Kerry National 2016

A race I look forward to, and dread, in equal measure. I always look forward to it, as it’s the first real sign that the jumpers are returning, but my horrific record in it means that I don’t particularly enjoy trying to dig out the winner. I can safely say I’ve never had the winner.

Admittedly it’s maybe not been a great source of “future stars” over the years, but the first and third in last years renewal, gave us the winners of The Aintree & Irish Nationals.

Last years victor, Rogue Angel, followed up at Fairyhouse, and although he’s obviously up a few pounds for those successes, I wouldn’t be in a rush to write him off. He was always a horse who travelled well in his races, and I had some good days from him, betting in running. He seemed to just go off the boil a bit though, and going into last season, I reckoned his best days may be behind him. Couldn’t have been more wrong, and he looked a rejuvenated character, showing great attitude for both his big wins, and even allowing for that hike in the weights, he looks a leading, if obvious contender, as he starts off a campaign which will surely have Aintree in mind.

He’s one of a number of other contenders from Gigginstown, namely……..

Lord Scoundrel
Killer Crow
Devils Bride
Wrath of Titans
Tiger Roll
Thunder and Roses
Clarcam
First Lieutenant
Folsom Blue

So difficult to pick the bones out of that lot, as difficult to know which ones are primed for it, and it’s not helped by the fact that Killer Crow, Devils Bride, and Wrath of Titans all hold entries for The Kerry Group Handicap Steeplechase at the same track on Sunday, and also with Tiger Roll turning out at Galway tonight. I want to put the lot of them on the back burner just now, certainly until running plans are firmed up, but even at this stage, and despite a few very top notch contenders in there, my attention is drawn to Wrath of Titans and Folsom Blue.

Very much like Rogue Angel, both Wrath of Titans, and Folsom Blue seemed to have went off the boil for a spell, but they seem to have put that behind them, with both having ran very well in the big handicap chases on the final day of The Punchestown Festival. I bet Folsom a couple of times last year, including at Ayr, and he was in the process of running a big race, when he was brought down (by a horse who I had also bet, hoho how I laughed) and his third to Minella Foru in The Paddy Power was also very, very encouraging. He then followed this up with a fine fourth behind Rogue Angel at Fairyhouse. Maybe a bit “in and out”, but he’s got one of these big chases in him for sure, and he’s very much on the radar. Wrath caught the eye in a competitive handicap handicap hurdle at the Galway Festival, before getting a much needed win last time, again over hurdles. As mentioned, he showed well for a long way at The Punchestown Festival, and hopefully the anticipated sounder surface here, will see him put in a big show. Slight headache with that entry on Sunday, but I really hope he goes here. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get in, and he’d be my #1 fancy at the moment, along with……….

…..Mad Brian, who’s a horse I’ve always thought a lot of. I had him down as an Aintree contender a couple of years back, off the back of a big run in The Troytown. He had looked a staying chaser to keep on side, with firstly that Troytown run, followed by running with a lot of credit against very decent opposition in The Topaz at Leapordstown a few weeks later. He then took in a chase at Navan a few weeks later, and unseated at the last when 7, 8 lengths clear. Unfortunately, he then had a lengthy spell on the sidelines and didn’t return until January this year. He took a while to get going, with a couple of spins over hurdles, before lining up in The Midlands National. He simply cruised into contention that day, and looked nailed on a few out. The wheels came off though, and whether or not this was down to stamina issues, or he just wasn’t 100% after his layoff, I don’t know. He still shaped well though last week in a decent little race at Ballinrobe, which would have been short enough for him, and with that run at Uttoxeter in mind, then this trip could just be ideal, and I’m hoping he opens at a fair price.

Might be the heart ruling the head here, but I can’t ignore Aranhil Chief either. A real favourite of mine, and has given me some very decent pay days over the last 3 summers, including at Roscommon in June, and he’s remained in good form since. Maybe just pushing it for win purposes, he’s up 7lbs since Roscommon, but for a horse who’s form normally tails off, then he still seems to be bearing up well, and very much like Mad Brian, I’m hoping he opens at a big price……I’ll certainly be on each way.

Behind Aranhill at Roscommon was the JP owned Sir Abbot, and he makes up a relatively low turnout for the owner, with only Noble Emperor, and Elegant Statesmen joining him. I’d fancy Aranhill to be ahead of Sir Abbot again, and he confirmed the placings when finishing ahead of him again, next time they met at Limerick. Noble Emperor hasn’t been short of headlines, being in the news when Barry Geraghty got his ban in April, and as result hasn’t been seen since. He’s got a few shockers in the locker, but I just feel there’s bags of ability there, and he looks very much like JP’s number one, and targets like this would seem to be the natural progression for him. Elegant Statesmen wouldn’t be without a chance, but he’s another who holds an entry in that chase at the track on Sunday, so couldn’t be certain he’ll head here.

After losing the Potts horses, Elegant Statesmen could give Henry De Bromhead a much needed boost, and he also gives Stellar Notion an entry. Something of a disappointment last year, he’s went the opposite way of the Potts horses, joining the yard a few months back from Paul Nicholls. He made a winning start for the yard over fences, before reverting to type next time. He has though been dropped a few pounds already for that setback, and with him looking attractively weighted, and with the potential to improve for the step up in trip, then no surprise to see him go well. Owner and trainer teamed up with Sadlers Risk for The Munster National last year, and Stellar could be a real dark horse.

Despite his advancing years, former winner Your Busy is still more than capable, and I could see him showing some of the younger bucks a thing or two. Win or lose, I’d be confident he’ll show well for a long way.

From the bigger yards, on top of the Gigginstown Runners, Willie Mullins may have Alelchi Inois & Ballycasey in contention. Alelchi has been in the form of his life this summer, a runway winner last time, with Clarcam a mile back, coming off the back of his game second in The Galway Plate. With another win to his name in June, then he looks rock solid, though there’s just the niggling thought that he pulled up in this last year off of 147, and will come here on 161. It may just be though that he’s a different animal this year. Ballycasey got back to winning ways last time, and after proving his stamina at Aintree, he too ran a blinder in The Galway Plate. Things will be harder here off of 155, but with a few other decent runs last season, not least at Cheltenham, then I don’t think that he’s completely weighted out of it. Kings Wharf isn’t one of the bigger names from the yard, but no denying he’s very consistent, and interesting that WPM even chose to give him an entry, given his lack of experience. Haven’t seen enough from him to bet him for something like this, but he looks one to be wary of.

Gordon Elliot is another of the big names, who is top heavy with Gigginstown runners, but he has some other candidates as well. He’ll be hoping that the step up in trip will be the key to Shadow Catcher, who was another to put in a great performace in The Galway Plate, while Realt Mor, who’s only went up 1lb for an impressive win last time, really catches the eye, and he makes the shortlist. A 1lb rise is very fair.

I don’t like to miss any Jessica Harrington runners, and I follow her runners closely. Her Sandymount Duke, a horse very much on the up over fences, gets an entry, and I’d be surprised if he isn’t near the head of the market. A very nice horse, who’s shown himself more than up for the likes of this, and he could have a big season ahead of him.

There’s plenty more who haven’t got a mention, and I’ll give it another look at the next declaration stage. I wouldn’t be in a rush to rule out anything near the bottom, as 2 of the last 3 winners have been “Reserves”.

The likes of Sandymount Duke, Realt Mor, and Noble Emperor look like major threats then, but no bets as yet……….well it would be hard to with no market formed.

Struggling to see him win, but I’ll have a few quid each way on Aranhill Chief. For win purposes, I’d be very keen on Mad Brian, and despite the more illustrious Gigginstown entries, I’d be equally as keen on Wrath of Titans or Folsom Blue.

I’ll know more once it’s priced up.