Grand National Trial 2018

Only fifteen left at the five day stage, but it’s a strong fifteen, and thankfully, these days they actually run it once the weights have been framed for Aintree.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/23/haydock/2018-02-17/692568

The field is headed by the 1, 2 from last year, namely Blaklion, and Vieux Lion Rouge. Blaklion gave Vieux Lion Rouge 6lbs last year, and that made the difference, so he has his work cut out to give him 11 lbs this time around. Blaklion is arguably a better horse this time around, but it still seems a big ask to me, and if he can do it, I could just see connections reconsidering The Gold Cup. To win this would be a monster performance, and I just can#t bring myself to write him off completely, as big an ask as it seems.

Vieux Lion Rouge hasn’t been seen much this season, with only the one run under his belt, but a similar approach worked the oracle last season, and he seems to have rock solid claims here, and the 10’s with BetVic looks very generous. Hard to pick holes in him, and the only complication I can see is from stablemate Daklondike, who’s also in the same ownership, but with Daklondike holding an Eider entry, I’d be surprised to see both of them heading here. Daklondike himself would have claims here, based on the manner of his last win, but surely VLR is the stables #1 for this.

The Dutchman could also be Newcastle bound, but with the stable back in form, they’ll surely let him take his chance here. As we’ve seen already this season, some horses just perform better round here, and his second to Sam Spinner, followed by his win in The Peter Marsh, would make this the preferred target surely. He beat a decent field that day, though the manner of his win didn’t suggest he wanted as big a rise as 13lbs, but he’s a horse going the right way, he certainly promised loads as a novice, and with that stable form in mind, he just has to be given serious consideration here.

The Venetia Williams pair, Yala Enki, and Emperors Choice can both claim course form here, though you have to go back a few years, to The Fixed Brush Hurdle for that Yala Enki success. He’s flattered to deceive a few times since then, and though he has a good swing in the weights here with The Dutchman from The Peter Marsh, I just think he has to step up a bit, and there’s the suspicion that he hasn’t been finishing his races as you would expect. I’ve said many times that he has a big prize in him, but I’ll very reluctantly pass him over this time, and hope he takes up his engagement at Kempton. I know how that’ll end lol. He seems to have been around for ever, but Emperors Choice is only a 10 year old. After a spell in the doldrums, he fairly bounced back here in December, and crucially, he won in the manner of a horse with a bit up his cuff. He’s still at the right end of the handicap, and he’ll come here off the same mark as he won The Welsh National. I give him solid each way claims here, and he’s very big at 20’s. I suppose the gamble with him would be waiting to see the final decs, as we’re borderline surely on any firms going 4 places, but his chances of making that first four seem good to me, and I might just wait. The temptation though to play at 20’s just now is there though, and rightly or wrongly, his Eider entry will be enough for me to hold fire.

Another with course form is a horse I’ve already bet for this, Three Faces West. He won in a canter here last season, and though back here in December, he took a spill, if back to his best after injury, then he’s weighted to romp this. It’s never that simple though, and the yard is badly out of form, and he hasn’t fully convinced that he’s over his setback of last year, not to mention his rather unique approach to fences. He’s a very risky selection then, and I didn’t go mad on him, but the engine is there, and before that setback last season, I thought it was a foregone conclusion that his future lay outwith handicaps, and off his current mark of 144, I had to risk a few quid.

Mysteree won nicely round here just over a year ago, and he just seems more at home at a flatter track like Haydock, and this kind of test looks more suitable than the likes of Chepstow. He’s in The Eider though, and that does temper enthusiasm for an Ante-Post play at this stage. Nice horse, who would have loads in his favour, should he trap here.

Silsol ran no sort of race here in November, behind Sam Spinner, but he was entitled to that, as that was his fist run since beating the likes of Native River over hurdles at Wetherby. I didn’t see that much wrong with his fifth in The Welsh National, and I don’t think he deserves to be 20’s off the back of that, and I think he’s way underpriced. Another though with an Eider entry.

Kerry Lee is represented by Krackatoa King, and Alfie Spinner. Krackatoa had no excuses at Warwick, but Alfie is in the form of his life, not hammered for his great run at Chepstow, in The Welsh National, and though a 13yo, it would take a brave man to write off his each way claims here.

We’ll never know how Wild West Wind would have fared in The Welsh National, but what’s not up for debate is how he was travelling that day, before falling, and the manner of his win there in December was very impressive. I think he’s good value at 6lbs higher, and he has leading claims if over that fall.

Dan Skelton could also be double handed, with Sir Mangan & Captain Chaos in the mix. Sir Mangan was well touted for Warwick, but off of this mark he came up short, and he also has a Kempton entry, while a test like this is a complete unknown for The Captain, and it just has to be a watching brief for him until I see how he copes.

Joe Farrell doesn’t really appeal, unless it badly cuts up, and he’s another with an the option of Newcastle.

A few alternative arrangements then for the majority of these, and I’m particularly keen to see Emperors Choice go to Newcastle, as I think he’s still weighted to win, and I’d also like to see Daklondike make the same journey.

With that in mind, I’ll side with Vieux Lion Rouge, I just missed the 14’s, but that 10’s looks fair, and I’ll have some of that win only. There are enough question marks over Three Faces West, but happy enough to be on at 16’s, as he looked the real deal last year. Just the small matter of jumping, yard form, and an injury to overcome lol.

Three Faces West 16’s
Vieux Lion Rouge 10’s