, the Nikkei Shinhun Hai (G2, 2,400m), but was unable to finish better than sixth in three G1 starts that season. The son of King Kamehameha progressed well in his five-year-old season, finishing fourth in the Tenno Sho (Spring) as ninth favorite and then reaffirming his form to win the Takarazuka Kinen as the seventh favorite. He edged forward from mid-division, took command in the early stretch and held off a strong charge by Hong Kong raider Werther (NZ, G7, by Tavistock) for a neck win. His intended fall comeback in the Kyoto Daishoten was cancelled due to a conditioning delay, so he will head straight to his three G1 targets – the Tenno Sho (Autumn), the Japan Cup and the Arima Kinen…..
http://japanracing.jp/_news2018/180926-02.html#hl03
early nomination (free) closes noon local time Tuesday 9 Oct:
http://japanracing.jp/en/horsemen/jai/japan_cup/I’ll be having another go at this Wit, but probably best I don’t stick my neck out with a long term fancy.
still early days VtC, but the JRA helpfully have kept online their full build-ups from this stage onwards for each of 2017 and 2016:
28 overseas nominations, inc five from IRE and five from GB:
Latrobe (IRE) a late nomination by Joseph O’Brien.
Horses must arrive Japan by this Thursday 15 November; Declarations the following Thursday 22 Nov ahead of race on Sun 25 Nov:
http://japanracing.jp/en/horsemen/jai/japan_cup/
looking forward to seeing this year’s Japanese Fillies’ Triple Crown winner Almond Eye from the first crop of Lord Kanaloa make her bid for international ranking:
http://www.jbis.jp/horse/0001203363/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almond_EyeCapri (A O’Brien) and Thundering Blue (D Menuisier) announced today as acceptors:
JRA early preview of the race:
http://japanracing.jp/_news2018/181114-04.html
The most anticipated starter in this year’s Japan Cup (G1, 2,400m) on November 25 would be Almond Eye (JPN, F3, by Lord Kanaloa), who is coming off her sweep of the fillies’ Triple Crown—the first in six years and fifth overall. Defeated to second in her two-year-old summer debut, the Lord Kanaloa (JPN, by King Kamehameha) filly has remained undefeated in her following five starts, including an inaugural graded victory in her three-year-old comeback in January, the Shinzan Kinen (G3, 1,600m). The bay filly came off a three-month break for the first of her Triple, the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas, G1, 1,600m), where she captured her first G1 title with a terrific late charge from behind. Some were skeptical about her handling the 2,400-meter distance in the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks, G1, 2,400m) based on her pedigree—her sire was a sprint champion with five G1 titles at 1,200 meters. Nevertheless, the gifted filly was quick to prove her doubters wrong by effortlessly pulling away from the front group, covering the distance in 2:23.8, the second fastest in the race’s history.
Five months later, Almond Eye won the last of her Triple, the Shuka Sho (G1, 2,000m), with yet another powerful charge from behind. She weighed 14kg more than in the Yushun Himba, allowing the possibility of handling another start after her remarkable accomplishment. Trainer Sakae Kunieda confirmed his intention to put her in the Japan Cup, provided only if her physical state is right for the big challenge. If the three-year-old filly claims the Japan Cup title, she would be only the second three-year-old filly, following Gentildonna (JPN, by Deep Impact) in 2012, to win both the Triple Crown and the Japan Cup in the same year.
Among those who ran in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1, 2,000m) on October 28, winner Rey de Oro (JPN, C4, by King Kamehameha) was another potential Japan Cup runner with high expectations this year. Following his derby victory in the 2017 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1, 2,400m), he turned in a runner-up effort against his seniors in the Japan Cup last year. With regular rider Christophe Lemaire having already been booked to ride his other partner, Almond Eye, Rey de Oro’s connections have chosen the Arima Kinen (G1, 2,500m) on December 23 as his next destination.
Connections of Tenno Sho (Autumn) runner-up Sungrazer (JPN, C4, by Deep Impact) and fourth-place finisher Al Ain (JPN, C4, by Deep Impact) have already announced their plans to head to the Hong Kong Cup (G1, 2,000m) on December 9 and the Mile Championship (G1, 1,600m) on November 18, respectively, instead of the Japan Cup.
Tenno Sho (Autumn) third-place finisher Kiseki (JPN, C4, by Rulership) appears to be back on a positive path after a prolonged slump. He won the 2017 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger, G1, 3,000m) but was badly affected by the effort over an unprecedentedly heavy track. The talented colt showed signs of bouncing back this fall with a third in the Mainichi Okan (G2, 1,800m) and then validated his form in the Tenno Sho. If he is able to secure a good position early and make use of his stamina over 2,400 meters, he has a good chance to finish well at the Japan Cup.
Coming in fifth in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) was Mikki Rocket (JPN, H5, by King Kamehameha), who claimed his first G1 title in the Takarazuka Kinen (G1, 2,200m) in June by out-dueling Hong Kong’s former Horse of the Year Werther (NZ, G7, by Tavistock) for a well-deserved victory, even though the race did not include the best of JRA’s turf runners. Despite a prolonged four-month break, the son of King Kamehameha (JPN, by Kingmambo) then made an impressive effort in the Tenno Sho by crossing the wire just 0.4 second behind winner Rey de Oro. He might improve on this in his second time out this fall.
Tenno Sho (Autumn) race favorite Suave Richard (JPN, C4, by Heart’s Cry) finished a disappointing tenth after missing his break, getting bumped on his left and then being pinched back. Having to race in the rear, he failed to be a factor in the race and was well beaten by 1.5 seconds. However, he turned in impressive performances beginning with his runner-up effort in the Tokyo Yushun last year, which he followed with a victory against older horses in the Copa Republica Argentina (G2, 2,500m), both at Tokyo Racecourse where the Japan Cup will be held. He then scored his first G1 victory in the Osaka Hai (2000m) in April this year. The Heart’s Cry (JPN, by Sunday Silence) colt has every chance of doing well if the Japan Cup proceeds smoothly.
Some of the key runners will be coming off starts in the Kyoto Daishoten (G2, 2,400m) on October 8. Victor Satono Diamond (JPN, H5, by Deep Impact), the leader of the five-year-old generation, won both the Kikuka Sho and the Arima Kinen as a three-year-old, but then experienced a downturn after being defeated to third in the Tenno Sho (Spring) (G1, 3,200m) in April last year. He was unsuccessful in France, where he was heavily beaten in both the Prix Foy (G2, 2,400m) and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1, 2,400m), and then remained below form this spring, finishing third, seventh and sixth in three starts. He finally put a stop to his losing streak at six by claiming the Kyoto Daishoten. He will be facing tougher competition in the Japan Cup, so his true ability will be put to the test.
The 2017 Japan Cup champion Cheval Grand (JPN, H6, by Heart’s Cry) will attempt to defend his title coming off a fourth-place finish in the Kyoto Daishoten. Under the skillful hands of Hugh Bowman, the son of Heart’s Cry validated his Japan Cup win by overcoming disadvantages to finish third in his next outing, the Arima Kinen. He disappointed to 13th in his 2018 comeback, the Osaka Hai, but in the Tenno Sho (Spring) he made an early move and missed by just a neck. In the Kyoto Daishoten, although he carried a kilo more than the eventual winner, there is concern about his inability, without any apparent excuse, to hold off the second and third-place finishers, who were below his rank. The hope is that he will improve on this second start of his fall season.
The Copa Republica Argentina was held on November 4 and won by Perform a Promise (JPN, H6, by Stay Gold) this year. Past winners of this race have subsequently become G1 winners—2008 winner Screen Hero (JPN, by Grass Wonder) claimed the Japan Cup that year; 2010 winner Tosen Jordan (JPN, by Jungle Pocket) won the Tenno Sho (Autumn) and was runner-up in the Japan Cup in the following year; Gold Actor (JPN, by Screen Hero) won in 2015 and claimed that year’s Arima Kinen; 2016 winner Cheval Grand was the 2017 Japan Cup victor; and last year’s winner Suave Richard took the 2018 Osaka Hai. Perform a Promise, the son of Stay Gold (JPN, by Sunday Silence) and third favorite in this G2 race, was rated off the rails in mid-field and exerted a good turn of speed to tag the leader 100 meters out for a 3/4-length victory. It was his second grade-race title, after the Nikkei Shinshun Hai (G2, 2,400m), and gave Irish jockey Colm O’Donoghue, who rode under JRA’s short-term license, his first grade-race victory in Japan. Perform a Promise will pass up the Japan Cup, however, to focus on the Arima Kinen in December.
The Japanese entries also include 2016 Hong Kong Vase (G1, 2,400m) and 2017 Takarazuka Kinen champion Satono Crown (JPN, H6, by Marju), 2016 Japan Cup runner-up Sounds of Earth (JPN, H7, by Neo Universe), 2016 Tokyo Yushun victor Makahiki (JPN, H5, by Deep Impact), 2018 Nikkei Sho (G2, 2,500m) champ Ganko (JPN, H5, by Nakayama Festa), 2018 Meguro Kinen (G2, 2,500m) winner Win Tenderness (JPN, H5, by Company), 2018 Takarazuka Kinen third-place finisher Noble Mars (JPN, H5, by Jungle Pocket) and 2017 St. Lite Kinen victor Mikki Swallow (JPN, C4, by Tosen Homareboshi). Happy Grin (JPN, C3, by Lohengrin), who has three wins and three thirds out of nine starts, all on turf, but is coming off an 11th-place finish in the Fuji Stakes (G3, 1,800m), also will run in this year’s Japan Cup as a representative of NAR (National Association of Racing; local public racing).
Meanwhile, two foreign runners have accepted their invitations to run in the 2018 Japan Cup. Capri (IRE, C4, by Galileo) from Ireland won both the 2017 Irish Derby (G1, 2,400m) and St. Leger (G1, 2,900m) and finished a valuable fifth in this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Thundering Blue (USA, G5, by Exchange Rate) from Great Britain, winner of the York Stakes (G2, 2,050m), finished third and second in the International Stakes (G1, 2,050m) and the Canadian International (G1, 2,400m), respectively.
JRA data analysis here:
http://japanracing.jp/_news2018/181119.htmlincluding:
Foreign-affiliated jockeys perform well
Looking at performances of Japanese runners over the last 10 years in terms of jockey country affiliation, we observe that horses ridden by foreign-affiliated jockeys achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 36.7%. While foreign horses struggled, we should raise our expectations of Japanese horses ridden by foreign-affiliated jockeys.
Note: Mirco Demuro and Christophe Lemaire obtained permanent JRA licenses in 2015. Accordingly, their country affiliation changed from “foreign” (2014 and before) to “Japan” from 2015.
whole raft of analysis and updates in the right-hand column here, as well as interesting comments from Ryan Moore (Capri) and David Menuisier (Thundering Blue):
http://japanracing.jp/_news2018/181122-05.html
including:
Q: Can you describe Capri’s outstanding points and what kind of race development and positioning would benefit your horse in the coming race?
Ryan: He’s a very straightforward horse. He’s good-minded, very relaxed. He’s two-year-old form was very good. He had a good year as a two-year-old and he has won two classics. Fortunately, this year, he started well then he had a setback after his win. He ran a very credible race in the Arc and I feel that the race in Ascot was too short of a turn around. He didn’t run badly, this horse very rarely runs a bad race – so his form is very good, when you look back when he won the St. Leger, he beat Crystal Ocean and Stradivarius, Rekindling. When he won the Irish Derby he beat Cracksman, Wings of Eagles and Waldgiest who are all group-one winners. He needs to come back to that, to be involved against some high-class horses and show the exceptional form that he was last year – as I’ve said, he’s a straightforward horse and that is probably his quality benchmark facing some of the best horses here like Almond Eye (obviously the best one here), Satono Diamond, Cheval Grand and Suave Richard – it will be a very competitive race.
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Q: How do you view the Japanese horses and are there any horses in particular that you have in mind?
T(David Menuisier): I think it’s an obvious one, the filly, Almond Eye. I’ve seen a few replays and she looks very impressive. I’ve looked at the form of others but it’s really hard for Europeans to gauge the form of Japanese horses. To me, the main thing is for this horse to be feeling great and healthy. And then he will run his race. If he gets beaten that’s fine and if he’s better than them, that’s better.
Q: Last month at Woodbine, which is regarded very similar to Tokyo with the same distance, left-handed and a very long homestretch, Thundering Blue came in an impressive runner-up despite a number of disadvantages during the trip. So everyone here is looking forward with a lot of anticipation because of his good track record over the left-handed course. Can you tell us your own expectations towards the coming race?
T: He’s been absolutely fantastic. He started off in handicaps and he was a low-rated handicapper. He’s so smart, when he was younger, he had the talent but he didn’t really see the point of using it. So it was a matter of trying to get him to enjoy what he was doing. That’s what I say all the time. He’s the boss. He tells us what to do with him. It’s not the other way around. The horse is absolutely great and he’s absolutely thriving at the moment. He can run straight, left-handed or right-handed. He’s very flexible. I just want him to run a good race and try to win as best as possible. The horse is great and hopefully he will run to his best and we will see what his best can be.
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HKJC will be simulcasting the race so usual detailed racecard to follow.
I’ll settle for the pair of them myself Wit. Seem fair prices to me, and although I’ll take Capri win only, Thundering Blue is a bigger fancy.
Capri 20’s
Thundering Blue 25’s EWVtC
for me, if Almond Eye (evens fav) justifies expectations on Sunday then her current 20/1 to win the 2019 Arc will vaporise. with the level of Japanese support she would attract on the day, that 20/1 in effect is a price for her just to show up at the start.
for Sunday itself, may go with the nostrum that foreign jockeys on Japanese horses do much better in this race than do foreign horses, with particular reference to the place prospects of Moreira and (at the prices) Buick on the Satono horses.
first edition of the HKJC pdf racecard for their simulcast now available for download here:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/overseas/english/racecard.aspx?para=/20181125/S1/1
in it the HKJC experts row in with the conventional wisdom that the race is Almond Eye’s to lose.
edit: in the final edition HKJC racecard most of the tipsters quoted go with (now 1.4) Almond Eye but interestingly the Japan expert engaged by HKJC reckons Moreira might get 6.7 third fav Satono Diamond across the line just in front. The other Satono under Buick is currently 78.
Almond Eye wins, smashing the track record by 1.5 seconds.
1 – Almond Eye
2 – Kiseki
3 – Suave Richardvideo links to follow:
– HKJC will be here:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/overseas/english/results.aspx?para=/20181125/S1/1– JRA will be top of left-hand column here:
http://japanracing.jp/en/JRA race report:
http://japanracing.jp/_news2018/pdf/181125.pdf
including:
Triple-Crowned Filly Almond Eye Romps to Victory in Record Time in Japan Cup
This year’s triple crown winner and heavily favored Almond Eye became the second three-year-old filly after Gentildonna in 2012 to dominate the Japan cup. The remarkable starlet prevailed in front of the nearly 100,000 crowd under jockey Christophe Lemaire by a record-breaking 2:20.6, 1.5 seconds faster than the previous record set by Alkaased in 2005….
…Capri was 11th…“The ground was quick and the pace too fast. The winner finishing at 2:20.6 was too good,” commented jockey Ryan Moore.
Trainer: .. having won this race gives her various options to choose from including an overseas challenge that will most certainly be expected of her, although details will have to be discussed with the owners.”
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Enable, see you at Longchamp ?
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