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Nice work, MoM.
Added Final Nudge to Virgilio and Milansbar. That’ll do for me this year.
These are the horses running for me this year:
1 Anibale Fly (win only, Forecast)
2 The Last Samuri (win only)
3 Alpha Des Obeaux (Because of Female Jockey, win only)
4 Perfect Candidate (EW)
5 Tiger Roll (EW, Forecast)
6 Chase The Spud (EW, Forecast)
7 Warrior Tale (EW)
8 Raz De Maree (EW)
9 Baie Des Iles (EW & Because of Female Jockey, win only)
10 Captain Redbeard (EW)
11 Houblon Des Obeaux (EW)
12 Milansbar (EW & Because of Female Jockey, win only, Forecast)
13 Final Nudge (EW, Forecast) Because I’ve been backing horses over such a long time I’d do have a few already lost they are
1 As De Mee
2 Regal Encore
3 Outlander
4 Vicente
5 Present Man (Never entered).
6 Native River (Never entered). The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Some of you lot have more bets than me these days!
My main bets are:
Win bets:
The Last Samuri 40/1 and 29/1
Anibale Fly 14/1 to 13/1
I Just Know 27/1
Houblon Des Obeaux 40/1
(backed those four for a place this morning too).
Virgilio 80/1 and 89/1
(Unfortunately also did non-runners Native Ruler and Wild West Wind ante-post)
Had a couple of savers too, but I won’t bore you with them.Value Is EverythingI’ve gone with:
The Last Samuri
Seeyouatmidnight
Warrior’s Tale
Final Nudge
Carlingford LoughAll each way.
Gas Line Boy & Houblon des Obeaux for me – thinking I might even have a little on
Raz De Maree (his Welsh National runs when second to Native River and winning this year on heavy ground stand him in good stead for this although jumping maybe an issue) and Milansbar because of the Bryony factor as with the year she has had sods law it could be rounded off with winning this.Will be gobsmacked if Blaklion can win this given ground conditions (didn’t think he got home last year on better ground and even taking into account the recent wind op today is a much bigger stamina test). I can very much forsee there being single digit finishers this year given the heavy ground especialy if the rain stays away and it starts to dry up a little and we get that really gluey/holding ground that most can’t get through.
The going will be Soft, sticky. The spruce looks to have been packed a bit tighter for the Foxhunters & Topham, whether it will be so for today we will have to see. It will be a good test of stamina (lots of front runners), plenty will PU as is the recent custom, but the ground is nowhere near Welsh National Heavy. Therefore, we could see an epic performance by a horse carrying more than 11 stone. Anibale Fly, who has already won the contest for most misspellings of his name, is progressive and should improve for the trip so will remain my WIN selection @ 12/1. His jumping convinces me slightly more than Total Recall’s and The Dutchman’s, the latter also is at risk of breaking a blood vessel. Therefore, a restrained Blaklion should be a solid E/W (5 places) backup selection @ 14/1, though he probably has too much weight to win. I favour him over The Last Samuri who has to avoid getting het up in the preliminaries and whose trainer could be in better form. Looking for a couple with less than 11 stone to fill out my four I have settled on Baie Des Iles E/W @ 18/1 (though a female-ridden grey mare would break all the trends!) and, as my customary outsider, Final Nudge E/W @ 50/1, who may emerge best of the Chepstow protagonists.
Also passed over:
Raz De Maree – place chance but probably needs genuine Heavy & can a 13-y-o win in this day & age?
Seeyouatmidnight – can make mistakes, basically all wins when making all, not had ideal prep.
I Just Know – will bid to make all in a race full of front runners, first time had Soft in Class 1 & jumps well but form of last time may be overrated and as likely to fade for rather than improve for extra distance.
Gas Line Boy – all best form in Class 2 and not convinced will stay on going.
Valseur Lido – prefers better ground, won’t stay on Soft, out of form.
Alpha Des Obeaux – not been in best of form, probably likes better going, Soft won’t help his fluency or chance of staying.
Perfect Candidate – did have interrupted prep last year but not convinced will stay on this going.
Shantou Flyer – wants genuine Heavy, won’t stay, hard race last time and form of Ultima dubious.
Tenor Nivernais – never able to reproduce Ascot Feb 2017 form, best RH, doubtful stayer.
Carlingford Lough – not a plot! Has never been the same since Apr 2016-Jan 2017 injury absence & now 12, often lacks fluency.
Tiger Roll – think Chelt XC was the target, going not ideal for small horse who is not the most fluent. Doubt can reproduce best form here.
Vieux Lion Rouge – not convinced by form of horse and stable, seems to have proved will not stay, best at Haydock.
Chase The Spud – wants genuine heavy, last 2 runs shocking, likely to struggle in this class of race.
Warriors Tale – like Paul Nicholls I’m not convinced will stay on the ground.
Pleasant Company – out of form this season, even if avoids very bad mistake this year I’m not convinced will stay effectively enough.
Ucello Conti – trainer is bullish but even he has not gotten this horse to win, can’t be relied upon to get round & not sure will stay well enough anyway.
Saint Are – going is against and trainer is in woeful form.
Virgilio – is up 10 furlongs on Soft ground & his background is essentially as a 2 1/2-miler.
Maggio – a 13-y-o who needs to come back to form of two years ago, not jumped well GN course previously, not certain to stay.
Pendra – must have Good, not stay on Heavy/Soft in 2016.
Buywise – not what was, won’t stay as per 2016.
Childrens List – prefers better going, not proven in Class 1, not sure will stay.
Lord Windermere – prefers better going, now 12 & RPR of only 133 on favourable going last year so didn’t really run that well.
Captain Redbeard – a horse I really like, took time to catch on as hurdler then as a chaser so on second course run could get the hang of it but don’t think will stay strongly enough. Hope I’m wrong.
Houblon Des Obeaux – I have no faith will reproduce current level of ability in this competitive a race.
Bless The Wings – yet another 13-y-o, probably wants better going, best at XC nowadays.
Milansbar – will probably do too much in front in effort to avoid being crowded, jockey can get carried away with pace, how long will blinkers keep working and how many slogs can horse take in the space of a few months?
Double Ross – looks on the downgrade & unlikely to stay at trip/going combination.
Road To Riches – not sure will stay & has completely lost form since bad fall a few years ago so retirement rather than subjecting horse to fiercely competitive, huge field race over these fences would be kinder.
Thunder And Roses – should stay but jumping has become a big concern.
Delusionofgrandeur – won’t stay.Good luck all.
It’s Warriors Tale I really want today, as he wins me by far the most cash. Had a superb day yesterday, landing a nice double on Terrafort & Santini… I also had Ultragold too to make it a 100% day.
I’ve backed Ucello Conte 20-1 & Anibelle Fly 12-1 both e/w.
Best of luck all.
I’ve just got the most horrible feeling Thunder and Roses is going to see it out best in the conditions. I’m not backing him as i honestly don’t want to see Gigginstown win with another plot job. Not very professional of me i know, but it’s just my gut!
My main bet has been put on Gas Line Boy 25/1.
Smaller bet on Tiger Roll 12/1.
That’s it for me. Hope they call come home safe and sound, and that you all get a run for your money.
Anibale Fly WIN at 16s
The Dutchamn WIN at 28s
Virgilio WIN at 100 (small stake)
Warriors Tale EW at 40s
Milansbar EW at 33s
Gas Line Boy EW at 25sGood luck to everybody!
Got some free ‘bet vouchers’ so added some more.
Total Recall 25-1, The Dutchman 33-1, Ucello Conti 50-1. All ew 5 places.
Free bets – I Just Know ew, Milansbar ew, both 6 places. Seeyouatmidnight win only.good luck all with your bets.
The Dutchman is my main bet, smaller bets on Saint Are, Thunder and Roses, Lord Windermere
Two to blow the stats people out of the water, Raz De Maree and Baie Des Iles.
RAZ DE MAREE won nicely at Chepstow to prove he’s no back number at 13, is suited by the conditions and is capable of getting in the mix. He’s had a nice rest after that race which can’t have done any harm.
BAI DES ILES would tear the stats book up but is another ideally suited by a real test of stamina. Her Punchestown run puts her right in a contender today.
JamieDB9007 –
Is it just me or have Gigginstown bought another national, but with more discretion? They are, and have been for while now, the most powerful national hunt owner. Surpassing the mighty JP McManus and expanding…admiration for the investment, but to what end? These aren’t the millionare making stallions of Coolmore, so where justifies the investment? Exactly the same as their airline. Saturate the market, then dominate it, own it.
They have two of the best handicapped horses in the race, both of whom are multiple grade 1 winners. Both are ridiculously well handicapped, have their documented issues, seem out of love with the game, therefore regarded as no-hopers. Both have grade 1 wins in heavy (VL fell at the last), yet connections state they both need good ground. Giggs dominate all is NH these days, therefore I can see a Giggs forecast in the national tomorroW with apparent no hopers, Road To Riches and Valsuer Lido. Hindsight is a great thing….grade 1 winner in a handicap…10, 12, 14lb etc lower than ever before……don’t like the operation, but they make the most out of their investments.They’re not running these “past it, not come back from injury” grade 1 horses for the fun of it…in my very humble, yet cynical opinion.They don’t ‘saturate the market’. Yes they have hundreds of horses running for them and buy some horses for expensive sums but 90% of their purchases are store horses, bought for <150K.
Every single horse they own tries 999 times out of 1000, there’s no other owner around you can say that about IMO.
The only flaw Gigginstown Have is that they keep all their horses these days with a select 6? Trainers, where as JP spreads his wealth amongst hundreds. But I can’t blame them for leaning on GE more and more.My original 2, Mysteree and Cogri didn’t make the cut. I backed Warrior’s Tale
at 50s a couple of days ago, although Paul Nicholl’s comments that he would need it
good to get the distance, don’t exactly fill me with hope.I’ve reviewed them all again, and I’m pretty keen on Seeyouatmidnight so at 14s he’s
my main bet. I’ve also had a bit e/w on Vieux Lion Rouge at 33s and The Dutchman
at 28s.It’s probably money down the drain, but it’s just incredible to think of the Road To Riches
of 2 years ago, running off 142. Maybe he’s gone at the game, but if the Aintree fences can ignite
something in him he would be so well in. He’ll probably get pulled up, but at 66s I can’t resist having
a few quid on.Good luck all
My 100% book for very soft ground:
6/1 Anibale Fly, 9/1 Total Recall, 14/1 I Just Know, 16/1 The Last Samuri, 16/1 Baie Des Iles, 18/1 Tiger Roll, 18/1 Seeyouatmidnight, 20/1 Blaklion, 22/1 Houblon Des Obeaux, 22/1 The Dutchman, 22/1 Gas Line Boy, 25/1 Ucello Conti, 33/1 Milansbar, 33/1 Carlingford Lough, 50/1 Raz De Maree, 50/1 Shantou Flyer, 66/1 Chase The Spud, 66/1 Warriors Tale, 80/1 Vieux Lion Rouge, 100/1 Captain Redbeard, 100/1 Saint Are, 100/1 Virgilio, 132/1 Perfect Candidate, 132/1 Pleasant Company, 150/1 Thunder And Roses, 200/1 Buywise, 200/1 Final Nudge, 200/1 Road To Riches, 250/1 Delusionsofgrandieur, 300/1 Alpha Des Obeaux, 400/1 Bless The Wings, 400/1 Lord Windermere, 400/1 Valseur Lido, 500/1 Children’s List, 800/1 Maggio, 800/1 Tenor Nivernais, 1000/1 Pendra, 1000/1 Double Ross,Value Is Everything
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