2017 Champion Hurdle

stevecaution wrote:

Limini wasn’t up to winning a Champion Hurdle and I’ll oppose Vroum Vroum Mag if she runs, for the same reason.

I just don’t see it with Vroum Vroum Mag, Brough Scott was almost having a multiple orgasm on ITV when he was talking about her but I think she has been winning pretty soft races and I think that even in a weakish year, she would struggle for pace in a Champion Hurdle.

I think Yanworth is appalling value at 9/4 and no value at 3/1. There must be a faster horse than him here. Buveur D’air hacked up last time but he beat statues at best.

Moon Racer was 33/1 but is now as low as 8/1, seemingly because Ballyandy won the Betfair Hurdle. That form looks fragile to me but some obviously feel that both Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes coincidentally improved almost a stone on the same day. It seems more logical that both were simply well handicapped in the Betfair by being prepared via attaining a nice mark for the big pot.

I keep topping up on Brain Power every time he hits 15/2 or better. Yes he is coming from Handicap company but he gave weight and a thrashing to his opponents last time up and those looking at Yanworth and Buveur D’air have to look at the spectre of Rayvin Black lurking in the formlines of these allegedly better class trials.

It’s just possible Brain Power could yet line up with not a lot to be frightful of on the day.

He’s still 15/2 and easily the best value for this race, he looks faster than Yanworth and Buveur D’air to my eyes and he works with Altior at home. Perhaps that is for a good reason?

Bp for me too, 2/1 to be placed on the exchanges is a great bet

I don’t think there is any stand out Champion in the race, Yanworth probably deserves
his place at the head of the market. I put up Ch’Tibello a good while
back at 50/1, and I know Bobby (VTC) is on at ridiculous prices. If Yanworth is truly
a 3/1 shot, then it beats me how Ch’Tibello can still be got at 40/1. He beat My Tent
Or Yours fair and square at Haydock in November, although many thought that wasn’t MTOY’s
true running. He ran a good race in the Christmas Hurdle behind Yanworth and The New One,
running on really strongly at the finish, I thought that was improved form. In the Kingwell
last month, I though he was going to win and he did nose ahead of Yanworth between the last
two, but he didn’t seem to go through with it just at the death, and went down by a length,
with Sceau Royal 1 1/4 behind him.

Dan Skelton also thought he was going to win that one, but they thought there was a breathing
problem right at the end when he appeared to stall. He had a wind operation, and although it was
always going to be touch and go, he’s thought to have recovered well and is set to take his chance.
If he has improved for the wind op, and at 5 he’s improving anyway, he’s a huge price for this.
I’ve already got the 50s, as I mentioned, but I thought I couldn’t let him go at that price. I tried
to place my bet online with Boylesports, but it was refused and I was directed to contact them on the
0800 number. I managed to get on the bet I wanted at 40/1. As soon as I checked to see the bet had gone
on my account, I saw they had cut him to 33/1. At this time Skybet are the only firm still standing
40/1. If anyone is interested, I would recommend getting on there smartish, I doubt that will last
for long.

thejudge1 wrote:

Hows he going to beat Yanworth, if he couldn’t beat him on a flat track off a slow pace?

Well he was damned near to beating him last time out, when he appeared to choke at the end. If the
wind operation has brought about improvement, and he can see out his race better, then he has a
decent chance of being closer than the 1 length he was beaten by, whilst having a breathing
problem.

Feel free not to back him Judge, all I’m doing is putting forward my opinion, and in the process
explained why I thought he could improve and be in with a chance. I was of the opinion I had already
explained my reasons, but I’ve repeated them for your benefit, just in case I wasn’t clear enough.

@Vautour

Yes, I got Annie Power wrong last year but she was a good but better than Vroum Vroum Mag in terms of rating and what she had actually won coming into the race.

Annie Power was runner up in a World Hurdle and would have won the Mares Hurdle but for falling. The big doubt for me was the 2 miles of the Champion Hurdle and it remains her only major success at that distance.

I did The New One each way at odds that would cover the bet easily, he was backed into almost half that price but, of course, he was 4th and didn’t cover my bet. Looking back at the race, it remains an unspectacular renewal and no doubt that helped Annie to cope with the drop in trip.

Vroum Vroum Mag on the other hand remains a mare seemingly mired in a rating about 10 lbs short of what would win an average Champion Hurdle. Her Punchestown Hurdle win from the crock prone My Tent Or Yours and Identity Thief does not convince me. My Tent Or Yours has not won for more than three years now and Identity Thief has looked like his name should perhaps be Non-Entity Thief of late, with another utterly tame effort last time, where the jockey seemed uninterested in even bothering to ask the horse for any more effort, almost giving up a long way from home.

If Vroum Vroum Mag runs like she did last time, she may as well stay at home and Apples Jade has done next to nothing for her form. If this is Willie’s best shot then he’s in big trouble this year.

For the sake of the race I hope something like Yanworth, Buveur D’air, Brain Power or Petit Mouchoir win this race. At least they are horses with potential for the future. The New One and My Tent Or Yours have been there and tried it enough already, it would be sad for the state of the division if they are the top dogs now. Hopefully something will emerge to put some class back into this Champion Hurdle, a Champion for the future and not a ghost from Cheltenham Past.

Yours in sport, Jacob Marley.

Vautour wrote:

Yep, I think it will be one of those 4. I think the jockey will play a major role this year. Cooper v Walsh. I think PM needs to be well clear of Yanworth going to the last

Cooper 4.5 on Betfair to be top jockey WO walsh.

thejudge1 wrote:

MTOY or TNO won’t win. MTOY is a hound who doesn’t get up the hill and TNO has zero cruising speed. If you could combine the two you’d have had a champion hurdler by now, unfortunately you can’t.

Increasingly of the belief that Yanworth will win. I just don’t think the others will relish the hill like he will. If you look at videos of last years supreme, or the greatwood, none of Petit Mouchior, Beuver D’air or Brain Power exactly impressed with their ability to handle Cheltenham.

Agree re TNO, although hoping MTOY can place for me as I have 50/1 EW.

I am surprised Brain Power is not getting more support. He wants good ground which he didn’t get in the Greatwood but will get here. This horse has the speed to work with Altior at home and performed well when thrown into the grade 1 over at punchestown last year. He is clearly improving and could be anything, but has little to find on ratings with Yanworth. I am increasingly inclined to think this is Yanworth’s race but at 3/1 vs 8/1 I think the unexposed Brain Power is better value and all things considered, worth the risk

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again the novices from last year were a terrific bunch especially the supreme lot.
I still like yanworth the most but I can see BD and PM being there aswell.
If BD or PM wins I think it proves last years supreme was incredibly strong since they both got beat well by altior who we all know is going to be a superstar.

Oddly enough the two race reports that I have read for the Greatwood Hurdle state that Brain Power was outpaced in the race. That doesn’t tie in with the notion that he was fast enough but faded up the hill.

It was his first race of the season and perhaps he wasn’t fully tuned up. When the Champion Hurdle is the ultimate target, there is no sense pushing the horse for a race on seasonal debut in December.

Brain Power’s next race didn’t pan out at all going forward but he idled in front that day. On the revised handicap terms he seemed to be up against it at the weights with Consul De Thaix next time but he absolutely confirmed that he had had plenty in hand the time before, by giving a stone and a thrashing to his old opponent.

Brain Power probably needs finessing for the closing stages and I am hoping Petit Mouchoir can set the race up for him. My ideal scenario is to see Brain Power tracking the lead and then making ground faster than Yanworth and Buveur D’air after they have all cleared the final flight.

I doubt there is a lot between the first handful in the betting here in abilty. I would want 5/1 at least to get involved. Bet Victor went 7/1 Yanworth in the aftermath of his last win but I wasn’t tempted. Others obviously were but I just feel he may lack the gears at a key stage on the day. Brain Power just seemed to have potential improvement as a younger hurdler, improving at the right time. Another 5 lbs increase in ability may be enough to see him lift this race.