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VVM goes Mares
Confirmed?
You can probably get treatment for what I’d call ‘Birds Nest Syndrome’ but, in a race where there are few with a chance, I reckon 14/1 The New One is a very decent price. I’d be looking for a few of the front ones to cut each other’s throats, but The New One will likely be thereabouts.
The New One does not have anything like the pace required to win a Champion Hurdle.
My Tent Or Yours 50/1 EW backers are all in clover. I don’t think we could have wished for a better line-up, other than Moon Racer going to the Supreme. Just got to hope he lives up to his part of the bargain now.
My 100% Book on good, good-soft:
9/2 Buveur D’Air, 9/2 Yanworth, 6/1 Brain Power, 13/2 Ptit Mouchoir, 11/1 The New One, 15/1 My Tent Or Yours, 18/1 Moon Racer, 25/1 Cyrus Darius, 28/1 Footpad, 33/1 Chtibello, 40/1 Sceau Royal, 40/1 Wicklowe Brave.Brain Power @ 15/2, Cyrus Darius @ 40/1 and The New One 14/1 are my bets at current prices.
Value Is Everything9-2 yanworth?
I’ll have a bit of that ginger
imo Yanworth has a 19% chance of winning, Judge. Adding 1% (20% = 4/1) would be too little a mark up, so if I were a bookie would need to offer 7/2. But I am not a bookie. :lol:
Buveur D’Air 19%, Yanworth 19%, Brain Power 14%, Petit Mouchoir 13%, The New One 8.5%, My Tent Or Yours 6.25%, Moon Racer 5.25% Cyrus Darius 3.75%, Footpad 3.25%, Chtibello 3%, Sceau Royal 2.5%, Wicklowe Brave 2.5%.
Value Is EverythingNot sure Ginger bookmakers would last long
You might not be sure, Judge.
I am. :lol:Value Is EverythingMy Tent Or Yours has not won since Feb 2014 and that was a Flat race where he was 1/5. His Champion Hurdle level form is way in the past and although this is not a great race, he has plenty to find with Yanworth from the Christmas Hurdle. A legendary weak finisher over the years his form is now at least a stone below his peak days.
Still 50/1 is big odds and he might just snatch a place in an open year. I think this would have to be in Jeff Albertson “Worst renewal ever!” territory for My Tent to pitch up and win this Champion Hurdle. Nicky Henderson is some guy though and he knows the ropes, meaning My Tent might be hard to peg back, however, on balance My Tent is more likely to be flaps. Tent analogy over.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Only northern rep is CYRUS DARIUS who was left clear of his only serious rival in Kelso’s Morebattle to come home an easy winner. That will have brought him and Malcolm Jefferson has a high opinion of this one. He might conceivably pick off place money if a few of the favoured runners burst themselves trying to win. He’s only been beaten once over hurdles, on his seasonal debut when in need of the race.
Only northern rep is CYRUS DARIUS who was left clear of his only serious rival in Kelso’s Morebattle to come home an easy winner. That will have brought him and Malcolm Jefferson has a high opinion of this one. He might conceivably pick off place money if a few of the favoured runners burst themselves trying to win. He’s only been beaten once over hurdles, on his seasonal debut when in need of the race.
We agree with both The New One and Cyrus Darius, Rob.
Although up to now I have win only.Value Is EverythingMy Tent Or Yours has not won since Feb 2014 and that was a Flat race where he was 1/5. His Champion Hurdle level form is way in the past and although this is not a great race, he has plenty to find with Yanworth from the Christmas Hurdle. A legendary weak finisher over the years his form is now at least a stone below his peak days.
Still 50/1 is big odds and he might just snatch a place in an open year. I think this would have to be in Jeff Albertson “Worst renewal ever!” territory for My Tent to pitch up and win this Champion Hurdle. Nicky Henderson is some guy though and he knows the ropes, meaning My Tent might be hard to peg back, however, on balance My Tent is more likely to be flaps. Tent analogy over.
My tent or yours might be more suited to Cheltenham Steve, but on the face of his recent runs
I think the 16/1 on offer is too skinny for my liking. One thing I can’t get my head around, is
that if MTOY is a genuine 16/1 shot, then what value is Ch’Tibello at 33/1. They met at Haydock
in November and Ch’Tibello was a worthy winner, with MTOY over 4L behind, albeit he was giving
2lbs. They met again in the in the Christmas Hurdle, off level weights, and again Ch’Tibello
has him over 2L behind. I think Ch’tibello’s last run was improved form, beaten 1L by Yanworth,
and it could be that he had a breathing problem which stopped him going through with his challenge
at the end, when it looked like he might win the race. If the breathing problem has brought about
any improvement, then he is at the least in with a good e/w chance. I think he is being overlooked
at 33/1.I was surprised to see TimeForm with My Tent Or Yours as third best here. They go 1.Yanworth 2.Buveur D’air 3.My Tent Or Yours.
No horse aged 10 or more has won since Sea Pigeon and if you take his wins aged 10 and 11 out, you go way back to Hatton’s Grace in 1951 for a double digit aged winner.
I feel the ground may be lively enough for Yanworth and Buveur D’air. Yanworth needs to hurdle better and any errors will be harder to overcome on the faster surface.
I’ve been backing Brain Power all this year, trickling little bets every week and my Festival may depend on him if some of my better looking ante-post bets fail. It’s fingers crossed in a big way for me in the Champion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
To be fair, Timeform don’t say MTOY will win.
Thing about MTOY is he’s often placed at Cheltenham and is far more consistent on goodish ground.
I wasn’t keen due to a lack of enthusiasm at Kempton, but ridden that day as a spoiler with unfamiliar prominent tactics to benefit JP’s other horse Yanworth. In other races this year it’s been pretty soft, so possible to almost ignore this seson’s form. True he’s pretty old but this is a poor Champion Hurdle. What’s the stats on old horses placing?
imo A better value place bet than a win or ew, can understand Timeform having him as 3rd.Value Is EverythingMoon Racer looks way too short at 9/1 in my opinion. His early form was struggling to stand up but the win of Ballyandy in the Betfair Hurdle seems to have have excited fans of the other Bumper winner.
No Bumper winner has landed the Champion Hurdle and Moon Racer has had his problems. He needs to defy a few trends here and probably has to run a stone better than he has before. On balance, he should be bigger odds than he is. I had no problem in deciding to put more on Brain Power at just a point less in some places.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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