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Bet365 Gold Cup 2017

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  • #1296378
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15095

    Brings the curtain down on The NH Season, and after a few seasons in the doldrums, it really has picked up over the last few years.

    Still the best part of 3 weeks to chew it over, but a few catch the eye, and a few firms have it priced up.

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/54/sandown/2017-04-29/671147

    Rock The Kasbah – I think this horse has bags of potential, and I was really happy with his run behind the very decent American last time. Considering connections, he’s surely got this as a serious target, and I think 33-1 is a whopping price for a horse who’ll go here off of 142.

    Theatre Guide – He’ll certainly not be off of 142, he’s 10 lbs higher, but after looking the winner 3 out in The Betbright (Brennan was looking round), he didn’t find that much. I think he’s better than he showed that day, though in all fairness, I think he’d have been vulnerable to the winner, who was given a peach of a ride, and was a deserved winner. I thought he ran “ok” in The Ultima, doing his best work at the end, but in his favour now, looking back at those 2 runs, is that the Tizzard stable wasn’t firing. No such problems now though, and after an excellent Aintree, I think we’ll see a different horse here. He’s massive at 40’s, and has to be bet at that price.

    Pendra – If all well with him, then I could see a nice spin round here on the spring ground as perfect for him. Unfortunately he’s got Irish National written all over him, and at the shorter odds of 20’s, it makes sense to hold off for now.

    The Druids Nephew, The Young Master – This Mullholland pair will surely be ready for this, after their respective Aintree/Cheltenham dissapointments, both available at 20’s. Both ran screamers in it last year, and The Young Master did me proud, and I’ll be hard pushed not to side with him again, especially at that price, and I see no reason why the both of them can’t figure again.

    Present Man – This Paul Nicholls runner probably doesn’t get the credit he deserves, but it’s not every day you get a frequent winner of his available at 33’s

    Label Des Obeaux – Another who is probably better than his Cheltenham run, and might be worth another chance at 33’s

    Rathlin Rose – Made the headlines under Capt Guy Disney, and the competition he’ll face here will be a million miles from what he’s faced in those amateur races, but Sandown isn’t for every horse, and I wouldn’t be in a rush to write him off at 25’s.

    Vyta Du Roc – I’ve said recently that I suspect NJH doesn’t treat The National completely seriously, but he does this race, for sure, and I’ve suspected that although he’s been a disappointment, there’s a definite plan with him, and he’s now low enough in the weights to be a major player here. 25’s for those who want to keep the faith.

    What’s Happening – Slightly disappointing in The Kim Muir, but his comeback run at Exeter was decent, and he has the sort of profile I look for here. I think he has a few pounds in hand, and would end the season perfectly for Tom George and Adrian Heskin, who’ve had a season to remember. 33’s

    Kruzhlinin – I’ve bet him for Ayr, so I hope he doesn’t head here, but wherever he goes, he shouldn’t be 33’s for this. Wouldn’t be the first to go for both prizes, so I’ve not written him off here.

    Doctor Harper – I’m not giving up on him, and maintain that he will win a decent prize at some point. I’ll see how the races looks before considering covering him. 33’s

    Far too early really to have a go, what with The Irish National, and Scottish Nationals to come first, but I have bet a couple, in Rock The Kasbah at 33, and Theatre Guide at 40’s. I’ve got Pendra on another line at 20’s, and that would be a decent payout should he win here, so no point backing him again, and I think he’ll go Fairyhouse anyway.

    That shortlist above isn’t exhaustive, so I’ll hold fire with anymore, but particularly interested in The Young Master, What’s Happening, and Present Man.

    For now….
    Rock The Kasbah ew 33’s
    Theatre Guide ew 40’s

    #1296417
    FrankieMac
    Participant
    • Total Posts 187

    Any chance Flintham runs here?

    #1296465
    Avatar photoLemons68
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    • Total Posts 623

    Frankie I am in the same boat with Blaklion, I’d love to know if there was a chance he could go here.

    He has been my horse to follow this season, and although he has not won he gave me a big thrill on Saturday at 40-1. I would like to have one more bet on him, but I might wait for news. He is 14-1 just now and if I know he recovered ok from Saturday, 14-1 would be good enough for me.

    The other horses I may bet are Perfect Candidate & Label Des Obeaux at 33-1

    #1296575
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15095

    Pendra Not declared for Fairyhouse, which makes that 20’s look even better.

    #1296579
    Avatar photoCharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 2031

    I don’t like horses coming here from the National and it’s interesting that only Tidal Bay has carried over 11 stone to victory in the past 10 years.

    Personally I’d be keen to keep Vyta Du Roc on my side. Now 9 pounds lower than 5th in the Scottish National and ran well in the Hennessy before excuses last twice.

    #1297174
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15095

    Charles, haven’t added him yet, as I’d be venturing into “book” territory, but his Vyta’s absence from The Scottish National, makes him of even more interest here. He’s still widely available at 25’s as well.

    If I do a “book”, I’ll be adding The Young Master for definite.

    #1297946
    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7688

    Have placed my bets for this:
    Theatre Guide 40-1
    Pendra 20-1
    for the reasons you state above
    and, rather unimaginatively and for the same reasons that I backed Saint Are and Alvarado E/W at Aintree and Ayr ie solid place history in the race:
    Just a Par 20-1
    All bets E/W 1/4 odds

    #1297994
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15095

    Good luck Green, especially with Theatre Guide and Pendra lol.

    #1298255
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 15095

    Watch your bets…..

    17 still in, but some firms going 3 places already.

    #1298257
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    Can’t blame us VTC – just the 17 and we know for sure that at least two of those won’t be taking part. Really would be daft to offer 4 places on this one.

    Anyone who got on antepost on The Young Master, Whats Happening, Doing Fine and the other guaranteed starts must be laughing though. Inflated prices (many of the initial entries were always going for the Scottish), 4 places and probably something like 10-14 runners on the day.

    #1298313
    msercs
    Participant
    • Total Posts 163

    Paul Nicholls is really sweet on Southfield Theatre. That will do for me.

    Been kept for this race, happy to go with him despite joint top weight.

    Good luck all.
    Martin

    #1298318
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15095

    No probs Soldier, for once (and probably only once lol) I wasn’t having a dig at Corals or the other firms, it was more of a heads up for people who maybe hadn’t noticed that some firms were down to 3 places. I was actually, originally, going to give people the heads up to nip in quick for the 4 places, as I knew some of the 17 weren’t going, so can’t really complain :whistle:

    PS still not a fan of your site, but the good news is I don’t seem to get logged out anymore (touch wood ;-) )

    #1298320
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 15095

    The way this race is cutting up, I won’t be surprised if mine don’t go, but 4 bet Ante-Post, and 3 of them are still there……

    Rock The Kasbah 33’s
    Theatre Guide 40’s
    The Young Master 16’s

    I’m planning to lay a small slice of The Young Master, and Theatre Guide, and hopefully can go close to green without touching my #1 Rock The Kasbah. I’ll see how it goes tomorrow, but won’t want to lay too much on those 2, and if I won’t be trying to go green for the sake of it.

    I just want to even things up a wee bit so that I can have a bit on Benbens if he gets declared. I wouldn’t be put off with the space between this race and Ayr, as other horses have coped ok in the past. He looked as good as ever at Ayr, and at 33’s, he still has some juice in the price. No idea if he’s going though.

    #1298328
    LostSoldier3
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 1874

    Good to hear VTC. The website improvements seem to have coincided with me moving on from the digital team. I’m sure there’s no connection… ;-)

    I was thinking about Rock The Kasbah yesterday. Hobbs really likes this race – remember his interviews after Lacdoudal and Monkerhostin where he said he always loves to aim one at it. Rock The Kasbah has been staying 3m+ much better than I expected lately and the form with American could be really strong.

    On the flipside, I’d guess Sausalito Sunrise was set to be his main dart at this race until he picked up an injury. Perhaps RTK is a bit of an afterthought substitute?

    #1298336
    Racingorchid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 201

    Have TYM at 12/1 and JAP 16/1 for a repeat of last year. Just added Le Reve 16/1 ew, clearly had problems but usually runs well at Sandown and has form tying him in with JAP. One of my favorite races of the whole year, hoping its another classic

    #1298347
    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 714

    The bad news for you racingorchid is that Just A Par and Le Reve are my selections here too. I have Just A Par each way 14-1, and have added Le Reve each way at 20-1, though that bet is only for 3 places

    #1298358
    Avatar photoLemons68
    Participant
    • Total Posts 623

    I have had one bet go westwards with Perfect Candidate not going, so I have added Just A Par win at 10-1

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