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I love these big Group Sprints, but not races I have particularly big bets in. Fairly sure I’ll be going to Haydock on Saturday, so I have to at least have an early go.
Bit tricky with the weather forecast, but st this stage, it’s a cracking line up.
Really keen on Brando, and though not my kind of price, the 5’s on him here looks fair, and he’d be my main hope. As good as ever this year, I don’t think he’s finished progressing, and if the rains came, I wouldn’t be too concerned. It would certainly suit him more than others, and everything looks in his favour here.
At considerably bigger odds is my old pal Growl. I love it when he’s underestimated/overpriced, and though not his finest hour at Ripon last time, I’ll hope that he lines up here, and give me a proper run at the 50’s, which looks very fair, even with the chance he might not trap.
I also like Washington DC a lot, and really hopeful he can pop up a price one day, but I’ll happily look at him on the day should he be declared, and hopefully he’ll still be a price. He’s 25’s just now, but I have a feeling he won’t make the journey.
Brando the main hope for me then, and happy with Growl as backup, and I’ve topped up on him at 66’s this morning
GL
Brando is the best sprinter in this field, for my money. But I’ll wait for draws etc.
The one I currently like is BLUE POINT. I’m a big fan of this horse, and I’m hoping he won’t mind a bit of cut in the ground.
The ground’s going to be pretty nasty which will curtail the chances of Blue Point, Washington DC, Magical Memory and Limato but not Harry Angel in my opinion.
I think Harry’ll win and 9/4 is more than good enough for me. Tasleet, The Tin Man and Brando are all worrysome but at the end of the day I think Harry’s the best horse regardless of conditions.
I’m not a favourite backer normally, but I have to agree with Charles that HARRY ANGEL
has very strong credentials in this. Even though he would be happier if the rain stopped
falling now, I think he will handle it well enough. The O’Brien pair Caravaggio and
Spirit Of Valor would also cope with it properly soft, but it’s very hard to know who
O’Brien will send over, if any at all. The one that I would love to have a bet on at a
big price, 66/1, is SPIRITUAL LADY. She has looked very
impressive in her 4 runs, winning 3 blowing raspberries the rest, and did well to finish
5th in the Wetherbys Super Sprint after being hampered at the start and on ground too firm
for her. She will love the ground, probably more than any, if the rain keeps falling. The
thing is I think she’s more likely to head to York the following day, unless perhaps this
cuts up badly if the ground is bottomless. It’s a difficult one, if she is declared tomorrow
I think her price will fall. I think to be on the safe side I’ll have a bit on her, without
going mad, and if she does appear I can top up.TASLEET is the interesting one for me. He goes on soft ground , in fact you could argue that he is best on it and ran far too free last time and if Jim can settle him I think he will have an outstanding chance
Although ive backed the tin man, even though the ground is a slight concern i think the 9/4 about harry angel is more than worth taking a chance on if your a fan of the horse and with the trainer not looking at hiding behind thengrond as an excuse, ill have a little bit on
As I half expected, Spiritual Lady didn’t make the line up. I mentioned 2 of O’Briens,
Caravaggio and SPIRIT OF VALOR 33/1. and it’s SOV
that makes the trip over. He won well on soft/heavy as a 2 year old, and not many in
this will relish if it comes up really soft. He won well (“comfortably”) in his last
but one race at the Curragh, and found trouble last time out in the Lennox when trying
to challenge, although he looked held at the time, and was heavily eased by Ryan Moore.
He’s maybe not the best horse in the race, but the ground is going to be quite a leveller
and it’s very much in his favour. It should fall to Harry Angel, but at 33/1 I think he’s
worth a bit e/w at those odds.I’m drawn to two in particular, given that all of the pace is high up in the field. These are MR LUPTON and SPIRIT OF VALOR.
Mr Lupton has got a good draw, and he likes Haydock having won here before. He’s got pieces of form on ground with some ease, and he was a fast-finishing fifth in this race last year after getting a clattering after breaking out of the stalls. He’s lost his way somewhat this season, so somebody please tell me I’m crazy for considering him?
Spirit of Valor, being by War Front, should hate the ground. He won on easy ground before, but I think he ran no sort of race at Goodwood because of how soft the ground was. Having said that, at 33/1 I might be happy to take a chance on him. Pace horses over C&D have a great record overall, and he looks the likeliest pace angle for me. I can’t see the drop in trip inconveniencing him, and if the ground isn’t too bad or if he handles it he should run a big race at the price.
It is another vote from me for Spirit of Valour at 33-1 each way. I have nothing to add from the excellent summaries from Degaussed + BigG
Already backed Harry Angel for this ante-post as thought he couldn’t possibly go bigger than 9/4, pretty amazed to see 5/2 readily available now, even with the ground concerns. He’s a bullet of a horse and after a decent payday for me when I was sure he’d reverse form with Caravaggio LTO I’m happy to go in again – may top up if he continues to drift, and possibly look at a saver on Brando.
On this ground, so many at the top of the market will struggle in my opinion.
So Brando and Magical Memory would be the two I’d like. But the former is too short at 3/1 so my bet for the race is the latter.
Magical Memory @ 14/1
Clive Cox apparently going to speak to Kirby about the ground after the first race re: Harry Angel’s participation
11/4 for Harry is generous to say the least. Surely Cox will only run him if he thinks he’ll win and if he doesn’t then no harm done and you get your money back. I’ve resisted the urge to go in again having already got on at 5/2.
Sorry to see Spirit Of Valour being pulled out having seen a few supporters here.
Seeing that the ground is listed as heavy and that many have never run of it, I’m willing to take a small chance on Blue Point at big odds.
I have followed Brando for a while. I had him in the Ayr Gold Cup last year.
I backed him on his debut this season and felt he would follow up next time but he ran a howler. He earned a RPR of 16 that day and it was a clear blot. He seemed a decent each-way play in the July Cup and he bolted up last time in France when I missed him due to a family bereavement.
I think 4/1 is fair with a doubt about Harry Angel and Blue Point on this surface.
The Tin Man normally pops up when I am against him, so that could be an omen for his fans.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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